AL FAAB Factor: April Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). In fact, this would already have been the third FAAB Factor of the year. Insert crying emoji here. 

However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not — there are probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games to be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. I looked at the Tout Wars (held March 14) and LABR AL-only (held Feb. 29) auctions, and specifically at the players who were cheap and/or endgame buys ($3 or less), as well as those who would up on reserve lists — or who I thought were conspicuously absent from anybody's reserve list — to see if any jumped out as potential values or are otherwise worth talking about.

If there are other players or roster spots you're looking for another perspective on, please chime in below in the comments.

Starting Pitcher

Danny Duffy, Royals: It's been a few years since Duffy was anything special from a fantasy perspective, and the southpaw who once held such promise is now a broken-down 31-year-old with only one double-digit win season on his resume despite making at least 23 starts for six consecutive years. He posted excellent numbers this spring while working to refine his changeup, though, which should be enough to keep a flicker of hope alive that he might have another 2016, or at least a 2017, left in him. Duffy also provides a good opportunity to discuss one impact of a late start and shortened schedule that hasn't gotten a lot of attention yet. Plenty of virtual ink has been spilled talking about the boosted value of players who were expected to miss a significant chunk of the season due to injury, or who had a possible innings cap that will no longer be in effect. More rest and less work could also be a boon to older pitchers, such as Duffy, whose numbers have declined due to wear and tear. An extra couple months of down time could be just what they need to let their elbow, shoulder or whatever body part is aching bounce back. That could mean they end up delivering strong numbers all season, for however much of a season we get, or simply come firing out of the gate and boost their trade value before fading again. Either way, their ROI could end up being higher than expected.

Daulton Jefferies, Athletics: On the list of pitchers who stand to benefit from the lack of an innings restriction, Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk probably top the list. Frankly, if I were drafting or in an auction now, Luzardo would be one of my prime targets — his value in March was based on him potentially providing ace-like ratios and K's but not ace-like innings, so if that particular playing field has been leveled, in theory he should be just as valuable as, say, Zack Greinke or Shane Bieber. The guy who doesn't seem to come up in those discussions is Jefferies, though. He's a step behind Luzardo and Puk on the ladder, and the A's also have young guns Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas locked into rotation spots, but Jefferies still has a ton of upside of his own. If a compacted schedule forces teams to get creative in their rotation plans due to doubleheaders, fewer off days etc., the 24-year-old righty — who is already on the 40-man roster — could find himself in a swing-man sort of role in the majors, not unlike the usage that has made fantasy surprises out of Rays hurlers like Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos.

Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners: A big free-agent signing out of Japan last year, Kikuchi started out his first MLB campaign OK but then saw his numbers collapse. There was no indication of a physical issue, but his fastball velocity was down and his stuff didn't seem as sharp. The 28-year-old is an emotional guy and had some personal things going on in 2019 in addition to the usual transition to North America every Japanese player faces — his father passed away right after Opening Day, while his wife gave birth to their first child in July — so it's possible he simply lost his focus and a handle on his mechanics. Kikuchi was looking good in the spring, with his fastball humming at 96 mph at times, and he was also refining a changeup he rarely used last year. If anyone deserves a mulligan on their 2019 performance, it's him, and he could be a huge bargain in 2020 as a result.

Michael King/Jonathan Loaisiga/Clarke Schmidt, Yankees: Assuming James Paxton is healthy whenever Opening Day finally rolls around, the Yankees' rotation appears set with Gerrit Cole, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. Everybody but Cole has question marks around them from a health perspective (or, in Happ's case, the possibility he's simply done after he couldn't keep the ball in the park in 2019) though, so the team's pitching depth could still play a big factor in the AL East race. Loaisiga has already been pencilled into a swing-man role that could best suit his own fragility; King was the presumed No. 6 starter heading into spring; and Schmidt is the top prospect nearest to the bigs who could force his way into the picture with a fast start in the minors. Any pitcher getting regular starts, or consistent bulk-inning work behind an opener, with the Yankees' offense at his back is worth a fantasy investment, so all of these guys could have their moments in 2020. If you want a deeper cut, you can't rule out Luis Medina tearing through the system to make his debut this season either, especially if it's an "all hands on deck" situation in a tight divisional race.

Matt Shoemaker, Blue Jays: Generally speaking, Toronto isn't the place to look for pitching value, especially in the rotation. Shoemaker looks to be a possible exception to that rule. The veteran hurler hasn't thrown more than 80 innings in a season since 2016, and his litany of injuries would make you think he's the target of some sort of curse, maybe from a disgruntled Angels fan he stiffed for an autograph or something. He was fairly brilliant for his five starts last year, though, and if he can somehow stay healthy he's capable of posting numbers that could make him a right-handed mirror image of Hyun-Jin Ryu. Remember, fewer days in the season just means fewer chances for an "injury-prone" player to hurt himself.

Lewis Thorpe, Twins: The (eventual) offseason addition of Kenta Maeda, and the possibility Rich Hill will be healthy by Opening Day, would seem to fill up the Minnesota rotation. Even if Hill isn't ready, Randy Dobnak appears to be the next man up in the rotation, and Dobnak is a worthy late-draft grab as a result. Hill is 40, though, and Homer Bailey is far from a sure thing either. If that depth gets tested, Thorpe could have an opportunity to prove himself as a viable long-term big-league starter. The lefty struggled in his debut last year, mostly out of the bullpen, but he still posted a 25.0 percent K-rate with similarly dominant strikeout and walk rates at Triple-A. Thorpe has his own somewhat checked injury history, but he seems fully healthy now and at 24 years old, he could have a lot of good years ahead of him.

Relief Pitcher

Carl Edwards Jr./Yoshihisa Hirano/Matt Magill, Mariners: The one closer situation that still seems completely opaque in the AL is in Seattle. Hirano is maybe the favorite after arriving from Arizona, but through his two years in the desert he barely held onto a high-leverage role and never really sniffed ninth-inning duty, going 4-for-9 on save chances. Magill ended last season with the job and pitched reasonably effectively thanks to increased velocity on his fastball, but he never made a Cactus League appearance this spring due to shoulder soreness and has to prove he wasn't a flash in the pan. Then there's Edwards, who was absolutely electric for a couple years in the Cubs' bullpen before completely falling apart in 2019. It's possible the M's have a revolving door at closer, or even a dreaded committee (in which case you can't rule out Justus Sheffield being in the picture too, if the team decides he's not ready yet to start), but the bar would be pretty low for any of these guys to lock it down if they manage to avoid blowing their first few chances. If you are looking for saves depth, stashing one of the trio should be a priority.

First Base

Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles: The 23-year-old will likely never be a star, and the O's have already sent him back to Triple-A on paper, but the door is still wide open for him to see at least the majority of the playing time at first base in Baltimore this season. Trey Mancini's timetable remains uncertain after having a tumor removed from his colon, and Chris Davis is a walking money pit, regardless of his big spring performance. Mountcastle's minor-league numbers are reminiscent of Mancini's in some ways, and he has little left to prove at Norfolk, so he could provide some useful power numbers with a solid batting average if and when he gets his chance.

Second Base

Franklin Barreto/Tony Kemp/Jorge Mateo, Athletics: As it stands, the keystone for Oakland looks like it might be a platoon, or at least a timeshare, between Kemp and Barreto. An expanded roster would allow the club to carry Mateo on the bench as well, perhaps in a utility role. If the trio were to get equal playing time, they'd rank Barreto-Mateo-Kemp in terms of pure fantasy ceiling, and Mateo-Barreto-Kemp in terms of likely 2020 value (with Mateo's speed making the difference). There's no guarantee they get equal playing time, though. In fact, it's very easy to see Kemp's steady but boring performance earning him the lion's share, as Barreto's flopped multiple times before, while Mateo's minor-league track record is very erratic. Kemp isn't without upside — he's hit .312 with 67 steals in roughly two full seasons worth of games at Triple-A — but neither the speed nor the consistent contact have shown up in the bigs, and at 28 he should be in his prime already. Stashing whoever among them is your favorite or comes at the right price makes sense, as if they end up claiming the starting role they could all make some kind of splash in the right circumstances.

Outfield

Anthony Alford/Derek Fisher, Blue Jays: As with Oakland's second-base situation, expanded big-league rosters would help Toronto avoid making a tough decision between players out of minor-league options who are ostensibly fighting for the same job. Alford's a toolsy former prospect who maybe lost too much development time due to injuries to ever amount to anything, but in a carefully managed bench role the 25-year-old could deliver some fantasy utility after he went 4-for-4 in steal attempts this spring. Fisher was picked up from the Astros last year in the Aaron Sanchez deal after he got leapfrogged on the Houston depth chart by the likes of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, and he's so far struggled to prove he's more than a Quad-A guy. I listed my reasons for not being willing to give up on Fisher a couple of weeks ago, but in redraft formats, the best selling point is that he hits left-handed — something none of the other Jays' likely regular outfielders (Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez) can do. If the club does decide it needs a lefty stick in that group, Fisher only has to be better than Billy McKinney to get semi-consistent playing time, and that's a low enough bar to overcome.

Travis Demeritte, Tigers: Detroit brought back Cameron Maybin in the offseason, an odd decision considering they basically had two younger versions of Maybin on the roster already in JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes, but that does give them an athletic trio of outfielders who could end up forming one of the best defensive units in baseball (something to consider if you're looking at picking up a pitcher like Daniel Norris). Then there's Demeritte. Picked up from Atlanta last year, he doesn't have the defensive ability of the other three, but he could provide the power none of them can. DH isn't an option as long as Miguel Cabrera is standing, which sticks the 25-year-old in an outfield corner, but the Tigers may find they need his offense more than they need a slick glove and fairly empty .240 batting average. Christin Stewart could also fill that role, and unlike Demeritte he's a lefty (giving him the same edge Fisher has in Toronto), but Demeritte appears to have surpassed Stewart in terms of pure offensive upside. On a team more clearly in full rebuild mode, that upside should take precedence over a purely theoretical platoon advantage.

Clint Frazier/Aaron Hicks, Yankees: With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton now expected healthy for Opening Day, there once again may not be room for Frazier in the starting lineup — and even his roster spot could be in jeopardy if Hicks is 100 percent healthy too, as Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman appear locked in, and Miguel Andujar will need to get playing time somewhere. Frazier worked hard this spring to improve defensively, but his best chance of providing value in 2020 would seem to come if he's traded. The 25-year-old has lost a lot of his prospect luster the last few years, but a fresh start could be just what he needs to pop. As for Hicks, 2018 will probably end up being the high-water mark of his career, but the note on Shoemaker is the same — a shorter schedule means fewer chances for him to suffer a new injury.