Collette Calls: Shifting Targets

I normally write on Sunday mornings, but the awesomeness of seeing my favorite team clinch the American League pennant for the first time in 12 years led to a rather unproductive Sunday unless you consider laying around being productive. My favorite part about this run at a World Series title is both of my children can enjoy it with me as my kids were 3 and 1 the last time Tampa Bay made it this far. 

The baseball this postseason has been a welcomed distraction from everything else in life these days. We saw both league championship series go seven contested games coming down to the final inning in each game. The NLCS had more offense than the ALCS overall, and it will be an interesting showdown between the big bats and salaries of the Dodgers and the pitching and defense ballers on a budget of Tampa Bay.

The other great part about these games has been the interactions on Twitter from different folks. Two tweets in recent days got me thinking about how to approach hitters in 2021. The first one comes from Joe Sheehan (subscribe to his newsletter!) regarding groundballs:

Joe is right, and Mike Petriello found that the league converted a recorded high of 32.7 percent of groundballs with runners on first base into double plays this season, besting the previous high of 32.5 percent in 2017. 

The other tweet paired nicely with Joe's insight, and it came from Justin Choi who writes for Prospects365:

We used to look at groundballs as a pitcher's best friend because they helped keep the ball in the ballpark. Now, they're even better because teams are becoming increasingly efficient in preventing pulled groundballs from even becoming hits. The above tweet references weighted on base average for groundballs, so the graph below shows what is happening by batting average:

Why is it becoming so increasingly difficult to pull a groundball safely into play? It is due to the league's aggressiveness in shifting year over year. The league shifted in just 14 percent of plate appearances five seasons ago, but shifted 34 percent of the time in 2020:

The number of shifts against left-handed hitters has more than doubled while the shifts against righties, in face of the research against doing so, has nearly quadrupled. This got me thinking about hitters to look at for batting average help who are particularly adept at hitting the ball the other way for base hits. Off the top of your head, you might think of DJ LeMahieu since he led the American League with a .364 average in 2020, but the second baseman is 10th when looking at batting average on opposite field grounders since the start of 2019:

Understand, most hitters are not going up there looking to hit the ball the other way in most situations. That tendency is typically dictated by a runner on base where the hitter wants to at least move the runner over, or defensive alignment that either leaves a hole open or is not defending the bunt. We saw this in the ALCS where George Springer hit the go-ahead single in Game 6 when the Rays moved Brandon Lowe to the left side of second base and the groundball went through the gaping hole. We even saw Brandon Lowe pop up a bunt for a hit the other way in Game 7 because Alex Bregman was playing the shortstop position and could not field a ball that had an xBA of .160 with a 36 degree launch angle and a 39.8 MPH exit velocity.

The number of batted ball events which involve an opposite field grounder are not a large part of a hitter's overall vitae. Rather than just targeting hitters who show a propensity to hit the ball the other way, maybe we should be leery of those who show heavy pulled groundball tendencies. The worst offenders on this list are not exactly auto-fade material given one is likely going to win an MVP award this winter:

That list contains some names we would expect to see, such as Justin Smoak, the retiring Alex Gordon, and some of the more slow-footed pull hitters we envision struggling against shifts. It also includes two top-20 hitters in Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper, but it at least gives us a look into hitters who could continue to struggle for hitting for a better average if their groundball pull tendencies do not change. It would also help frame why Bell had such a terrible season coming off his monster 2019 season as groundballs were truly death to his offensive output. 

Conversely, there is opportunities to look for hidden pitcher gems who are able to generate a healthy dose of pulled groundballs. Before looking at the list, make a mental note of the pitcher type you think will show up on the list and see if you're correct. Here are the top 20 generators of pulled groundballs when combining 2019 and 2020 data:

If you were speculating you would find mostly soft-tossers on this list, you were right. There are not many blazing fastballs on this list, but there are some quality pitchers on this list, including Clayton Kershaw, Mike Soroka Max Fried, Framber Valdez and 2020 surprise Brad Keller. The lesson here would be, if you're going to take chances on lower-velocity pitchers, at least lean toward those with a propensity for allowing pulled groundballs and can also get a few strikeouts while they're at it. 

There are points in the draft where it comes down to mitigating risks, and looking for ways to reduce risks is always a successful strategy. After all, look at the Rockies in 2020. We know what pitching in Denver can do to a pitcher, yet German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland were 1-2-3 in the league for percentage of pulled groundballs in 2020. Two of those three pitchers finished the season with ERA's 3.75 or lower, holding opponents to batting averages of .245, .253, and .277 respectively.