FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

It's a full slate Friday night with multiple high-end pitchers in good situations to succeed. If you prefer the value route, there are options, though it'll take some guts. Either way, the weather looks great for all 15 games.

PITCHING

If you don't normally spend on a pitcher, you may want to change your strategy for this slate. Justin Verlander ($12,200) and Charlie Morton ($11,300) are in almost perfect situations even though they're both coming off iffy outings. Their upside is undeniable, as Verlander has double-digit strikeouts in his last five and Morton has at least nine Ks in three of his last four. Both have also dominated the opposing team this season and that should continue. The A's have a 25.4 K% and .309 wOBA against righties in the last month, while the Tigers are at 26.3% and .290.

Those two will likely be most popular, though there are other high-priced options worth a look. Patrick Corbin ($10,200) also has a nice upside highlighted by his 28.6 K% and while the Brewers are fighting for the playoffs, they've struggled against southpaws since the All-Star break with a 24.6 K% and .289 wOBA. The same goes for Luis Castillo ($11,100), who has a slightly higher 29.5 K%. The Cardinals are in the same position as the Brewers, fighting for the playoffs, yet struggling to hit the ball, sporting a 24.0 K% and .306 OBP against righty arms in the last month. Noah Syndergaard's ($9,800) strikeout totals have dropped in his last two starts, but he's still worth using against the Royals with their .311 wOBA against righty hurlers over the last month.

Vince Velasquez ($7,200) doesn't provide high-end upside, yet he's a cheaper option against a Padres lineup which is striking out fairly often versus righty arms with a 27.2 K% in the last month. In terms of odds, Patrick Sandoval ($7,100) and Mike Leake ($6,900) are viable, but I may prefer Jon Gray ($7,000) a little more. Gray has a slightly better OBP allowed at home (.332) and that number could improve against the Marlins, who own a 25.3 K% and .273 wOBA against righties in the last month.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

The most chalky teams will undoubtedly be the Red Sox and Rockies as huge home favorites with the highest over/unders. Both are worth stacking in cash games, but probably won't result in much success in GPP. Sandy Alcantara has a .370 OBP allowed on the road and that could jump at Coors Field. If you prefer safety, Ryan McMahon ($3,600) and Raimel Tapia ($3,200) both have OBPs above .400 against righties since the beginning of July while Nolan Arenado ($4,500) and Trevor Story ($4,400) bring more consistent power. I recommended Gray in the pitching section, but he's still allowing a .353 OBP to lefty bats at home. Brian Anderson ($3,300) has a .256 ISO in his last 102 plate appearances against righties, though I'd be more comfortable with any lefty Miami puts on the field even if it may only be Curtis Granderson ($3,200) and Isan Diaz ($2,900).

It's the same case at Fenway with Rick Porcello and Aaron Brooks on the mound. Porcello, similar to Gray, is better at home, yet still allowing a .343 wOBA to lefty bats. Brooks is bad everywhere and allowing more than two homers per nine to both sides of the plate. The Orioles are a bit of a GPP route, but they have more lefties than the Marlins with Jonathan Villar ($3,700), Anthony Santander ($3,100) and Jace Peterson ($2,600). Rafael Devers ($4,300) surprisingly isn't that expensive for the matchup given his .433 OBP and .375 ISO in his last 97 PA against righty hurlers.

The Yankees will be popular per usual, but Aaron Civale has allowed nine hits in his first three starts and held the Twins to one run last outing. If you must, Gio Urshela ($4,400) and Mike Tauchman ($3,700) have the best numbers against righties in the last month. It may be easier to stack against Joe Musgrove, who has allowed 26 extra-base hits (7 HR) to 124 lefties faced at home. That's a favorable number for Kyle Schwarber ($3,300), who has a .429 ISO in his last 80 PA against righties, as well as Ian Happ ($3,100) and Jason Heyward ($3,000). 

I'd also look at the Mets against Mike Montgomery, mostly because he won't repeat what he did against the Tigers last start. J.D. Davis ($3,100) and Amed Rosario ($2,500) both have OBPs above .400 against lefties since the break and neither break the bank. 

STACKS

Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks (Orioles)

(3B Rafael Devers - $4,400), (SS Xander Bogaerts - $4,000), (2B Brock Holt - $2,200)

Brooks has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts and the Red Sox have a .216 ISO against righties in the last month. Devers and Bogaerts are easy decisions and Holt is at least respectable against righties with a .411 OBP in his last 56 PA. If Holt doesn't start, Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2,500) is the next choice if you need to save money. 

Rays vs. Daniel Norris (Tigers)

(OF Tommy Pham - $3,600), (C Travis d'Arnaud - $3,100), (2B Mike Brosseau - $2,300)

Norris has allowed five home runs in his last two starts against the White Sox and Royals, and that only adds to his .350 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate. Given those numbers, the Rays are pretty cost effective. Pham is a must with a .415 OBP in his last 63 PA while both d'Arnaud and Brosseau are above .340 in the last two months with more power.

Reds vs. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

(OF Jesse Winker - $3,000), (SS Freddy Galvis - $2,700), (C Tucker Barnhart - $2,900

Wainwright has much worse numbers on the road, allowing a .369 wOBA and .412 OBP to lefty hitters. In this spot a month ago, he gave up nine hits and seven runs in 3.1 innings. This stack is all about value and I'm betting on Galvis to start due to his .467 OBP in his 15 PA against Wainwright. Barnhart has a .476 OBP in his last 52 PA against righties while Winker is at .440 in his last 91. If Galvis doesn't start, you can throw Josh VanMeter ($2,400) in that spot, or use both of them if you want.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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