The Z Files: Early Season Power Targets

The Z Files: Early Season Power Targets

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Regular readers of this space know I'm a big fan of using average exit velocity on fly balls and fly ball distance as proxies for power. With a little over a month in the books, I thought it would be interesting to check out some early power numbers with an eye on unearthing some batters with a surge in their future, as well as overperformers.

Two different approaches will be utilized. The first identifies players performing above or below normal levels, with the second focusing on hitters doing what is expected but with some early good or bad luck.

High Average Fly Ball Distance

The first group of hitters have an average fly ball distance well above their norm. It could be a small sample anomaly, or perhaps representative of a new skill level with respect to increased average exit velocity.

Player# Fly balls2021 FB AEVFBDstHRCareer FB AEV
Evan Longoria

14

100.7

335.6

4

95.6

Byron Buxton

19

100.1

361.9

9

95.9

Mike Trout

16

99.5

363.7

8

93.9

Buster Posey

13

98

352.1

7

93.6

Andrew McCutchen

13

97.9

359.9

4

93.1

Salvador Perez

24

97.8

344.5

6

93.2

Tyler Naquin

19

96.8

335.5

6

92.8

On paper, the idea is to be ready for a lower average exit velocity the rest of the season, with a likely drop in homers. To be honest, one doesn't need next-level analysis to draw this conclusion as it unlikely any of these hitters are doing something to

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
SXM Video: Week 13 Waiver Wire Adds, Shallow Leagues
SXM Video: Week 13 Waiver Wire Adds, Shallow Leagues
MLB FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
MLB FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything
Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything
DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks
DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks