Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Thursday Night Special

RB Cam Akers vs. NE — UPGRADE ⬆️

29% started on Yahoo, 11% on ESPN

Akers has been the Rams' lead runner since the midpoint of their Week 12 contest, taking 54 percent snap share and eight carries after halftime in a 23-20 loss to the 49ers. He then got 62 percent of snaps and 21 carries in the Week 13 win over Arizona, though Darrell Henderson was still technically the starter.

If you're willing to stomach a little risk, Akers offers blow-up potential in the event his role stays similar to what we saw last week. The Patriots have been average in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs (15th) and opponent YPC (17th), plus they're 27th in run-defense DVOA (0.8%). They've also been inconsistent — to say the least — on offense, so it's hard to envision another blowout win, as the Rams are a far cry from the Chargers when it comes to coaching and defensive personnel.

The Rams defense has been a tough matchup for all positions this season, ranking first in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, sixth against RBs, first against WRs and 18th against TEs (6.1 YPT on 8.1 targets per targets). Cam Newton, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd should all be downgraded, with New England's implied total of 19.75 points being the fourth lowest of Week 14.

The Rams' passing game offers more potential, though the Patriots did a number on Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert the past two weeks, so we should probably view this as an average to below-average matchup for Jared Goff, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.

For what it's worth, the Rams had a lot of success with two-TE formations in Sunday's win over the Cardinals — something I discussed earlier this week in Targets, Routes & Snaps. Those heavier looks could minimize the impact of New England's strength, a cornerback group that goes four deep with Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones and Devin McCourty.

Jackson and Jones are listed as questionable this week, and Jones actually appears in some danger of not playing. That might help Kupp find a little more room in the middle of the field, but McCourty more than held his own this past Sunday when he filled in for Jones against Keenan Allen and the Chargers.

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Quarterback

• Justin Herbert vs. ATL

71% on Yahoo, 72% on ESPN

Herbert's last two games were the two worst of his young career, and it's really been about a month now in which his fantasy value has come from volume more than efficiency. There may be something to it, but a matchup with Atlanta should allow the rookie to put up nice fantasy numbers even if he continues to make some mistakes and the team around him continues to play poorly. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 24.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 19th in pass-defense DVOA (11.9%) and 29th in opponent NY/A (7/2). 

• Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET; Lamar Jackson, BAL at CLE; Ryan Tannehill, TEN at JAX; Matt Ryan, ATL at LAC; Philip Rivers, IND at LV; Mike Glennon, JAX vs. TEN

Running Back

• Jonathan Taylor at LV

75% on Yahoo, 65% on ESPN

Taylor just sandwiched two big games around a COVID-list absence, rumbling for 249 yards on 42 touches in wins over the Packers (Week 11) and Texans (Week 13). Nyheim Hines got only 18 touches between those two games and Jordan Wilkins another 12, while Taylor took 58 percent of the opportunities and played about half of the offensive snaps.

The rookie should see around 15 touches again, and he'll be getting them against a Raiders team that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.2), 31st in run-defense DVOA (6.0%) and 20th in opponent YPC (4.5). The Vegas defense was last seen getting gouged by Ty Johnson, one week after enabling the best game of Ito Smith's less-than-illustrious career.

• Myles Gaskin vs. KC

58% on Yahoo, 60% on ESPN

The Chiefs still have the same approach to run defense, relying on Patrick Mahomes to put up enough points so that it doesn't really matter. It's hard to argue with the results, as the Chiefs have gone 11-1 while ranking 30th in run-defense DVOA (2.7%) and 30th in YPC (4.8). Gaskin could have a huge game if the Dolphins stay within striking distance, and his 71 percent snap share from Week 13 suggests he'll still get some of those targets that gave him a solid 10-point floor over the first two months of the season.

• Honorable Mentions: D'Andre Swift, DET vs. GB; Cam Akers, LAR vs. NE; Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. DAL; Jamaal Williams, GB at DET

Wide Receiver

• DJ Chark vs. TEN

43% on Yahoo, 35% on ESPN

We've seen two big games and little else from Chark, who has failed to reach double-digit PPR points in half his games, including each of the last three. None of this exactly screams START, but he did lead the Jags in targets the last two times he played, and the 87 percent snap share last week suggests his rib injury is no longer a major concern. Chark could have his third big game of the season this week, facing a shootout-prone Titans team that ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.6), 30th in pass-defense DVOA (25.4%) and 24th in opponent NY/A (6.8).

• Robby Anderson vs. DEN

35% on Yahoo, 26% on ESPN

This matchup doesn't look great on paper, with the Broncos sitting top 10 in most pass-defense stats after they made Patrick Mahomes look human last week. However, Anderson is averaging 76 yards per game this year, and his downward trend for volume should reverse course for at least one week. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel have both been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and it isn't clear Moore's ankle will be healthy enough to allow for an appearance even if he's made eligible before Sunday. It also isn't clear if target hog Christian McCaffrey will play, with a thigh/quad injury complicating his expected return from an AC joint sprain.

• Honorable Mentions: Corey Davis, TEN at JAX; Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & Antonio Brown, TB vs. MIN; Mike Williams, LAC vs. ATL; T.Y. Hilton & Michael Pittman, IND at LV; Christian Kirk, ARZ at NYG

Tight End

• Robert Tonyan at DET

61% started on Yahoo, 50% on ESPN

While Lions haven't given up a lot of fantasy points to tight ends, their defense has been an embarrassment in nearly every other regard. It isn't long-term sustainable for Tonyan to score a touchdown on every sixth target, but that doesn't mean he won't score another one this week, with the Packers playing in a dome and carrying a 31.25 implied total. Tonyan hit paydirt the past three weeks, seeing exactly five targets in each game. 

• Honorable Mentions: Mark Andrews, BAL at CLE; Hayden Hurst, ATL at LAC

Kicker

• Mason Crosby at DET

34% started on Yahoo, 32% on ESPN

Crosby will be kicking in a dome for the team with the top implied total of the week. He'll likely end up kicking more PATs than field goals, but that at least gives him a nice floor, and he did have some big games earlier in the season.

• Honorable Mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. NYJ; Rodrigo Blankenship, IND at LV; Ryan Succop, TB vs. MIN; Michael Badgley, LAC vs. ATL

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Quarterback

• Ben Roethlisberger at BUF

45% started on Yahoo, 43% on ESPN

The Bills have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but their defense has played much better since mid-October, hail marys notwithstanding. While massive volume gives Roethlisberger a nice floor, his complete lack of rushing production really stands out when he isn't efficient as a passer. He's reached 20 fantasy points in just four of 12 games this season, and he hasn't scored 30 since Week 10 of 2018. He's also coming off three straight games below 6.0 YPA, and the Steelers might actually try to run the ball now that James Conner is back in action.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Cam Newton, NE at LAR; Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. NO

Running Back

• Raheem Mostert vs. WAS

66% on Yahoo, 61% on ESPN

I thought Mostert would get more work in his second game back from a prolonged absence, but his snap share barely went up (40% to 44%) and his carries actually dropped (from 16 to nine). Those two games featured a near-even split between Mostert and Jeff Wilson, and there's still the lingering threat of Tevin Coleman or Jerick McKinnon poaching a few touches. 

The workload uncertainty is less bothersome in a good matchup, but Sunday's game against Washington seems more likely to be a slugfest (43 o/u). Washington ranks third in fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.4), 11th in opponent YPC (4.1) and 10th in run-defense DVOA (-17.8%), after shutting down Benny Snell, Ezekiel Elliott and Giovani Bernard the past three weeks. D'Andre Swift back in Week 10 was the last running back to reach even 20 rushing yards against Washington.

• Kareem Hunt vs. BAL

64% on Yahoo, 61% on ESPN

Hunt is a good player, make no mistake about it. He just isn't on the same level as Nick Chubb as a pure runner, which is why Chubb gets most of Cleveland's carries prior to the fourth quarter of games. The Browns then turn to Hunt if they have a multi-score lead or need to go pass-heavy in catch-up mode, while Chubb tends to get more work if it's a tight contest. 

This week's matchup with Baltimore should be the latter, and the huge playoff implications likely outweigh any concern about overworking Chubb. One might think the 9-3 Browns are a near-lock for a wild-card spot, but 10 wins won't automatically be enough in the AFC this year, and Cleveland's Week 15 road game against the Giants no longer looks like a cakewalk.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Miles Sanders, PHI vs. NO; Damien Harris, NE at LAR; Zack Moss, BUF vs. PIT

Wide Receiver

• Chase Claypool at BUF

57% on Yahoo, 56% on ESPN

Claypool has all the same matchup concerns we discussed with Roethlisberger, plus he faces the threat of losing snaps to James Washington. The rookie wideout averaged nine targets on 60%, 62% and 63% snap shares Weeks 10-12, but he then plummeted to four targets and 38 yards when his snaps dropped to 44% last week. The Steelers want Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster on the field as much as possible, so we could see Claypool rotating on and off the field again if the Steelers want Washington to have a significant role.

• DeVante Parker vs. KC

57% on Yahoo, 60% on ESPN

Parker saw seven or more targets each of the past five weeks, but he still can't seem to get it done with Tua Tagovailoa playing quarterback. The veteran wideout has managed just 16-151-2 on his 28 targets from the rookie, with his 5.4 YPT a far cry from the 8.9 mark he sports on Ryan Fitzpatrick's throws. While this matchup does give Parker a decent shot at some extra volume in negative game script, it also amplified his efficiency concerns, as Kansas City ranks third in both YPT (7.4) and fantasy points allowed (26.3) to wide receivers. The Chiefs may be soft up the middle, but they usually do a good job pressuring QBs and covering wideouts.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jerry Jeudy, DEN at CAR; Sammy Watkins, KC at MIA; Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. PIT; Jakobi Meyers, NE at LAR

Tight End

• Dallas Goedert vs. NO

56% on Yahoo, 53% on ESPN

Goedert is the one Eagles pass catcher who survived the downfall of Carson Wentz, but it's asking too much for his production to continue, as the team figures to shift toward more running with Jalen Hurts taking the snaps. This also happens to be Zach Ertz's second game back from a lengthy absence, and we already saw Goedert's snap share slip from 100 percent in Weeks 11-12 down to 84 percent with Ertz back in the lineup last week.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jared Cook, NO at PHI; Austin Hooper, CLE vs. BAL

Kicker

• Jason Sanders vs. KC

74% on Yahoo, 74% on ESPN

Sanders scored double-digit fantasy points each of the past five weeks, with the Dolphins going 4-1 against a slate of teams that are all at .500 or below. This week they'll be facing the Chiefs and are listed as seven-point underdogs, with an implied total of 21.25. 

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Tyler Bass, BUF vs. PIT

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-69 percent rostered)

QB Taysom Hill at PHI

QB Philip Rivers at LV

RB Cam Akers vs. NE

RB Giovani Bernard vs. DAL

RB J.D. McKissic at SF

RB Devontae Booker vs. IND

WR Antonio Brown vs. MIN

WR Cole Beasley vs. PIT

WR Mike Williams vs. ATL

WR Michael Pittman at LV

WR T.Y. Hilton at LV

TE Logan Thomas at SF

K Mason Crosby at DET

K Rodrigo Blankenship, IND at LV

D/ST San Francisco 49ers vs. WAS

D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. MIN

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-39 percent rostered)

QB Mitchell Trubisky vs. HOU

QB Jalen Hurts vs. NO

RB Ty Johnson at SEA

RB Kalen Ballage vs. ATL

WR Allen Lazard at DET

WR Nelson Agholor vs. IND

TE Jordan Reed vs. WAS

TE Dalton Schultz at CIN

K Ryan Succop vs. MIN

K Joey Slye vs. DEN

D/ST Carolina Panthers vs. DEN

D/ST Arizona Cardinals at NYG

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Mike Glennon vs. TEN

QB Nick Mullens vs. WAS

RB Jeff Wilson vs. WAS

RB Peyton Barber at SF

WR KJ Hamler at CAR

WR Josh Reynolds vs. NE

TE Cole Kmet vs. HOU

TE Jordan Akins at CHI

K Matt Gay vs. NE

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals vs. DAL

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.