This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Louisville Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Louisville card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Puja Tomar (8-4-0) v. Rayanne Amanda (14-7-0)
Puja Tomar - Height: 5'1" - Reach: N/A – N/A
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Rayanne Amanda - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: The night's first fight features two low-level fighters vying for their first wins in the UFC. Tomar will have the edge on the feet, while Amanda will have the edge on the mat. I expect this to be close, with the winner providing a low score for DFS purposes.
UFC Louisville Pick: Amanda
Cody Stamann (21-6-1) v. Taylor Lapilus (19-4-0)
Cody Stamann - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 21 wins
Taylor Lapilus - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: If this fight stays on the feet, it will be a close fight, with Lapilus likely winning a low-scoring decision. If Stamann chooses to use his wrestling, he could be one of the higher-scoring fighters on the slate. Lapilus has been taken down 10 times over his last three fights, leaving Stamann with all the incentive to wrestle.
UFC Louisville Pick: Stamann
Eduarda Moura (10-0-0) v. Denise Gomes (8-3-0)
Eduarda Moura - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
Denise Gomes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a good fight to target for GPP contests, as one of these ladies could wind up with an early finish within the first two rounds. Gomes has fought better competition, but Moura is the better overall fighter, and I expect her to come away with the win.
UFC Louisville Pick: Moura
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0) v. John Castaneda (21-6-0)
Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Given Marcos's takedown defense, I expect this to play out on the feet. Marcos will have a considerable speed advantage, while Castaneda will have a slight power advantage. I would only expect a high score with a finish within the first two rounds, but Marcos is in an excellent spot to extend his winning streak.
UFC Louisville Pick: Marcos
Andrea Lee (13-9-0) v. Montana De La Rosa (12-9-1)
Andrea Lee - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Montana De La Rosa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: It is difficult to expect much from either of these fighters, as both have underwhelmed in the UFC. De La Rosa likely has a slight grappling advantage, while Lee has a considerable edge on the feet. Lee should win this fight, as she has a far better body of work and competition. However, I would not be surprised if she lost for a fifth consecutive fight. A low score is likely for the winner.
UFC Louisville Pick: Lee
Brad Katona (13-3-0) v. Jesse Butler (12-5-0)
Brad Katona - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 13 wins
Jesse Butler - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Katona has Butler outclassed in every facet of the game. However, he does not typically score well in DFS. Butler was knocked out in less than a minute in his UFC debut, adding some hope that Katona could record his first UFC finish. Katona will be popular in all contests.
UFC Louisville Pick: Katona
Charlie Radtke (9-3-0) v. Carlos Prates (18-6-0)
Charlie Radtke - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Carlos Prates - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun matchup between two newer UFC fighters and an excellent fight to target for GPP contests. An early finish is likely from one of them. Prates is the safer play, as he is more technical and less wild.
UFC Louisville Pick: Prates
Thiago Moises (18-7-0) v. L'udovit Klein (21-4-1)
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: The grappling will be close in this matchup, with Moises having a slight edge. However, Klein will feature a significant edge in striking. His takedown defense is also solid, so I expect most of the fight to play out on the feet. It will be close at times, but Klein should pull through.
UFC Louisville Pick: Klein
Punahele Soriano (9-4-0) v. Miguel Baeza (10-3-0)
Punahele Soriano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Miguel Baeza - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is more of a GPP type of fight. Punahele sports a lot of power but lacks fight IQ and any ground game. Baeza has not fought in over two years, so it is difficult to expect much out of him. Baeza throws more volume and would be the fighter more likely to shoot for a takedown, but he has been knocked out twice before.
UFC Louisville Pick: Baeza
Julian Marquez (9-4-0) v. Zachary Reese (6-1-0)
Julian Marquez - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Zachary Reese - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Reese was unable to show anything he is capable of in his debut, as he was slammed in less than two minutes for a knockout loss. Marquez has had a middling UFC career, beating low-level fighters and losing to high-level fighters. Though we have yet to see much of Reese, I expect Marquez to struggle with his reach. This will likely be a solid fight to target for GPP, as it should end early.
UFC Louisville Pick: Reese
Brunno Ferreira (11-1-0) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (15-5-0)
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
Dustin Stoltzfus - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferreira will be one of the most popular picks on the slate, as he is expected to end this fight early by knockout. Stoltzfus is outmatched in this one and will be lucky to make it out of the first round.
UFC Louisville Pick: Ferreira
Raul Rosas Jr. (8-1-0) v. Ricky Turcios (12-3-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Ricky Turcios - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas continues to show why he is in the UFC but draws his toughest test to date in Turcios. He will have an edge on the mat and flashed some nice power in his last fight. Turcios is not a huge finisher, but he is as tough as they come and sports an excellent all-around game. Rosas will be the obvious choice for most, but Turcios could have his way if this stays on the feet. However, Turcios was taken down seven times in his last fight, which is a major red flag going up against a fighter like Rosas.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Rosas Jr.
Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) v. Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1)
Dominick Reyes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Dustin Jacoby - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Reyes has lost four straight and this matchup does not get any easier for him. Jacoby should be better everywhere and dominate this fight from start to finish. He makes an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Louisville Pick: Jacoby
Jared Cannonier (17-6-0) v. Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0)
Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Nassourdine Imavov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If we see the version of Cannonier we saw in his most recent fight, the rest of the division should be scared. It was easily the most complete we have seen him, totaling almost 250 strikes and adding four takedowns to boot. Imavov was also dominant in his most recent win but will be at a disadvantage everywhere. However, Cannonier is also 40 now, and father time catches up to everyone at some point. This fight could surprise if he has slowed down at all.
UFC Louisville Pick: Cannonier
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
