2022 Best Ball Strategy: Late-Round Stacks (and Mid-Round Too)

2022 Best Ball Strategy: Late-Round Stacks (and Mid-Round Too)

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

If you've ever drafted teams in any of these big best-ball tournaments, you've been a victim at some point or another. Maybe you took Stefon Diggs in Round 1, planning to pair him with Josh Allen in Round 3, only to watch some moron who can't even win his home league draft Allen 10 spots ahead of ADP.

Then, after explaining to your dog/cat what an idiot this person is, you realize it's not actually a big deal. There's plenty of time to pivot to, say, A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts, so you scoop up AJB in Round 3 with intentions of adding his QB in the fifth or sixth. Five minutes later, you slam your laptop in disgust and cuss out your golden retriever when Hurts is taken one pick before your turn.

Even worse, the other QB you like in that range, Kyler Murray, is also off the board already. Feeling the creep of stack anxiety, you consider drafting Tom Brady or Joe Burrow 15-20 spots ahead of where you have them ranked. But you don't, because you're too smart for that (partially good genetics, partially from reading awesome article like this one).

Instead, you notice that Murray and Hurts going early opens up unexpected value at other positions. You wisely take the value, figuring you still have 15 rounds to make the stacking thing work. 

It is, of course, important to be aware of the specifics of the contest. In formats with playoffs, we don't need a team that's completely dominant start-to-finish. It's possible to win without a premium QB or TE, as making the playoffs usually just requires finishing top two in league of 12. This is the format used on DraftKings and Underdog, where you can win a tourney with a team that finished second in its league during the regular season. (A couple weeks ago, I wrote a more detailed article on strategy for these huge, playoff-centric tournaments.)

On the other hand, we have sites like Drafters and BB10s that merely use cumulative scoring throughout the season to determine champs. Dominating a huge field from start to finish requires having some of the highest-scoring players at every position. Last year, a large contest might've had hundreds or even thousands of teams with both Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp. Some of those also had Austin Ekeler, or perhaps Justin Jefferson

There's no way you're finishing Top 5 in a tourney like that with Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Mac Jones as your QBs. Which isn't to say you need to take Josh Alen or Justin Herbert, but you do at least have to guess right on one of the second/third-tier guys who ends up producing as a high-end QB1. Same deal at tight end, which is why I love the premium guys in this format (even a big breakout at TE usually falls hundreds of yards shy of what Travis Kelce does annually).

Still, we'll want to target late-round stacks even in cumulative scoring formats, though perhaps in addition to high-profile stacks rather than an either/or. And of course, it's also nice to have multiple stacks on DK and UD, especially if you make it to the big Week 17 shootout with hundreds of other finalists. Now let's take a look at some of the more interesting stacks that won't require an early round pick.

Mid-Round Magic

QB Trey Lance (Round 7) + WR Brandon Aiyuk (Round 8)

I'm mostly fading Aiyuk this year because I worry the offense will become so ground-heavy under Lance, but there's merit to the third-year wideout as an eighth-round pick if we've already made a bet on the 49ers. I'm also totally fine with naked Lance (so is his girlfriend, hopefully), as there's definitely a scenario where he outperforms ADP even if none of his pass catchers do.  You may have heard that rushing production is important for QBs in fantasy.

    

WR Chris Godwin (R6) + QB Tom Brady (R7)

Godwin is a tougher sell in other formats on account of the late-season ACL/MCL tear, but he's worth a look on DK and UD where the playoffs carry so much weight. Godwin doesn't need to have a great season to be worth a sixth-round pick; he just needs to get back in form by December. For cumulative scoring sites like Drafters and BB10s, I'd lean more toward Russell Gage, theoretically, except that his sixth-round ADP makes me somewhat nauseous. TE Cameron Brate is also an option as a cheap third wheel outside the Top 150.

    

WR Adam Thielen (R6) + QB Kirk Cousins (R9-10) + TE Irv Smith (R10-11)

Stacking the Vikings without Justin Jefferson is about as much fun as being a Jets fan. But even deities can get hurt, and the prices on Thielen and Smith are reasonable enough that they can beat ADP even if JJ stays healthy and productive. It would require a big season from Kirk Cousins, who could throw more passes under new coach Kevin O'Connell (formerly of the Rams). The lack of rushing stats means Cousins won't finish Top 5 in points per game at QB even if things break right, but Top 10 is well within reach.

     

WR Hunter Renfrow (R6-7) + QB Derek Carr (R8-9)

Carr might actually be ahead of Cousins if we're talking mid-range QBs who have a chance to put up career-best fantasy stats under a new coaching staff. That's because Carr got even more of a boost this offseason, adding Davante Adams to a previously mediocre WR group. People thus assume Renfrow's target share will plummet, but that might not be the case given that Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs combined for 165 looks last year. Renfrow's target share was a solid but unspectacular 21.2 percent, and it's not unreasonable for someone to hit 19-20 percent as Option C in a passing game where Option D might be Demarcus Robinson or Keelan Cole

Also consider rookie RB Zamir White (R17-18) as a third wheel here, with the Raiders otherwise carrying passing-down specialists and seventh-round pick Brittain Brown behind Josh Jacobs on their backfield depth chart.

       

Mixed Bag

WR Drake London (R7-8) + QB Marcus Mariota (R16-18) + WR Bryan Edwards (R18-20)

For the record, I love Kyle Pitts and can't stop drafting him. But he's usually a third-round pick, and thus overqualified for this exercise. So while the Pitts-London-Mariota stack is probably better, London-Mariota-Edwards works as a fallback. The former Raiders wideout could earn a starting job (and more targets) in a Falcons offense with minimal WR depth beyond London, while Mariota offers running stats to make up for his mediocre passing. 

One note: I prefer this stack in cumulative scoring tournaments, as there's more risk of missed games for Mariota as the season moves along (be it via benching or injury). The stack is slightly less attractive on DK and Underdog, where the playoff format means we need our teams to be at their best from mid-December to early January.

       

RB Breece Hall (R4-5) + WR Elijah Moore (R6-7) + QB Zach Wilson (R13-15)

Hall and Moore both look like excellent football players, while Wilson is the other kind of player. But maybe Wilson takes a big step forward on the gridiron, in which case Hall and Moore both would be likely to outperform ADP. I don't really buy it after the brutal rookie season, but this is the kind of thing you occasionally take a shot on in big tournaments anyway. If I'm wrong about Wilson, the upside relative to draft cost for the whole stack becomes fantastic. (This one is kind of cheating given Hall's fourth/fifth-round ADP, but we can also sub in Michael Carter around Round 12 instead).

     

WR Treylon Burks (R8-9) + WR Robert Woods (R9-10) + QB Ryan Tannehill (R15-16)

H/T to Big Dave for this one. I haven't actually drafted it yet but probably should, if only because of the upside in the event Tennessee ends up throwing a bunch more than in past years. That won't be the plan entering the season, of course, so the hope with this stack is that the team disappoints and/or Derrick Henry suffers an injury. Both scenarios would also figure to benefit Dontrell Hilliard, a clear favorite for the third-down role on a team that otherwise has early down backs or special teamers on its RB depth chart. Hilliard typically is available in the final two rounds of drafts.

     

Last Call

QB Davis Mills (R16-17) + TE Brevin Jordan (R17-18)

I'd probably get fired if I was honest about how much I like this stack. Mills is one my preferred QB3s, while Jordan is pretty much the only TE3 I have any interest in. They're a perfect duo for teams that go light on QB/TE in earlier rounds and thus decide to roster three players at both positions. Not my favorite build, but occasionally that's how the cookie crumbles. 

For what it's worth (probably not much), Jordan is also a personal favorite of mine in deep-ish dynasty leagues. He had 576 yards and seven TDs in eight games his junior year (2020) at Miami, then ran a 4.64 40 at last year's Combine when he was 20 years old. Jordan should've been a Day 2 pick, and he was Houston's primary receiving tight end for the second half of his age-21 rookie season, putting up 20-178-3 on 28 targets in nine games. 

   

TE David Njoku (R13-15) + QB Deshaun Watson (R15-17) + WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (R18-20)

All three have ADPs outside the Top 170 on DraftKings, with many expecting Watson to be suspended for most or all of the season. That's definitely possible, and perhaps even likely, but the price is cheap enough to be worth the risk, especially if you get stuck with a roster that otherwise lacks upside at QB and TE. If you really want to get wild, combine this stack with a Mariota/Falcons stack, figuring MM is more likely to put up numbers early in the season while Watson is more likely to be helpful late in the year.

Why DPJ over David Bell? Well, I'd rather have the latter in dynasty, but the former is cheaper and much more likely to see deep targets. That's especially relevant when our winning scenario involves an active and productive Watson, who has never been shy about throwing deep. Peoples-Jones has a 16.0 aDOT and 12.0 YPT on 75 targets through two pro seasons.

   

WR Curtis Samuel (R16) + QB Carson Wentz (R17)

Unexciting, but dirt-cheap. I won't waste any time touting Wentz, who is bad enough to get benched even though Taylor Heinicke is no better than a mid-to-high-end backup. Another option here is to take rookie first-round pick Jahan Dotson in Round 12 instead of Samuel later on. I'm less interested in TE Logan Thomas, now 31 and still rehabbing from ACL surgery in mid-December. Then again, he's cheap enough (Round 18 ADP) to make a case if you already have Wentz and feel like you need a third tight end.

    

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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