UFC Vegas 109 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
The UFC is back at the APEX center for the second weekend in a row, with fights implicating both the middleweight and flyweight rankings scheduled. The main thing standing out about this 11-fight card is that it's dominated by heavy favorites. At publication, the smallest betting favorite was (-198), suggesting a lot of lopsided fights. So, we'll have to dive into strategy a bit here, as well as take a stab at a few underdogs worth backing.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) vs. Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Dolidze ($7,500), Hernandez ($8,700)
Betting Odds: Dolidze (+270), Hernandez (-340)
Dolidze enters his second consecutive main-event spot on a three-fight winning streak. He avenged a loss to Marvin Vettori in a five-round unanimous decision last March, had a first-round stoppage against Kevin Holland before that, and took a decision against veteran Anthony Smith the previous June. The Holland win was the most impressive on paper, but it was aided a bit by an injury and the fact that Holland was fighting up a weight class.
Hernandez enters on an even bigger tear, having won seven fights in a row dating back to 2021. Two of those wins were against ranked middleweights (Brendan Allen, Roman Kopylov), and he has a stoppage against Michel Pereira in which he landed a whopping 152 significant strikes. He's also getting his second headline billing here, and rightfully so.
Both fighters have racked up double-digit UFC appearances, so the statistical sample sizes are meaningful. When comparing the two, it's Hernandez that comes out ahead in just about every category.
Striking-wise, Hernandez lands more volume (4.50 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.58 for Dolidze). He also gets hit significantly less (2.61 strikes absorbed, compared to 3.56 for Dolidze).
Wrestling is what really separates the two men, however. Hernandez averages a stellar 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. He has three or more takedowns in six consecutive fights -- a streak that includes four finishes. Dolidze wrestles a little bit (1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes), but defends takedowns at a poor 33 percent clip. That's going to be an issue here.
Mix the wrestling advantage with the fact that Hernandez is five years younger and has even more momentum, and Hernandez has to be the pick.
That said, this is a card characterized by heavy favorites. With only 11 fights to pick from, I couldn't blame anyone for wanting a piece of Dolidze. It's a five-round fight with approximately (-240) odds to go to the judges, so even the loser could rack up a strong fantasy score. Mass-entry players will want both sides, but the heavier exposure should definitely be to Hernandez.
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Hernandez
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight
Steve Erceg (12-4-0) vs. Ode Osbourne (13-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Erceg ($9,100), Osbourne ($7,100)
Betting Odds: Erceg (-560), Osbourne (+370)
Originally scheduled to face Alex Perez and later Hyun Sung Park, Erceg ends up drawing Osbourne here after Park was pulled to save last week's main event. Erceg will have had just over a week to prepare for yet another opponent change.
Osbourne gets a chance to make an immediate statement in the division as a result, though the cards are stacked against him. Always long on potential and short on results, Osbourne got a much-needed victory over Luis Gurule last April. It snapped a three-fight losing streak, earned him a Performance of the Night bonus and quite possibly saved his job in the process.
I've always thought Osbourne was better than what his results indicated. He has a massive reach (73 inches) for the flyweight division, and when he does win, it tends to be via stoppage, which is rare at 125 pounds. There's real stopping power in his hands, but he gets hit a bit too much, sporting a negative striking differential.
Erceg is coming off a three-fight losing streak of his own, so some might be surprised to see him as a (-560) betting favorite. Upon further examination, however, Erceg was rushed into a title fight against Alexandre Pantoja. He showed incredible toughness in hanging around for all five rounds, but it was clear Pantoja is a level above. His next two losses were to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno, the UFC's No. 6 and No. 2-ranked flyweights, respectively. This is clearly the UFC setting him up for a bounce-back opportunity.
It's easy to understand why Erceg is the favorite despite the losing streak. The caliber of competition each fighter has faced is worlds apart. For comparison, Osbourne's best win is against Charles Johnson, who isn't even ranked.
However, I'm going to go way, way out on a limb here. Erceg took a significant beating against Pantoja and followed it up with a first-round stoppage defeat. He can be hit (4.03 significant strikes absorbed per minute), and Osbourne is capable of finding the power shot. Is Erceg the same fighter he was when he debuted? Is he in the right headspace to bounce back from the losing streak?
With 11 lopsided fights on the card, you have to make a stand somewhere, so this is my big GPP swing. Even if Erceg wins, I don't think he's a (-540) favorite. And you have to be able to actually make a lineup under the salary cap -- this is one way to do it.
Even if you're a cash game player who's not with me, you can get 8:1 odds on Osbourne by knockout. Perhaps that's worth a sprinkle -- it's his only path to victory.
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Osbourne
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Women's Strawweight
Iasmin Lucindo (17-6-0) vs. Angela Hill (18-14-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lucindo ($8,300), Hill ($7,900)
Betting Odds: Lucindo (-198), Hill (+164)
Here we have an up-and-coming prospect against a veteran gatekeeper. It's as straightforward as that.
Lucindo's ascension up the women's strawweight rankings was halted in March with a unanimous decision loss to Amanda Lemos. Prior to that, she had been on a four-fight winning streak. However, of her resume today, only Lemos still sits in the UFC women's strawweight rankings.
Hill continues to go about her business at the age of 40, winning three of her last four fights. Even her recent losses have been respectable -- a unanimous decision to No. 7-ranked Tabatha Ricci (in which she out-landed her 112-101 in the significant striking department), and a Fight of the Night effort against No. 6-ranked Mackenzie Dern.
All told, Hill still has plenty left in the tank despite getting up there in age.
At (-198), Lucindo is actually the lightest favorite on a card full of lopsided matchups. Obviously, being roughly 17 years younger plays a role. She should also theoretically be able to wrestle Hill. In each of her victories, Lucindo has recorded two or more takedowns. Hill does have a respectable 75 percent takedown defense, however.
If you're playing cash games, Hill is likely a foundational piece. She's never been knocked out in her 32-fight professional career, and with 5.47 significant strikes landed per minute, you're looking at a fantasy floor of roughly 75 strikes as long as she stays upright.
I'd have liked to see a little more value in the price, but Hill is still the pick. Again, you need underdogs to make valid lineups and could do a lot worse here.
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Hill
Bantamweight
Miles Johns (15-3-0) vs. Jean Matsumoto (16-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Johns ($7,700), Matsumoto ($8,500)
Betting Odds: Johns (+240), Matsumoto (-330)
Johns fought three times in 2024, picking up wins over Cody Gibson and Douglas Silva de Andrade before snapping a four-fight unbeaten streak in December with a loss to Felipe Lima. A 10-fight veteran who has been with the UFC since earning a spot via Contender Series in 2019, Johns sports a record of 6-3-0 (1 NC).
Matsumoto is a 25-year-old prospect and member of the quickly rising Fighting Nerds team, so he's getting some of the best training possible on a daily basis. He earned his spot via the Contender Series in 2023 and started with back-to-back wins. The competition level rose in February, however, and he lost a split decision to veteran Rob Font.
Matsumoto's strength lies in his wrestling. He averages 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, and even took Font down seven times in their fight (though he didn't do much with those positions). Johns will look to combat that strength with a respectable 81 percent takedown defense rate.
One weakness for Matsumoto is that he gets hit too much. He absorbs more significant strikes per minute (5.40) than he lands (5.18), which isn't sustainable over the long term. He gave up 95 significant strikes in the Font fight and 89 significant strikes to fringe-roster fighter Brad Katona. Even in his Contender Series fight, he absorbed 99 significant strikes.
Johns isn't necessarily in a great place to take advantage of that, averaging a middling 3.16 significant strikes landed per minute. At least he has a positive striking differential, and with the aforementioned takedown defense, he has a chance to keep this fight standing.
Font proved to be a step up in competition too fast for Matsumoto, and I think Johns can lean on his experience to forge a similar outcome. The straight-up pick is probably Matsumoto, but you sense the theme here -- you need to take a stand somewhere, and Johns has a better chance of victory than most of the other heavy dogs on the card.
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Johns
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Andre Fili (24-12-0) vs. Christian Rodriguez (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Fili ($7,800), Rodriguez ($8,400)
Betting Odds: Fili (+195), Rodriguez (-238)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Fili
Middleweight
Eryk Anders (17-8-0) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Anders ($7,000), Duncan ($9,200)
Betting Odds: Anders (+425), Duncan (-575)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Duncan
Light Heavyweight
Julius Walker (6-1-0) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Walker ($9,400), Cerqueira ($6,800)
Betting Odds: Walker (-675), Cerqueira (+490)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Walker
Bantamweight
Elijah Smith (8-1-0) vs. Toshiomi Kazama (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($9,300), Kazama ($6,900)
Betting Odds: Smith (-700), Kazama (+500)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Smith
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (15-6-0) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($8,600), Cachoeira ($7,600)
Betting Odds: Edwards (-340), Cachoeira (+270)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Edwards
Welterweight
Uros Medic (10-3-0) vs. Gilbert Urbina (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Medic ($8,900), Urbina ($7,300)
Betting Odds: Medic (-425), Urbina (+330)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Medic
Women's Flyweight
Gabriella Fernandes (10-3-0) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-1)
DK Salaries: Fernandes ($8,800), Stoliarenko ($7,400)
Betting Odds: Fernandes (-440), Stoliarenko (+340)
UFC VEGAS 109 PICK: Fernandes
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
