Beating the Book: NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Ladies and gentlemen, we've made it. Welcome to Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. Clear your calendars, cancel your social obligations, gas up your televisions – the time has come.

I'm thrilled to be back for another year of offering up NFL ATS picks for every game -- every single game -- on the 2025 NFL slate. Is it a grind? Absolutely. Am I consistently forced to pick games there is no way I would touch with my own money? Also absolutely. But that's part of the fun of writing this each week.

Whether you're a new reader, or someone who's been reading our NFL expert picks since the early days when this article was manned by Chris Liss, I want to thank you for following along. As always, feel free to ask questions – or tell me when I'm completely wrong – in the comments below. You can also email me directly ([email protected]) or find me on social media (@wha1en on Twitter and Instagram).

If you are new here, here's how we operate. Each week, we'll run through every game chronologically, beginning with Thursday Night Football and ending with Monday Night Football. I'll offer some brief thoughts on every matchup, as well as an official pick against the spread and a final score prediction. Pretty simple.

We'll utilize the most-recent NFL odds from major sportsbooks at the time of publication. We won't limit ourselves to a single shop – if a number is available at a reputable book, it's fair game. And if major variables are at play (QB or key skill player injuries, weather concerns, etc.) heading into the weekend, I'll do my best to provide some context and contingency plays.

Before we get to the Week 1 slate, if you're looking for more of my NFL coverage, you can catch me on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast with my guy Jeff Erickson every Tuesday throughout the season. Jeff and I also co-host our flagship show, RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today, on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports (Channel 87) from Noon-2pm ET, Monday through Thursday.

Additionally, I'll be a frequent guest on VSiN, where I co-host Prop Points five days per week from February through the end of August. We'll be taking the reins of the program again in February, but until then you can find me doing several appearances per week on the network.

Lastly, keep an eye out for regular video content on RotoWire's YouTube channel, as well as our social platforms. Myself and our team of experts will be bringing you plenty of fantasy advice and betting content throughout the season.

Alright, enough of that. Let's talk some Week 1.

Fittingly, the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles get things started on Thursday night with a home matchup against the Cowboys. For Philly, it's the start of a title defense. For Dallas… well, we'll see how it goes. More on that game later.

On Friday night, we're treated to another stand-alone, divisional game – Chiefs-Chargers in Sao Paolo – before the real action kicks off on Sunday.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Wild Card slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: N/A

On the season: 0-0-0 ATS; 0-0 SU; 0-0-0 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Kickoff Game

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -8.0

Total: 47.5

While this isn't quite Ravens-Chiefs from last season, we'll happily get a look at the defending champs on Opening Night. With most of Philly's key pieces returning, expectations are rightfully high, though the Eagles will have to navigate a difficult schedule that includes a trip to Kansas City next weekend.

For Dallas, this is obviously a brutal spot to begin what the organization hopes will be a bounceback season after stumbling to a 7-10 finish a year ago. Mike McCarthy and Micah Parsons are gone, but Dallas does get a healthy Dak Prescott back, while we'll see the debut of offseason addition George Pickens.

I hate to go chalk and take the biggest favorite of the week right off the bat, but the Eagles can beat teams – especially those with shaky defenses – in so many ways. I expect Prescott, Pickens and CeeDee Lamb to keep up early on, but the Cowboys' lack of a viable running game – sorry Javonte Williams – is too big of a hurdle to overcome.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Cowboys 21

Friday Night Sao Paulo Game

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total: 45.5

The Chiefs are coming off of an all-time strange season – one in which they went 17-3 SU (including playoffs) but just 9-11 ATS, seemingly grinding out ugly wins on a weekly basis. The goal is for this season to be significantly less-ugly, but a six-game suspension for Rashee Rice to begin the season could be a major roadblock early on. Rice will change the calculus for KC next month, but in the meantime, buckle up for plenty of Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Travis Kelce and perhaps even some splashes of JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The Chargers' season ended with an uninspiring loss to Houston in the Wild Card, but there's reason to believe they could take another step toward true Super Bowl contention in Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh. Rookie Omarion Hampton should spearhead a more efficient running game, though the loss of Rashawn Slater creates a question mark at tackle. Hampton was the Chargers only real difference-making addition to an offense that finished 11th in scoring and 16th in yards per play last season

Harbaugh does have a strong history in Week 1 games, going 5-0 ATS and SU, but this is a much tougher task than last year's opener against Gardner Minshew at the Raiders. It's also not a true home game for the Chargers, who don't have as much experience as Kansas City when it comes to neutral-site contests.

At the end of the day, I see this as a lower-scoring game, similar to the two matchups between these teams last season – both won by Kansas City. Maybe the Chiefs' fortune in tight games will run out at some point, but I'll side with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid over a Chargers team that's struggled mightily in close games over the last two seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Chargers 20

Sunday Early Slate

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -3.5

Total: 46.5

As soon as the schedule came out, I officially declared this a must-win for the Jaguars and I still stand by that. After Carolina, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, Niners, Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams over their next six games. Starting 0-1 could prove catastrophic with that upcoming schedule.

All eyes will rightfully be trained on Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence and the debut of No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter. The Jags' offense looked much more polished in limited preseason action, but the bar was set pretty low by the end of the Doug Pederson/Press Taylor reign of terror.

Jacksonville couldn't ask for a much friendlier Week 1 opponent than Carolina. The Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL, but this should again be among the worst defenses in the league. Carolina allowed a league-record 534 points last season while giving up 6.0 yards per play and 3,057 rushing yards – 653 more than the next-worst run defense. The return of Derrick Brown, and a healthy Jaycee Horn, should help matters, but it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which Carolina isn't among the three-to-five worst units in the NFL.

Of course, the Jags were also a mostly-terrible defense a year ago, giving up the sixth-most points and the second-most yards, so both offenses should feel confident heading into this matchup.

While my favorite play here is the O46.5 – Jaguars O24.5 team total is also appealing – we'll do something we don't often do here at Beating the Book and side with the Jaguars to get off on the right foot in Coen's debut. Keep an eye on the injury report for Carolina, as three starting offensive linemen -- Ikem Ekwonu, Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt -- are considered either questionable or doubtful to suit up.

The pick: Jaguars 28 – Panthers 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Buccaneers -2.5

Total: 47.5

This is one of my favorite matchups of the week. Despite up-and-down (mostly down) quarterback play last season, the Falcons took both games from Tampa Bay, which rolled to a fourth straight NFC South title.

For better or worse, the Falcons have become one of my pet teams this summer. I'm in on Michael Penix, I'm in on Bijan Robinson and I'm wildly overexposed to Drake London in fantasy leagues.The defense remains a question mark, though the Falcons at least attempted to address a woeful pass rush by investing two first-round picks on EDGE rushers. With no Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin or Jalen McMillan, Atlanta may be catching Tampa Bay at the right time.

The pick: Falcons 27 – Buccaneers 23

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Bengals -5.5

Total: 47.5

If Jags-Panthers is a must-win for Jacksonville, then I'm not sure what to call this for Cincinnati. The Bengals' early-season woes have been well-publicized, and a loss here would officially put Zac Taylor on the hot seat after one week. Will playing his starters in the preseason mean they're better-prepared for Week 1? Maybe. Possibly. Either way, the Bengals know they can't come out as flat as they did a year ago in a similar spot against New England.

Cincinnati's defense is bad enough that Joe Flacco and the Browns should be able to hang around. But Cincy's offense might be the most explosive in the NFL, particularly given the emergence of Chase Brown as another borderline-star at running back.

I like Cincy to pull out an uncomfortable win, but we'll roll with the Browns to find a way to cover. Ultimately, we leave this game feeling no differently about the Bengals on either side of the ball.

Side note: I'll be attacking David Njoku (anytime TD) and Chase Brown (receptions, receiving yards) in the prop markets.

The pick: Bengals 29 – Browns 24

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -1.5

Total: 46.5

Here we have our first Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week of the season. Zero interest in touching either side of this game.

Both teams have endured rough offseasons. Both coaches are on the hot seat. And both teams bring a tremendous amount of variance week-to-week. 

The year is 2025 and the Indianapolis Colts have not won a Week 1 game since 2013. Truly one of the most impressive streaks in sports. Indy nearly ended that streak last season but couldn't force a key stop on a 3 and 11 – and another on 3rd and 3 – that ultimately enabled the Texans to run out the clock en route to a 29-27 victory. Games like that have become the calling card for Indy, which has finished with 7, 8 or 9 wins in six of the last 10 seasons.

With the Anthony Richardson Era likely over, the Colts will roll out Daniel Jones on Sunday. In all likelihood, Jones will be the Colts' eighth unique passing yards leader in the last eight seasons. The rest of the roster is in solid shape, but it's tough to look past a glaring lack of stability at the most-important position in sports.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are among the biggest question marks in the NFL. Offensively, the talent is there for this to be one of the better units in the league, but trusting Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane to all stay healthy is a risky-at-best proposition. Miami also parted ways with Jonnu Smith this summer and replaced him with a man who was last seen in a music video for his post-divorce diss track. Unprecedented situation. We'll see how that goes.

Defensively, I have just as many questions. Swapping Jalen Ramsey for Minkah Fitzpatrick shores up one safety spot but opens up a massive hole at cornerback, where Storm Duck and Jack Jones are currently penciled in as starters.

I could go on and on, but you get the point. I don't want any part of this game.

The pick: Dolphins 26 – Colts 24

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -3.0

Total: 43.5

Really interesting Week 1 matchup between two bad teams a year ago with much higher expectations in 2025. I'll start by saying I'm more of a buyer on the Pats than I am the Raiders, due in large part to a clearer path in-division for New England, whereas 35% of Vegas' schedule comes against Kansas City, Denver and the Chargers.

At any rate, this should be a fascinating game of chess between two veteran coaches in new situations. Neither roster is fully built-out, but the Patriots were more aggressive seeking upgrades on both sides of the ball this offseason. Those additions need to pay dividends before we declare the Pats a legitimate playoff contender, but this should be a relatively soft landing spot – in terms of the opposing defense – for Mike Vrabel to log his first win at Foxboro.

We'll ride with New England to win outright, but the Raiders can keep this close.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Raiders 21

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Cardinals -6.5

Total: 43.5

While I still have questions about the offense, the Cardinals deserve credit for bulking up a defense that probably played above its level last season. With a soft early season schedule that hands them New Orleans, Carolina, Tennessee and Indy in four of the first six weeks, Arizona could easily bank enough wins to hang around in a muddled NFC West.

That starts in Week 1 with a matchup against Spencer Rattler, who managed to beat out Tyler Shough for the starting QB job. I fully expect the Saints to see what they have in Shough at some point, but the fact that a soon-to-be-26-year-old who spent seven years in college couldn't win this job says a lot about where the Saints are at right now as a franchise.

The Saints did surprise us with back-to-back 40-plus-point games to begin last season, but it's difficult to imagine much in the way of offensive fireworks here. Every year, Week 1 produces a handful of bizarre results – I don't think we get one here. Cardinals take care of business behind a dominant performance from a much-improved defense.

In Rattler's six starts last season, New Orleans went 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS), losing by 24, 23, 18, 34, 15 and 8 points.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Saints 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

Spread: Steelers -2.5

Total: 38.5

Fittingly, this is our only total sitting in the 30s and easily the lowest number of Week 1. While Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields could not be more different, neither signal-caller instills a ton of confidence. Beyond that, both teams have one defined weapon at wide receiver, and that's about it.

Fields' legs – and the Breece Hall-Braelon Allen tandem – could give PIttsburgh some trouble, but the Steelers are plenty comfortable playing these muck-it-up type of games. Each side will also be well-prepared to face its former quarterback, so more than anything I look at this as an under spot. First to 20 points probably takes it.

Speaking of which, Justin Fields is 12-29 SU in 41 career NFL starts. When the opposing team scores at least 20 points, he's 0-21 SU and just 5-15-1 ATS.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Jets 14

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -6.5

Total: 45.5

Divisional matchups comprise half of the Week 1 slate, and we have another one in the NFC East to finish out the early window.

Washington is a difficult team for me to figure out. On one hand, the Commanders are probably the most-obvious regression candidate in the NFC. On the other, they added Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel to what was already the oldest roster in the NFL. In short, they're making win-now moves that could help preserve last season's momentum, but at some point this roster is going to need a significant infusion of youth to grow alongside Jayden Daniels. But that's a future problem.

I expect the Giants to be a popular dog play this week, rooted in the idea that the defensive front can force consistent pressure, while Russell Wilson avoids any killer mistakes. If the Giants can accomplish both of those goals, they should be able to hang around well into the second half. As of publication, the handle is split almost evenly at the DraftKings Sportsbook, per VSiN betting splits.

The pick: Commanders 24 – Giants 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 46.5

We kick off the late window with yet another divisional matchup, as the Lions head to Lambeau Field to take on Micah Parsons, Bo Melton and the Packers. Parsons' debut is the obvious headliner – I fully endorse him wearing No. 1, just for the record – though it's fair to wonder just how many snaps he'll play and how impactful he'll be right away.

On the other side, Detroit debuts new coordinators on both sides of the ball, though last year's star-studded roster remains mostly intact. It's fair to expect some regression in terms of offensive line play, but it's anyone's guess how much the departure of Ben Johnson will impact an offense that led the NFL in scoring a year ago. Personally, I'm baking in some regression, but Detroit's skill-position talent is still arguably the best in the NFL, and "some" regression could still produce a top-five offense.

While Green Bay is 15-3 ATS in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 over the last six seasons, the Lions have had their number of late, and Dan Campbell has covered all four of his openers. Jared Goff is also undefeated ATS (8-0) in Week 1, dating back to his days in Los Angeles.

Even if he's somewhat-limited, Parsons should provide a major boost to the Packers' defense, but the secondary remains a massive question mark, as does a banged-up receiving corps. With unknowns on both sides, this feels like a toss-up, but I'll side with Detroit to pick up its sixth outright win in the last seven matchups against Green Bay.

The pick: Lions 27 – Packers 24

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -8.0

Total: 42.5

The second-biggest spread of the week brings us out to Denver, where Cam Ward will make his debut. Objectively, it's a brutal spot for Ward, playing at altitude against what may be the best defense int he NFL. Nonetheless, he'll try to become the first rookie QB to win a Week 1 game SU since Sam Darnold in 2018. 

In general, rookie No. 1 picks have overwhelmingly struggled when they start Week 1. Over the last 55 years, those quarterbacks are 5-22-1 SU and just 8-20 ATS. Meanwhile, Denver – with a rookie QB of its own – is coming off of a 12-5 ATS season, including 8-0 when favored.

Denver giving more than a touchdown could be a little dicey, but I have very little faith in the Titans getting off on the right foot. Tennessee's defense can keep this from getting out of hand, but we'll take the Broncos to cruise to a comfortable victory.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Titans 14

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Total: 42.5

Coming off of an injury-riddled 2024 season that ended in a last-place finish in the NFC West, expectations are once again high for the Niners, who are the betting favorite to win the division. Part of that is rooted in an extremely friendly schedule, which includes the NFC South, AFC South and rotational games against Cleveland, Chicago and the Giants.

While this roster isn't as deep as those of years past, when the Niners' stars are healthy, they're capable of beating anyone. Trent Williams, Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, George Kittle and Chrstian McCaffrey is a hell of a core, but it's fair to question the wide receiver room, which no longer includes Deebo Samuel. Meanwhile, Jauan Jennings has battled a calf injury for weeks, while Demarcus Robinson will serve a suspension to begin the season. Things seem to be trending toward Jennings playing in Week 1, but he could be limited. That leaves Ricky Pearsall as Purdy's go-to target, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling (gulp) and Skyy Moore (double gulp) will see plenty of snaps.

On the other side, Seattle has a new quarterback in Sam Darnold and a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak – its third OC in as many seasons. It's fair to be skeptical of Darnold in another new situation, one that does not tether him to Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson, but if Darnold can play at even 85-90% of last year's level, that could be enough to keep Seattle in the playoff mix.

Expect the Niners' defense, with Robert Saleh back at the helm, to test Darnold – and a shaky offensive line – early and often. Seattle does have the homefield advantage, but the Niners have dominated this matchup in recent years, while Seattle finished just 2-7 ATS at home a year ago.

Taking the Niners feels like the default answer here, but it's tough to pick against that veteran core when it's fully intact. 

The pick: 49ers 24 – Seahawks 21

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -3.5

Total: 44.5

There may be sexier games on the slate, but this is one of my favorite Week 1 matchups. Houston is my pick to hold its spot atop the AFC South, but this will be a difficult road test against a Rams team that nearly knocked off the Eagles in the Divisional Round.

The Rams' defensive front, led by Jared Verse, should have some significant advantages over a poor Texans offensive line that may be even worse – on paper, at least – than last season's. But on the other side, I expect some rust out of Matthew Stafford, who was last seen hanging out in a stainless steel camper parked next to Rams camp.

Defensively, Houston is one of the most-talented units in the NFL with two excellent pass-rushers and one of the best secondaries in football, spearheaded by Derek Stingley.

This is one of the most-difficult Week 1 games to handicap and was nearly our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. If I'm playing anything, it's the U44.5. But we pick sides here at Beating the Book, so give me Houston to cover the 3.5 in a narrow loss.

The pick: Rams 21 – Texans 20

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Ravens -1.5

Total: 50.5

With apologies to Dolphins-Colts and Steelers-Jets, this is the true headliner of Week 1. Baltimore and Buffalo  have been in the Super Bowl picture for several years but have either run into each other, fallen victim to the Kansas City Chiefs, or both. Once again, all three AFC powers feel like they're on a collision course, and Sunday night's winner will have the early leg up in the race for the 1 seed.

Talent-wise, I give the edge to Baltimore, but home field advantage certainly matters for Buffalo, even if a September game doesn't pack the elements of a late-season matchup.

With all due respect to Lamar Jackson and what should be a ferocious Ravens defense, the Bills are my lean, despite Jim Harbaugh holding a 12-5 ATS record in Week 1 games. The Ravens fell to Kansas City in a similar spot last season and even followed up with a loss to Vegas in Week 2 before ripping off seven wins in their next eight games.

Buffalo finds a way to win outright as a slight home dog.

The pick: Bills 26 – Ravens 24

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Spread: Vikings -1.5

Total: 43.5

Yet another divisional matchup to finish out what promises to be a wild Week 1. The Vikings return one of the best defenses in football but will pivot to a new quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who I'm essentially treating as a rookie. It remains to be seen just how ready McCarthy will be, though he'll have the advantage of playing under Kevin O'Connell, who did the unthinkable and turned Sam Darnold into a 14-game winner a year ago.

On the other side, we'll see the debut of Ben Johnson, who will be tasked with flipping the narrative for Caleb Williams after a shaky rookie season. The talent is there for Johnson to turn the Bears into a junior version of the Lions, but Williams and Jared Goff could not be more opposite archetypes, so I expect some growing pains early on.

With quarterback questions on both sides, I ultimately see this as a lower-scoring game dictated by the Vikings' defense. The U43.5 is my favorite play, but we'll lean slightly toward Minnesota to force a key mistake or two and pull out a narrow win on the road.

The pick: Vikings 23 – Bears 20