DraftKings NFL Week 3: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 3 slate includes 13 games and features Dallas at Chicago in what's by far the highest-totaled matchup, a spot that's sure to be popular for stacks. Significant injuries will also have a big impact, as multiple starting QBs and RBs have been ruled out, leaving the backups underpriced. 

In this DraftKings breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite options for GPPs as well. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments. If you're only concerned with playing the "best plays," cash-games are better suited. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• RB Jordan Mason vs. CIN ($5,400)

Three major injuries have really altered the Minnesota-Cincinnati matchup: both teams will be without their starting QBs, while the Vikings will also be missing Aaron Jones. HC Kevin O'Connell has said that Jordan Mason is ready for a "bell cow" role, and I expect him to be used that way Sunday to take the pressure off Carson Wentz as much as possible. The matchup looks good too, as the Bengals defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs so far. Mason projects as one of the top values on the board and will be chalky in cash games.

• WR Keenan Allen vs. DEN ($4,700)

After catching seven passes for 68 yards and a TD in Week 1, Allen caught five for 61 and a score last week in what has already been a successful return to the Chargers. He's drawn 17 targets over the first two games and his salary is too cheap for that type of volume and production. There's plenty of good value at WR this week but Allen is the only one priced under $5,000. If you'd rather go somewhere else, Jakobi Meyers ($5,600), Rome Odunze ($5,300), Chris Olave ($5,200) and Jauan Jennings ($5,000) are all solid options for slightly more salary.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Caleb Williams vs. DAL ($5,600)

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QB Daniel Jones at TEN ($5,400)

QB Drake Maye vs. PIT ($5,300)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. LV ($4,000)

QB Carson Wentz vs. CIN ($4,000)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. ARI ($8,200)

RB Bijan Robinson at CAR ($7,900)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. LAR ($7,800)

RB Jonathan Taylor at TEN ($7,200)

RB Bucky Irving vs. NYJ ($7,100)

RB Josh Jacobs at CLE ($7,000)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. NO ($5,800), if Zach Charbonnet is out

RB Jordan Mason vs. CIN ($5,400)

WR Puka Nacua at PHI ($7,700)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. NO ($6,500)

WR Garrett Wilson at TB ($6,200)

WR Davante Adams at PHI ($6,200)

WR Jakobi Meyers at WAS ($5,600)

WR Rome Odunze vs. DAL ($5,300)

WR Chris Olave at SEA ($5,200)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. ARI ($5,000)

WR Keenan Allen vs. DEN ($4,700)

TE Trey McBride at SF ($5,700)

TE Tyler Warren at TEN ($4,400)

TE Jake Ferguson at CHI ($4,000)

TE Juwan Johnson at SEA ($3,900)

TE Luke Musgrave at CLE ($2,700), if Tucker Kraft is out

D/ST Green Bay Packers at CLE ($3,700)

D/ST Indianapolis Colts at TEN ($3,300)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons at CAR ($3,200)

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. LV ($3,000)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals at MIN ($2,400)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders at WAS ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (26) at Chicago Bears (24.5)

COWBOYS

The Dallas-Chicago matchup is an obvious target for game stacks, as its 50.5-point total is by far the highest on the board. Both teams play fast and are dealing with key injuries in the secondary. The Cowboys are coming off a wild 40-37 win over the Giants that combined for 130 plays and had Dallas operating at the fourth-fastest neutral pace of the week. Dak Prescott ($5,900) and company will be licking their chops for Sunday's matchup against the Bears after they allowed 52 points to the Lions last week. CeeDee Lamb ($8,000) has posted back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and topped 20 DraftKings points in each despite not finding the end zone yet. George Pickens ($5,900) caught five of nine targets for 68 yards and his first Cowboys touchdown last week. He offers salary savings and leverage as he'll be considerably less popular than his teammate. So does Jake Ferguson ($4,000), who was Prescott's favorite option last week after catching nine of 12 targets for 78 yards. Javonte Williams ($6,100) had another big game, rushing 18 times and catching six passes for 130 combined yards. He'd make most sense on the opposite side of Bears stacks. 

BEARS

Call me crazy but after watching Russell Wilson absolutely torch this Dallas defense that remains short at cornerback, this looks like a prime spot for Caleb Williams ($5,600) and the Chicago passing-game. Also promising is that the Bears led the league in neutral pace last week and were third in no-huddle rate. Rome Odunze ($5,300) seems to have established himself as the No. 1 WR, and he's priced too cheap for that role after catching 13 of 20 targets for three TDs over the first two weeks. I'd expect him to be about twice as popular as DJ Moore ($5,400), considering Moore hasn't topped 10 fantasy points yet. Expect that to change Sunday though, with Chicago using Moore in different ways, including as a RB. I'll be avoiding the tight ends until we see more usage out of Colston Loveland ($3,200), who's played about half the snaps and drawn just three targets.

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Odunze/WR Moore +/- TE Ferguson
• Favorite Bears Stack: QB Williams + WR Lamb + WR Odunze and/or WR Moore 

New Orleans Saints (17) at Seattle Seahawks (24.5)

SAINTS

There is no clear second-best game to target, as the remaining 12 matchups have point totals between 41.5-45.0. New Orleans should be a great matchup for opposing offenses all season, not only because they're pretty bad but more because of HC Kellen Moore. He has the Saints ranking first in pace, first in combined plays and second in no-huddle rate; talk about a recipe for fantasy points. Spencer Rattler ($4,900) has been surprisingly serviceable, as have his top three pass-catchers, who are all relatively cheap. Chris Olave ($5,200) has caught 13 of his 22 targets and seems primed for a breakout based on that volume. Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) is as explosive as anyone in the league and flashed his upside on a 39-yard touchdown last week. Juwan Johnson ($3,900) has put up 15+ points in consecutive games thanks to 13 catches and a TD on 22 targets. All are good options and none will be overly popular. The same goes for Alvin Kamara ($6,300), who had 27 touches for 120 yards last week.  

SEAHAWKS

Seattle's offense has been a pleasant surprise so far, and Sunday's matchup against New Orleans is about as soft as it gets. Sam Darnold ($5,100) threw for 295 yards and two scores in Pittsburgh last week, which is impressive for a guy many had written off. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500) looks like one of the brightest talents in the league, he projects among the top values on the slate and will be popular as a result. Cooper Kupp ($5,000) won't be, however, and that makes him a decent leverage option when you consider he's led the group in snaps both weeks and caught seven of nine targets for 90 yards in Week 2. If you'd rather target the running-game, Kenneth Walker ($5,800) looked like he was shot out of a cannon against the Steelers last week on his way to 105 yards on only 13 carries. He could be in line for significantly more work if Zach Charbonnet ($4,800) can't go after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday due to a foot injury. 

• Favorite Saints Stack: +/-QB Rattler + WR Olave/WR Shaheed + WR Smith-Njigba + TE Johnson
• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Darnold + WR Smith-Njigba +/- WR Kupp + WR Olave/WR Shaheed

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR Puka Nacua + WR DeVonta Smith

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown + WR Davante Adams

QB Justin Herbert + WR Keenan Allen or WR Ladd McConkey + WR Troy Franklin

QB Kyler Murray + RB Christian McCaffrey + TE Trey McBride or WR Marvin Harrison

QB Bo Nix + WR Troy Franklin or WR Courtland Sutton + WR Keenan Allen

QB Daniel Jones + RB Tony Pollard or WR Calvin Ridley + TE Tyler Warren

QB Drake Maye + WR DK Metcalf + WR Stefon Diggs or TE Hunter Henry

QB Tyrod Taylor + RB Bucky Irving + WR Garrett Wilson

QB Marcus Mariota + WR Deebo Samuel or WR Terry McLaurin + WR Jakobi Meyers

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson at CAR ($7,900)

Sunday's matchup against Carolina looks like a smash spot for Robinson. The Panthers run defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.7 yards per carry. In two meetings last season, Robinson gashed them for 265 yards and four TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. All of the top backs project well and will garner significant ownership this week. Another reason why I prefer Robinson is his upside as a WR; he had six catches for 100 yards in Week 1 and has already been targeted 12 times through two games. 

• WR CeeDee Lamb at CHI ($8,000)

Chicago is without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and we just saw Amon-Ra St. Brown go for 115 yards and three TDs against them. Lamb posted seven catches for 110 yards in Week 1 and nine for 112 in Week 2. He's a good bet to score his first TD of the season and makes perfect sense in DAL-CHI game stacks.

Honorable Mentions: RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,200); WR Puka Nacua ($7,700)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Carson Wentz vs. CIN ($4,000)

This is a similar situation to what we had with Mac Jones last week in that a starting QB for a favored team has not been priced correctly because the information wasn't known in time. It's different because Wentz doesn't play with Christian McCaffrey or have Kyle Shanahan to help. That doesn't mean he can't or won't have a nice game though. The Vikings have a pretty soft matchup against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Part of my reason for fading is that I'm concerned about his ceiling potential. Wentz hasn't played much football over the past three seasons, and I think Minnesota will rely on Jordan Mason and the running game as much as possible. My other reason for fading is that there are much better options also underpriced, and if I was going to completely punt, it'd be for Marcus Mariota ($4,000) instead. He has the requisite rushing upside to give him a safer floor and higher ceiling.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. NO

One stat that really stands out after two weeks is Smith-Njigba's league-high 44 percent target share. He caught nine of 13 targets in Week 1 and eight of nine in Week 2, topping 100 receiving yards in each game. Say what you want about Sam Darnold, but he's able to help his No. 1s have big-time fantasy success. We saw it with Justin Jefferson and the Vikings last season and expect it to continue with Smith-Njigba. He's supremely talented and the Seahawks are lacking at WR and TE, meaning the target share will remain high. 

Honorable Mention: WR Rome Odunze ($5,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Caleb Williams vs. DAL ($5,600)

QB Daniel Jones at TEN ($5,400)

QB Drake Maye vs. PIT ($5,300)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. LV ($4,000), if Jayden Daniels is out

QB Carson Wentz vs. CIN ($4,000)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. NO ($5,800)

RB Tony Pollard vs. IND ($5,700)

RB Jordan Mason vs. CIN ($5,400)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. ARI ($5,000)

WR Michael Pittman at TEN ($4,900)

WR Stefon Diggs vs. PIT ($4,800)

WR Keenan Allen vs. DEN ($4,700)

WR Rashid Shaheed at SEA ($4,600)

WR Troy Franklin at LAC ($4,000)

WR Marvin Mims at LAC ($3,800)

WR Dontayvion Wicks at CLE ($3,700)

WR Elic Ayomanor vs. IND ($3,700)

TE Jake Ferguson at CHI ($4,000)

TE Juwan Johnson at SEA ($3,900)

TE Hunter Henry vs. PIT ($3,800)

TE Harold Fannin vs. GB ($3,600)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders vs. ATL ($3,200)

TE Luke Musgrave at CLE ($2,700), if Tucker Kraft is out

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Jayden Daniels vs. LV

Daniels has been ruled out with a knee injury. Marcus Mariota ($4,000) projects better than Carson Wentz ($4,000). 

• TE Tucker Kraft at CLE

Kraft's status is up in the air after injuring his knee at practice on Thursday. Luke Musgrave ($2,700) would be viable in all formats if Kraft is ruled out. 

• RB Zach Charbonnet vs. NO

Charbonnet is listed questionable after missing practice all week with a foot injury. Kenneth Walker ($5,800) would become a top option in all formats given the Seahawks prime matchup at home against the Saints. 

Weather

• Possible rain/wind in Jacksonville
• Possible rain in Tampa Bay
• Possible rain/storms in Chicago

Not much to be overly concerned about this week. Check the forecast closer to kickoff on Sunday.