DraftKings NFL: Week 6 DFS Breakdown

DraftKings NFL: Week 6 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 6 slate includes 10 games and two have totals higher than 50 points. The Commanders-Ravens matchup will be a popular target for stacks as it features the top two fantasy QBs in the league. Lions-Cowboys will also be popular, with two high-powered offenses and the top two WRs on the slate. The Falcons will be a chalky source of value as their matchup against the Panthers is especially soft. 

Aside from that, decisions are less clear than in weeks past as there won't be quite as much chalk as we've become accustomed. That's a good thing because it means things are a bit more subjective and you can credibly deviate from the optimal without as much fear of getting run over by an abundance of strong value. As always, I've highlighted the top options for cash games in this article as well as a few of my favorite ideas for tournaments. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad 
Implied Total
Home TeamHome 
Implied Total
41.5Tampa Bay Buccaneers22.5New Orleans Saints19
47.5Arizona Cardinals21Green Bay Packers26.5
43Indianapolis Colts22Tennessee Titans21
42.5Cleveland Browns16.5Philadelphia Eagles26
37.5Houston Texans22.25New England Patriots15.25
51.5Washington Commanders22.5Baltimore Ravens29
35.5Los Angeles Chargers19.25Denver Broncos16.25
36.5Pittsburgh Steelers19.75Las Vegas Raiders16.75
47Atlanta Falcons26.5Carolina Panthers20.5
52Detroit Lions27.5Dallas Cowboys24.5

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They allow a league-high 33 points per game and surrender 155 scrimmage yards and two TDs per game to running backs. Robinson has underwhelmed but his salary has fallen considerably as a result. He started the season priced at $7,700 and was $7,400 two weeks ago at home against New Orleans. Now he's priced at a discount for with Atlanta in a prime spot and the offense coming off its best performance of the season. 

Continuing with the theme of the Falcons having the softest matchup on the slate, London is expected to be one of, if not the most popular WR. Despite missing snaps after being evaluated for a concussion last week, he caught 12 of 13 targets for 154 yards and a TD. He had 12 targets the week before that and I expect the increased volume to continue as he's lined up in the slot more often. It's also a good spot for Darnell Mooney ($5,300), who's coming off a career game of nine catches for 102 yards and two scores. On the other side of this game, the Panthers likely will be playing from behind and Diontae Johnson ($6,100) projects among the best value at the position. Him and London will be popular in cash games. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Lamar Jackson vs. WAS ($7,800)

QB Jalen Hurts vs. CLE ($7,200)

QB Kirk Cousins at CAR ($6,200)

QB Justin Fields at LV ($5,800)

QB Spencer Rattler vs. TB ($4,000)

RB Bijan Robinson at CAR ($6,600)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. ATL ($6,300)

RB Tony Pollard vs. IND ($6,000)

RB Bucky Irving at NO ($5,400)

WR CeeDee Lamb vs. DET ($8,600)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at DAL ($8,100)

WR Chris Godwin vs. NO ($6,900)

WR Drake London at CAR ($6,700)

WR Zay Flowers vs. WAS ($6,500)

WR Diontae Johnson vs. ATL ($6,100)

WR Darnell Mooney at CAR ($5,300)

TE Jake Ferguson vs. DET ($5,000)

TE Cade Otton vs. NO ($3,500)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders vs. ATL ($2,600)

D/ST Philadelphia Eagles vs. CLE ($3,400)

D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NO ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Washington Commanders (22.5) at Baltimore Ravens (29)

COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels ($7,300) has taken the league the by storm. He's led Washington to four consecutive wins and ranks second among QBs in fantasy points. The Commanders averaged 38 points per game in the their last three as Daniels has single-handedly turned the offense into an elite unit. They've thrown more and are playing faster of late too. No team has a higher neutral no-huddle rate through five games. On paper, at Baltimore would seem like a tough matchup but the Ravens just allowed five touchdown passes from Joe Burrow and got lit up by Gardner Minshew a couple weeks before that. What's nice about stacking the Commanders is that Terry McLaurin ($6,400) is essentially the only viable WR. He's surpassed 100 yards in two of his last three while catching two TDs in that span. Zach Ertz ($3,700) is coming off a season-high eight targets, though he only caught two for 10 yards. He remains an option considering how weak the TE position is. If Brian Robinson (knee) were to sit, Austin Ekeler ($5,600) would make sense paired with either QB, considering his cheap salary and pass-catching upside.

RAVENS

The only QB with more fantasy points than Daniels this season is reigning MVP Lamar Jackson ($7,800). He leads his position in rushing yards and is on pace to set a career high in passing yards.  He's coming off a slate-breaking 37 DK points in an impressive come from behind win over Cincinnati last week. Similar to the Commanders, the Ravens are easy to stack because they really only have one pass-catcher worth considering. Zay Flowers ($6,500) caught seven of 12 targets for 111 yards a week ago. It was the third time in five games that he's drawn double-digit targets and it's only a matter of time before he adds to his one TD catch. For larger-field GPPs, Rashod Bateman ($4,100) can be considered after four catches for 58 yards and a score last week. Isaiah Likely ($4,500) caught two TDs but since his Week 1 outburst hasn't drawn more than three targets or topped 26 yards in a game. Mark Andrews ($3,900) is coming off his best game of the season after four catches for 55 yards. Clearly he isn't the same player he once was and it doesn't help that Baltimore uses three TEs, but $3,900 is the cheapest he's ever been priced and I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a shot. If you'd rather fade the passing game with the Ravens favored by a touchdown, Derrick Henry ($8,000) leads the league in rushing yards and we've already seen him hit two ceiling games of 33-plus fantasy points. Rostering him opposite Daniels is one of my favorite ways to start Commanders stacks. 

  • Favorite Commanders Stack: QB Daniels + RB Henry + WR McLaurin
  • Favorite Ravens Stack: QB Jackson + WR McLaurin + WR Flowers

Detroit Lions (27.5) at Dallas Cowboys (24.5)

LIONS

The Lions free-scoring offense ranks first in neutral pace and is coming off a 42-point outburst against the Seahawks two weeks ago. Fresh off a bye and with their offensive line back healthy, they'll fancy their chances against a Dallas defense that's failed to live up to expectations. Jared Goff ($6,400) was flawless his last time out, going 18-for-18 as he carved up Seattle for 292 yards and two scores while catching a TD in the process. His No. 1 WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100) has a TD in back-to-back games and 20-plus fantasy points in three straight. Jameson Williams ($5,800) caught a 70-yard touchdown against Seattle and now has a reception of 50-plus yards in three of four games. He's played 85 percent of snaps while showing the ability to score every time he touches the ball. He's one of the better leverage options at WR this week considering about 10 others in his salary range will be more popular. Aside from the passing game, this is a great spot for Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), David Montgomery ($6,500) and Detroit's potent rushing attack. The Cowboys have been gashed on the ground this season and the Lions are still a run-first team. Both Gibbs and Montgomery have scored at least 15 DK points in all four of Detroit's games and neither will garner much ownership. Rostering one opposite Prescott and Lamb makes for a nice mini-stack.

COWBOYS

Dallas hopes to have righted the ship after a hard-fought win in Pittsburgh last week. Dak Prescott ($6,700) has thrown a pair of touchdowns in three consecutive games and he's thrown for more than 350 yards in two of those. The Cowboys haven't been able to establish much of a running game this season and you'd figure it will be on Prescott's shoulders if they're to keep pace with the high-powered Lions. That said, Rico Dowdle ($5,800) is coming off season highs in both carries (20) and rushing yards (87). He also has a receiving touchdown in back-to-back games and therefore could be used as a leverage option in either Cowboys or Lions stacks. CeeDee Lamb ($8,600) has yet to have a 100-yard game through five weeks but a back-and-forth matchup with Detroit would provide his best shot to date. The Lions conceded 117 yards to Chris Godwin and 110 to Cooper Kupp. Jalen Tolbert ($5,000) has proved more than capable of filling the void at WR2 in the absence of Brandin Cooks (knee). He's coming off seven catches for 87 yards and a TD last week while he flashed big play ability in a limited role last year. Jake Ferguson ($5,000) has caught six passes in three consecutive games and projects as the top TE in terms of value this week. 

  • Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR Williams and/or WR St. Brown + TE Ferguson
  • Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + RB Gibbs or RB Montgomery + WR Lamb + TE Ferguson

Other Stacks to Consider

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Tank Dell or WR Stefon Diggs + WR Ja'Lynn Polk +/- TE Dalton Schultz

QB Kyler Murray + RB Josh Jacobs and/or WR Jayden Reed + TE Trey McBride

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb + WR Jameson Williams + TE Jake Ferguson

QB Jordan Love + WR Jayden Reed + TE Trey McBride or TE Tucker Kraft

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Drake London/WR Darnell Mooney + WR Diontae Johnson +/- TE Kyle Pitts

QB Justin Fields + WR George Pickens + TE Brock Bowers 

QB Justin Fields + WR Jakobi Meyers or WR Tre Tucker + TE Pat Freiermuth

QB Spencer Rattler + WR Rashid Shaheed or WR Chris Olave + WR Chris Godwin or WR Mike Evans

High-Priced Heroes

Lamb's numbers this season certainly don't justify him being the most expensive player on the slate, but early season struggles will keep his ownership relatively low and I like the idea of one of the league's most explosive players as leverage. Especially when the Cowboys are home underdogs in the week's highest-total game against the fast-paced Lions. He's due for his first 100-yard game of the season and Dallas needs him to have it. 

Henry has enjoyed an incredible start to his Ravens career. He leads the league is rushing while scoring at least once in all five games. He had massive games of 199 and 151 yards in statement wins over Buffalo and Dallas, respectively. Baltimore has the highest implied total on the slate for the marquee matchup against Washington. The Commanders defense is average on a good day and they've given up at least 100 yards on the ground in every game. Henry's salary will keep his ownership down and we've already seen him put up 30-plus DK points twice in recent weeks. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100); WR A.J. Brown ($7,800)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

A matchup against Tampa Bay's defense and prolific run-stopper Vita Vea is always a tough spot for running backs to find success on the ground. Much of Kamara's value comes from his usage in the passing game, but that's a bit of an unknown this week with Spencer Rattler making his first career start. Either way, Kamara is expensive and I have doubts about his ceiling potential if the Saints struggle to move the ball and score. I prefer getting exposure to the lower-owned Derrick Henry ($8,000) above him and players in more favorable spots like Josh Jacobs ($6,700) and Bijan Robinson ($6,600) below. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Influencing my decision to highlight Pollard is the news that Anthony Richardson will start for the Colts. He's been unable to sustain drives and keep his defense off the field. The Colts gave up 213 rushing yards to the Texans and 261 to the Packers as a result. It also doesn't help that they're missing their best defensive lineman in DeForest Buckner. The Titans will want Will Levis to do as little as possible and that means a heavy dose of Pollard, who should see 20-plus touches and have opportunities to score inside the red zone. 

Honorable Mention: RB Bucky Irving ($5,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Spencer Rattler vs. TB ($4,000)

RB Javonte Williams vs. LAC ($5,500)

RB Antonio Gibson vs. HOU ($5,300)

WR Ladd McConkey at DEN ($4,900)

WR Ray-Ray McCloud at CAR ($4,300)

WR Tre Tucker vs. PIT ($4,200)

WR Rashod Bateman vs. WAS ($4,100)

WR Jonathan Mingo vs. ATL ($3,700)

WR Ja'Lynn Polk vs. HOU ($3,600)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders vs. ATL ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

White (foot) is out, making Bucky Irving ($5,400) project as great value and be viable in all formats. 

Richardson (oblique) is considered a game-time injury as he recovers from an oblique injury. When it comes to the viability of Josh Downs ($5,500), Alec Pierce ($5,400) and Adonai Mitchell ($3,900), I'd much rather have Joe Flacco start. 

Weather

  • Scattered showers in New England might have a slight impact on the passing. Check for update closer to kick off if you plan on rostering Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Belongia
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
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