The Z Files: Who's on First?

The Z Files: Who's on First?

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Who would have ever though shortstop would be a deeper fantasy position than first base? Yet here we are. It used to be the overflow at the position comprised many utility spots, but now if you wait too long, you're holding your nose. After constructing these tiers, it appears one of the reasons is the proliferation of high-power, low-average guys. Also, there hasn't been an influx of young talent over the last few years compared to the restocking of shortstop and third base.

By means of reminder, this is the next installment in my "Tiers of a Clown" series. Covered thus far are

The idea behind these tiers is that ranking in the traditional manner can lead to tunnel vision, since the focus is on a static projection and not the peripheries. A competitive roster is a combination of raw talent and fit, as you put pieces together in the most efficient manner. These tiers account for the latter.

The beauty of this process is it's individual. If you take the time to go through the exercise, you'll come up with different tier headings. If there's an overlap, the constituents within each group could be different. If we agree on the header and players, the order could be altered.

The order the groups are presented in is arbitrary, but the players within them are ranked roughly in order of quality. Some players could populate multiple groups, so I chose the one most apropos to my

Who would have ever though shortstop would be a deeper fantasy position than first base? Yet here we are. It used to be the overflow at the position comprised many utility spots, but now if you wait too long, you're holding your nose. After constructing these tiers, it appears one of the reasons is the proliferation of high-power, low-average guys. Also, there hasn't been an influx of young talent over the last few years compared to the restocking of shortstop and third base.

By means of reminder, this is the next installment in my "Tiers of a Clown" series. Covered thus far are

The idea behind these tiers is that ranking in the traditional manner can lead to tunnel vision, since the focus is on a static projection and not the peripheries. A competitive roster is a combination of raw talent and fit, as you put pieces together in the most efficient manner. These tiers account for the latter.

The beauty of this process is it's individual. If you take the time to go through the exercise, you'll come up with different tier headings. If there's an overlap, the constituents within each group could be different. If we agree on the header and players, the order could be altered.

The order the groups are presented in is arbitrary, but the players within them are ranked roughly in order of quality. Some players could populate multiple groups, so I chose the one most apropos to my usual team construction. Players eligible at multiple spots will be included at each legal position, using seven games played in 2020 as the guide.

With that as a backdrop, here are my first base classifications with a brief explanation. Afterwards, I'll list the players within each, with individual and group commentary.

  • FOMO: Some risk, but upside is huge
  • Book It: Track record of durability and reliability
  • Big Power, Average Drain: Self-explanatory
  • On the Rise: Young players with limited (if any) MLB experience
  • Live or Memorex: Displayed an improved skill over a small sample
  • Welcome Back: Missed 2020
  • Playing Time: Unemployed, role uncertain, or someone else is lurking
  • Rebound: Coming off a subpar 2020
  • And the Rest: Mostly AL/NL-only fodder

FOMO

Cody BellingerBeen at the top of the mountain, can he return?
Vladimir GuerreroIs this the season?

Take out 2019, and Bellinger is a guy with some pop who also runs. But 2019 did happen and it was supported by underlying metrics, most notably more frequent and authoritative contact. Bellinger's K% remained low last season, but he didn't square up batted balls at the same rate. The wild card is he's coming off shoulder surgery. 

Doesn't it feel like Guerrero should be a post-hype guy? He won't turn 22 until the day before St. Patrick's Day. 'Nuff said.

Book It

Freddie FreemanIt took MVP season for fantasy market to rank him properly
Jose AbreuSee Freeman, except now he's ranked too high
DJ LeMahieuLike a chameleon, he adapts to his home park
Anthony RizzoHasn't been the same since losing 2B eligibility
Paul GoldschmidtYeah, we know he doesn't run anymore, find something else to criticize. Right, I can't either

This group didn't have to be exclusively early-round players, but it turned out that way. With the first base inventory being shallower than normal, I'm likely to favor this classification. In past seasons, Abreu was a prime target, but after last season's MVP campaign the market could be too aggressive. Early indications are Rizzo and Goldschmidt will be the "bang for the buck" guys in this group.

Big Power, Average Drain

Pete AlonsoJust a handful fewer strikeouts away from the Book It tier
Rhys HoskinsComing off elbow surgery, could result in slow start
Matt OlsonRise in K% a concern, but deserves benefit of doubt in short season
Max MuncyPlate skills similar to previous seasons, but BABIP plummeted from fewer line drives
Mike MoustakasWeird to see no 3B eligibility
Carlos SantanaKauffman will help average but could hurt power
Miguel SanoStill among leaders in exit velo
Jared WalshUnderlying skills aren't terrible, but still due significant regression
Hunter Dozier2019 looks like the outlier
Mitch MorelandAssuming there will be universal DH in 2021
Ji-Man ChoiThe improved glove he flashed in the playoffs should keep Choi on strong side of platoon

Here is where you don't want to draft the projected rankings since they come with baggage. However, if your team construction can buffer a low average, this set can help you in three categories. I'm more likely to invest in the middle to bottom of the group, once I know my average can withstand the hit. Digging a hole in the category early means you're chasing, not choosing, in later rounds.

On the Rise

Alec BohmAverage obviously coming down, but landing should be soft
Ryan MountcastleAnother high BA due regression (.398 BABIP), but plate skills seem solid and Camden boosts power
Jake CronenworthBreakthrough fully supported
Evan WhiteCould have used time in Triple-A to work on contact
Bobby DalbecClassic slugger profile, but needs to make more contact
Michael ChavisTook step back, still chases high heat and outside sliders
Andrew VaughnIs the DH talk real?
Pavin SmithClose to a 1:1 BB:K ratio in minors
Josh FuentesAlready 27 years old and we all know how the Rockies don't commit to prospects

In the opening, the lack of up-and-coming stars was mentioned. This is it, friends. Spencer Torkelson and Triston Casas could make the list next season, but for now only Vaughn has a legit chance to be a top-75 batter. Not to mention, many of these youngsters are eligible at other spots.

As for targets, plate discipline is high on my list and Bohm and Mountcastle both check that box.

Live or Memorex

Luke VoitLast season's power hard to maintain, but one more solid season and Voit moves to Book It
Eric HosmerCan he maintain added loft?
Josh BellCan he regain 2019's added loft?
Brandon BeltDoes he carry over increased exit velocity? With the right field fences moved in, Belt could really benefit
Jeimer CandelarioBig spike in exit velocity with improved contact, can he sustain the gains?

In all instances here, it would have been helpful to see what happened over a full season. As is, we're left guessing. I'm most interested in Hosmer and Belt as the market hasn't really reacted to their 2020 numbers. That is, you can pay the previous price and have some upside baked in. For what it's worth, I'm optimistic both retain at least some of their improvement, rendering them nice corner or utility options.

Welcome Back

Trey ManciniImportant thing is he's back and on track for spring training. Aided by happy fun ball in 2019
C.J. CronWas my favorite Book It fallback, now hoping he finds a full time job

Spring training numbers don't mean anything, but I'll cop to tracking Mancini and Cron to gauge how the extended time off affects timing, etc.

Playing Time

Dominic SmithAssuming the Mets find regular at-bats, potentially via universal DH
Christian WalkerDeserves Book It, but need to allow for chance of slump or short side of platoon with Pavin Smith
Jesus AguilarEnough competition in South Beach that struggles could land him in platoon
Ryan McMahonJust never know how the Rockies will dole out playing time
Wilmer Flores2020 was the first season he was an everyday player, could be again with NL DH
Danny SantanaWhere does he land and what is his role?
Colin MoranNeeds the DH to ensure regular playing time
Rowdy TellezMany moving parts, does Tellez continue to play against all RHP?
Garrett CooperAnother example of needing the DH to assure playing time
Tommy La StellaLast season was his first as a regular, team and role still up in the air
Howie KendrickLikely not a regular, but how much action will he get?
Eric ThamesDeclining 34-year-old free agent first baseman likely not hot commodity
Travis ShawLikely looking at a minor-league deal
Daniel VogelbachProbably slated for lefty part of 1B or DH platoon, Miller Park should help. Interesting reserve dart
Jose MartinezOnly plausible path to fantasy relevance is as regular DH
Renato NunezWon't turn 27 years old until early April - should latch on somewhere, but role obviously uncertain
Asdrubal CabreraLikely headed for fantasy unfriendly utility role
Justin SmoakAnother guy probably needing minor-league deal to get another major-league chance
Daniel MurphyEven as launch angle disciple, couldn't take advantage of Coors
Jake BauersForgotten man, but still just 25 years old
Nate LoweHard to keep track of all the Lowes in Tampa
Jake LambShowed enough down the stretch with Oakland to merit look somewhere

After the first few names, the order within this group is arbitrary, depending on eventual team and role. I generally avoid this group as history shows there are fewer in-season replacements at first base (see the lack of prospects), so I'd rather look for playing time reliability at the position and gamble on at-bats elsewhere. Depending how things flesh out in the spring, some of the better hitters in this group could shift to other tiers, primarily Book It or High Power, Low Average.

Rebound

Joey VottoStatcast metrics on the decline. Do they continue, or is there one last hurrah?
Yuli GurrielTurning 37 years old next season
Marwin GonzalezCould go in Playing Time, but performance was such a drop off, it merits attention

Even though the price tag to see if Votto has anything left is minimal, I'd rather direct the opportunity cost elsewhere. I'd sooner take a shot on Gurriel, even though he's just one year younger than Votto.

And the Rest

Mike Brosseau
Jedd Gyorko
Todd Frazier
Albert Pujols
Ronald Guzman
Jose Osuna
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan McBroom

I'll conclude each position with players others may choose in mixed leagues, but I have no interest, at least not currently.

As always, please let me know who I missed, what headings you would use, etc.

NEXT WEEK: Second basemen

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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