Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

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Quarterback

• Tom Brady at ATL

52% started on Yahoo, 52% on ESPN

The Tampa offense feels like a disappointment, so I was a bit surprised when I realized Brady has a shot to reach 40 passing touchdowns. He's sitting on 30 through 13 games, looking ahead at two matchups with the Falcons sandwiched around a trip to Detroit. The Falcons have looked better over the past month, but we've probably said that a half-dozen times the last three years, and it's inevitably followed by their defense caving in again. 

• Honorable Mentions: Jared Goff, LAR vs. NYJ; Philip Rivers, IND vs. HOU;

Running Back

• Mike Davis at GB

54% started on Yahoo, 68% on ESPN

The potential for a blowout loss isn't ideal, but it's less of an issue for Davis than it would be for a typical running back. He's averaging 4.4 receptions per start, and he'll be facing a Packers defense that's given up a league-high 660 receiving yards to running backs. Green Bay has also been quite bad against the run for a third year in a row, ranking 22nd in DVOA (-2%), 26th in opponent YPC (4.6) and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.4 per game). Maybe Davis can keep the Panthers in the game with a big rushing performance, or maybe he piles up receptions in catch-up mode after halftime. Either way, he should keep fantasy managers happy.

• Jeff Wilson at DAL

16% started on Yahoo, 13% on ESPN

Wilson has been working in a near-even split with Raheem Mostert, who apparently suffered another injury (his ankle, again) in the Week 14 loss to Washington. Averaging 10.0 carries and 2.7 targets in three games since both he and Mostert returned from injured reserve, Wilson could handle even more work this week, and he'll be getting it against a defense that seem to have a penchant for humiliation. Even after a strong showing in Cincinnati last week, the Cowboys are 27th in run-defense DVOA (1.0%), 32nd in opponent YPC (5.1) and 27th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.0). Wilson should put up solid numbers even if Mostert plays, with a sky-high ceiling if his teammate is out.

• Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs, LV vs. LAC; Cam Akers, LAR vs. NYJ; J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. JAX

Wide Receiver

• Brandon Aiyuk at DAL

55% started on Yahoo, 52% on ESPN

Aiyuk's consistent production seems to be going under-appreciated, in part because his past five games took place over an eight-week stretch. Apart from a bye week and a pair of COVID-list absences, it's been two months since Aiyuk scored less than 17.5 PPR points. With Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out of the lineup again, Aiyuk should see a boatload of targets against one of the worst defenses in the league. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, yielding 8.8 YPT (26th) and 22 receiving TDs (32nd).

• Christian Kirk vs. PHI

16% started on Yahoo, 8% on ESPN

Kirk scored 62 percent of his 2020 fantasy points in a three-game stretch Weeks 6-9, averaging just 29.6 receiving yards with one touchdown between his other nine appearances. While he's either a free agent or a bottom-of-the-bench afterthought in the majority of fantasy leagues, a matchup with Philadelphia makes Kirk a viable starter in deeper formats this week.

The Eagles paid a steep price for their upset win over the Saints on Sunday, losing three starting defensive backs to injuries. Free safety Rodney McLeod (torn ACL) and cornerback Avonte Maddox (knee) have already been ruled out for Week 15, and No. 1 corner Darius Slay doesn't seem like a great bet to play as he enters the concussion protocol for a second time in 2020. The Philadelphia defense we see this Sunday won't be the same solid unit that held its own against likely playoff teams over the past four weeks.

• Honorable Mentions: Corey Davis, TEN vs. DET; Chris Godwin, TB at ATL;

Tight End

• Robert Tonyan vs. CAR

65% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN

With exactly five targets and one touchdown each of the past four weeks, Tonyan climbed up to fourth place in TE fantasy scoring for 2020. He's even nipping at T.J. Hockenson's heels for the No. 3 spot, despite seeing 36 fewer targets than the Lions' tight end. While he probably won't extend his unusual streak, Tonyan should post solid numbers against a Panthers defense that's allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to his position.

• Honorable Mentions: Rob Gronkowski, TB at ATL; Irv Smith, MIN vs. CHI; Jordan Reed, SF at DAL

Kicker

• Daniel Carlson vs. LAC

57% started on Yahoo, 67% on ESPN

Carlson has provided six or more fantasy points each week this year, ranking fourth among kickers in cumulative scoring. His Week 15 opponent has allowed the seventh-most points to the position, sitting 22nd in defensive DVOA (7.3%) and 26th in scoring defense (27.8 ppg). The Raiders haven't been playing well, but they shouldn't have trouble putting up points in a home game played indoors against a subpar defense.

• Honorable Mentions: Rodrigo Blankenship, IND vs. HOU; Mason Crosby, GB vs. CAR; Tyler Bass, BUF at DEN; Matt Gay, LAR vs. NYJ

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Quarterback

• Cam Newton at MIA

19% started on Yahoo, 16% on ESPN

Newton has the upside for 20 fantasy points with his rushing stats alone, yet hasn't reached 25 in a game since Week 2. With just five passing touchdowns in 12 starts, he's been maxing out in the low-20s when he has a nice rushing game, or going as low as single digits when he can't get anything going on the ground. A trip to Miami isn't likely to help Newton get back on track, as the Dolphins have done solid work defending the pass all season — fifth in DVOA, 10th in fantasy points allowed to QBs — and in recent weeks have been much better against the run (three straight games below 100 yards allowed).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Deshaun Watson, HOU at IND; Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TB

Running Back

• Todd Gurley vs. TB

45% started on Yahoo, 39% on ESPN

Apart from name recognition and lay-up touchdowns, Gurley doesn't bring much to the table at this point in his career. It took a while for the Falcons to notice, with Gurley leading their backfield until he suffered a knee injury Week 11. He only missed one game, but he's been stuck in a committee since his return, averaging seven carries, two targets and 33 percent snap share the past two weeks. And even if he returns to his old role, Gurley won't find much room to run against a Bucs defense that's given up a league-low 3.5 YPC.

• Melvin Gordon vs. BUF

63% started on Yahoo, 46% on ESPN

Run defense hasn't been a strength for the Bills this year, or at least it wasn't until the past three weeks. Buffalo has allowed just 209 rushing yards in three games since a Week 11 bye, with the defense looking more like what we saw last season. Meanwhile, Gordon hasn't done a whole lot when Phillip Lindsay has been healthy, averaging 11.4 carries, 2.1 targets and 66.8 total yards over the past seven games. Gordon and Lindsay are listed on the injury report this week, but it sounds like both are expected to play.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. PIT; David Johnson, HOU at IND; Damien Harris, NE at MIA;

Wide Receiver

• DJ Chark at BAL

36% started on Yahoo, 29% on ESPN

Despite averaging 8.9 targets over his last nine appearances, Chark has topped 56 yards just once since the first week of October. He saw nine passes last week and now gets Gardner Minshew back in the starting lineup, but any glimmer of optimism is dampened by the tough matchup in Baltimore. While their defense has been mediocre over the past month, the Ravens still have a solid secondary as long as either Marcus Peters (calf) or Jimmy Smith (shoulder) is able to play. Chark averaged only 48.5 yards in six games with Minshew as the starter earlier this season, getting outproduced by teammate Keelan Cole (53.4 ypg). None of the bunch is trustworthy this week, as the Jags are 13-point underdogs with an implied total of 17.5

• Tee Higgins vs. PIT

20% started on Yahoo, 22% on ESPN

We all figured the Cincinnati offense would be a disaster without Joe Burrow, and it's somehow been even worse than expected, scoring three TDs in three games while making the Giants, Dolphins and Cowboys look dominant. This week, the Bengals face a defense that can dominate real NFL offenses, with Pittsburgh leading the NFL in DVOA (-24.4%), points allowed (18.2 per game) and sacks (45). A 7-115-1 receiving line Week 10 proved Higgins can get separation from Steelers cornerbacks Joe Haden and Steven Nelson, but that probably won't matter too much with Brandon Allen (or Ryan Finley) overwhelmed by Pittsburgh's pass rush.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jamison Crowder, NYJ at LAR; Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. BUF; Michael Gallup, DAL vs. SF

Tight End

• Logan Thomas vs. SEA

40% started on Yahoo, 33% on ESPN

I still prefer Thomas over a desperation streamer like Jordan Akins or Trey Burton, but I'd rather leave Washington's tight end on my bench if the alternative is someone like Noah Fant or Jared Cook. The Washington Football Team will have either Dwayne Haskins or a banged-up Alex Smith (calf) at QB this week, facing a Seattle defense that's held five consecutive opponents to 225 team passing yards or less. It turns out the Seahawks can still play respectable defense when their entire secondary isn't on the injury report.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Dallas Goedert, PHI at ARZ; Jordan Akins, HOU at IND

Kicker

• Jason Myers at WAS

67% started on Yahoo, 48% on ESPN

The Seattle offense has cooled off from dominant to merely good, and a road trip to Washington isn't likely to spark a return to the level of performance we saw in September/October. Playing outdoors against a top-10 defense, Myers shouldn't have a starting spot on fantasy playoff teams. There are better options freely available in most leagues, including Matt Gay and Mason Crosby from teams with Week 15 implied totals above 30 points.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Joey Slye, CAR at GB; Matt Prater, DET at TEN

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-69 percent rostered)

QB Taysom Hill vs. KC

QB Philip Rivers vs. HOU

RB Jeff Wilson at DAL

RB Chase Edmonds vs. PHI

RB Jamaal Williams vs. CAR

WR Curtis Samuel at GB

WR Christian Kirk vs. PHI

WR Michael Pittman vs. HOU

WR Nelson Agholor vs. LAC

TE Jared Cook vs. KC

K Daniel Carlson vs. LAC

D/ST Minnesota Vikings vs. CHI

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-39 percent rostered)

QB Jalen Hurts at ARZ

RB Gus Edwards vs. JAX

WR Tim Patrick vs. BUF

WR Rashard Higgins at NYG

WR Russell Gage vs. TB

WR Anthony Miller at MIN

TE Jordan Reed at DAL

TE Irv Smith vs. CHI

K Matt Gay vs. NYJ

K Robbie Gould at DAL

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. PHI

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Nick Mullens at DAL

RB Ito Smith vs. TB

WR James Washington at CIN

WR Kendrick Bourne at DAL

TE Cole Kmet at MIN

K Cairo Santos at MIN

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals vs. PIT

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.