This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 303 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 303 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 303 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
(C) Alex Pereira (10-2-0) v. Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,500), Prochazka ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-150), Prochazka (+125)
Scrambling to find a main event for International Fight Week following the withdrawal of an injured Conor McGregor, the UFC goes back to a fight we saw last November. It's a reasonable outcome in what was a very difficult situation.
Pereira knocked out Prochazka in Round 2 in the first fight at Madison Square Garden to win the title before blowing through a clearly-injured Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April. Eight fights into his UFC career, Alex is 7-1, with wins over the likes of Prochazka, Hill, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. A title holder in two weight classes, Pereira would be heading to the UFC Hall of Fame if he decided to call it quits tomorrow. It should be noted that Alex has been dealing with some broken toes of late, but the ailment clearly wasn't enough of an issue to force him to pass on this opportunity.
Prochazka also fought at UFC 300, getting back in the win column with a second-round knockout win over Aleksandar Rakic. It's impossible not to love this guy. Prochazka has insane power and is tough as nails. He thrives in wild brawls, and while he may eventually crumble, it takes the kitchen sink and then some to get him out of there.
The striking numbers in the first fight were similar. Pereira closed with a 38-30 edge in significant stirkes landed and 49-44 edge in total strikes landed. The flurry that put Jiri away late in Round 2 was really the lone massive blows of the fight. Neither man appeared to have a clear edge in terms of technical striking, which is a big deal for Prochazka given Pereira's 33-2 professional kickboxing record.
It should be noted that Prochazka did land a takedown in the first fight. He also failed on two other attempts. Grappling Alex is clearly the way to beat him, but Pereira has improved in that area, and it's not Jiri's greatest strength, either. Maybe Prochazka can hit one at a key time to steal a round, but I don't expect it to be the game plan of either man.
I had no strong lean the first time these two fought and feel the same way this time around. Both are brawlers with crazy power. That said, Jiri's brawling tendencies worry me a bit more than Pereira's. I'm not sure Prochazka can win anything other than a crazy slugfest.
I have a very hard time backing a guy that absorbs 5.43 significant strikes per minute at this level. Pereira, on the other hand, absorbs 3.65 significant strikes per minute. That's a massive difference.
When push comes to shove, give me Alex in a carbon copy of the first fight. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to watch.
THE PICK: Pereira
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Brian Ortega (16-3-0, 1NC) v. Diego Lopes (24-6-0)
DK Salaries: Ortega ($7,800), Lopes ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Ortega (+120), Lopes (-140)
This is another fight that came together just a couple weeks before the event. Neither of these two were on the radar to compete here before the top of the card had to be reshuffled.
Ortega returned from more than a year and a half on the sidelines this past February to defeat Yair Rodriguez, a solid opponent, via third-round submission. It took Ortega a round to find his range, but once he did, he steamrolled Rodriguez. I backed Yair in that fight and paid for it. Ortega is a notoriously slow starter, so it shouldn't be surprising that he struggled early before finding his range. I still don't think "T-City" is a true title contender at 145 pounds, but he's right back in the top-five conversation after that effort.
This is a significant step up in competition for Lopes and he deserves it. The 29-year-old Brazilian competed on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2021 and dropped a technical decision to Joanderson Brito, a good opponent. He finally got the call to the main roster in May 2023 and dropped a unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev, another stud. Since then, Lopes has run off three straight stoppage wins over Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini and Gavin Tucker. Those are three solid victories, but none of those guys are on the level of Brito, or Evloev or Ortega.
Ortega's striking has improved over the course of his career. His striking defense is still pretty ugly, but he's gotten a bit more aggressive on the feet over the years and that's helped. It's certainly not the strength of his game, but it's gotten better. Any prolonged kickboxing exchanges should favor Lopes. He's bigger, longer, and has more pure power.
I'm very interested in seeing how Ortega fares as the smaller man. At 5-foot-8, he's one of the bigger guys at 145 pounds. The problem is that Lopes is 5-foot-11 and will also enter with a three-inch edge in reach.
Ortega's win condition is typically via submission. It's worth noting Lopes has never been submitted in 30 professional fights. It's also important to remember Ortega, for all his mat abilities, is not a great wrestler. He's awesome on the ground but has a tough time getting his opposition there. He averages just 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing 27 percent of his attempts.
All that said, I'm backing Ortega because I'm not falling into the same trap I did a week ago. I took Ikram Aliskerov last week over a perennial title contender in Robert Whittaker despite the fact Ikram hadn't beaten anyone of note. Yusuff, Sabatini and Tucker are all solid wins for Lopes, but none of those guys are on the level of Ortega. Until we see Lopes defeat a true high-level guy, I'm zigging when most of the market seems likely to zag.
THE PICK: Ortega
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (38-19-0) v. Roman Dolidze (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($7,800), Dolidze ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Smith (+120), Dolidze (-140)
This was supposed to be Jamahal Hill v. Khalil Rountree, but the latter failed a drug test and Carlos Ulberg made the no-brainer decision to step in on a little over a month's notice. Then Hill, who was likely never recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered last year, stepped aside, allowing Smith to earn yet another PPV main card payday. Then Ulberg withdrew due to injury, so we're left with Smith v. Dolidze, who is in on about a weeks' notice. Got all that?
Set to turn 36 years old in late July, Smith continues to chug along. He's just 2-3 in his past five fights but is fresh off a massive upset submission win over Vitor Petrino in May. Smith has done it all and seen it all in this sport. His win condition at this point in his career is usually via submission. It also helps when his opponent displays poor fight IQ. Both of those took place in his win over Petrino.
Dolidze began his UFC run with victories in six of his first seven bouts but has lost back-to-back fights since. The two setbacks came against high-end competition in Nassourdine Imavov and Marvin Vettori and both were via decision. 11 days older than Smith, Roman is no spring chicken himself. This is a fight he has to win if he hopes to remain semi-relevant at 205 pounds.
Anthony's great problem at this stage of his career is all the damage he's absorbed over the years. A professional since February 2008, Smith is frequently battered on the feet, absorbing 4.47 significant strikes per minute on average. Even in his best days he was always most comfortable in a brawl and now he doesn't possess either the head nor foot speed to avoid the blows coming back his way.
We've seen Dolidze rack up some massive knockout victories over guys that move far better than Smith does. Roman's volume can be severely lacking on the feet at times but he definitely possess the power to put you away in an instant.
Smith almost never wrestles, and while Roman can, he probably shouldn't here. Rolling around the mat with Smith is playing into what is likely his only path to victory. Dolidze should just try to bang it out on the feet, not make an egregious errors and hope the fragile Smith crumbles in the process.
The price for Dolidze seems quite fair. I could most definitely see a scenario in which Smith limits Roman's space, and Roman doesn't throw enough strikes, allowing Smith to land one big blow or two and take a tight decision. It's definitely on the table, which is why I'm not as confident in picking Dolidze as I'd like to be. In essence, I just find it impossible to back Smith at this stage of his career, especially against guys with legitimate power.
THE PICK: Dolidze
Women's Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1, 1NC) v. Macy Chiasson (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Bueno Silva ($8,800), Chiasson ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Bueno Silva (-115), Chiasson (-105)
Bueno Silva actually fought for the vacant title her last time out. She dropped a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington and looked quite poor in the process. Bueno Silva is 5-3-1 (1NC) in ten UFC bouts. Those five victories have come over Gillian Robertson, Mara Romera Borella, Wu Yanan, Stephanie Egger, and Lina Lansberg. She also choked out Holly Holm, but that result was changed to a no-contest after Bueno Silva failed her post-fight drug test. My point is that the Brazilian has zero history of defeating better competition, and her standing in the division is simply the result of the lack of depth at 135 pounds.
Chiasson hasn't been much better, alternating wins and losses in her past four fights. Again, she's struggled with better competition. Chiasson's UFC victories are over the likes of Pannie Kianzad (twice), Marion Reneau, Shanna Young, Gina Mazany and a split decision over Norma Dumont, which was her best win. Set to turn 33 years of age in late-July, there's zero reason to expect Chiasson to go on any sort of run moving forward.
Both these women are awkward, uncomfortable strikers. I don't trust either in an extended kickboxing match. The lone reason I give the advantage to Chiasson in that area is because she's five inches taller and will enter with a six-inch reach edge. She could theoretically stand at distance and pick Bueno Silva apart, but I don't think she has the requisite skill to do so.
Chiasson is definitely the better wrestler. She averages 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Bueno Silva defends the takedown at a middling 68 percent clip. Macy's technique isn't always perfect, but she's been and strong and can close distance quickly given her long limbs. Bueno Silva allowed Pennington to connect on just 1-of-3 attempts, but still gave up 11:28 worth of control time because Raquel pinned her to the cage for what seemed like the entire bout. I could see a similar outcome here.
If Macy does use her wrestling, she'll have to be careful to not leave a limb exposed. The submission game is by far Bueno Silva's cleanest and most effective path to victory. Four of her five UFC victories are via that method, and that's not counting the ninja choke that put Holm away.
Bueno Silva opened as upwards of a -240 favorite for this fight and a TON of money came pouring in on Chiasson, and I agree with it. I would never back Mayra at her salary regardless, but I actually think Macy is going to win this fight outright. It will probably be a grind, but Bueno Silva's entire UFC screams fluke to me. Toss in a ridiculous $1,400 in salary savings and this is a no-brainer.
THE PICK: Chiasson
Welterweight
Ian Garry (14-0-0) v. Michael Page (22-2-0)
DK Salaries: Garry ($8,200), Page ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Garry (-135), Page (+115)
Now 37 years of age, Page made his UFC debut in March after a long, excellent run in Bellator, and he took care of Kevin Holland via unanimous decision in a fight few people, myself included, thought he would be winning. It was a fight in which not a ton happened, and Page didn't look great late, but his length and excellent stand-up skills kept Holland off balance a good portion of the fight.
Garry isn't the most popular fighter on the roster, but it's impossible to argue with the results. The 26-year-old is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, with his last three wins coming against rock-solid competition in Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Daniel Rodriguez. Garry appears to be improving each and every time out, and he's already built up quite a resume for himself given his age.
This sets up as a matchup between two tall, rangy welterweights who excel on the feet.
Page is highly creative. We've seen him do some remarkable things over the years. He's been a low-volume striker at times, which was the case in the Holland fight, as he landed just 41 significant strikes over the course of 15 minutes. That type of number isn't going to get the job done against Garry. In Garry's last five fights that have gone the distance, his significant strike totals have been as follows: 67, 91, 116, 74. He also landed 127 in a bout against Song Kenan which was stopped with less than a minute left. In other words, he's been outworking the version of MVP we saw in the Holland fight.
I feel comfortable saying Garry has the edge in pure power, particularly at this stage of Page's career. He also has displayed a willingness to get in the pocket and throw down if necessary, which is something rarely seen from the technical MVP.
Garry has the skills set to negate Page's whopping five-inch reach advantage, but he can't get lazy with his entries. Page, in his dozen-plus years in the sport, has been in there against all types of opponents. We'll need to see the best version of Garry in order for him to get the job done.
I think we will.
THE PICK: Garry
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Joe Pyfer (12-3-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pyfer ($9,000), Barriault ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Pyfer (-300), Barriault (+240)
THE PICK: Pyfer
Featherweight
Cub Swanson (29-13-0) v. Andre Fili (23-11-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Swanson ($7,600), Fili ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Swanson (+200), Fili (-245)
THE PICK: Swanson
Featherweight
Charles Jourdain (15-7-1) v. Jean Silva (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Jourdain ($8,300), Silva ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Jourdain (-120), Silva (+100)
THE PICK: Silva
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott (8-0-0) v. Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Talbott ($9,800), Ghemmouri ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Talbott (-1600), Gemmouri (+900)
THE PICK: Talbott
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) v. Gillian Robertson (13-8-0)
DK Salaries: Waterson-Gomez ($7,500), Robertson ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Waterson-Gomez (+155), Robertson (-185)
THE PICK: Robertson
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (34-23-0, 2NC) v. Martin Buday (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Arlovski ($7,100), Buday ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Arlovski (+210), Buday (-260)
THE PICK: Buday
Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya (9-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tsuruya ($9,300), Hernandez ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)
THE PICK: Tsuruya
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (20-5-0) v. Vinicius Oliveira (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Simon ($8,900), Oliveira ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Simon (-220), Oliveira (+180)
THE PICK: Simon
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 303 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
