And, down the stretch we come! Last week we looked at the AL Central and this week and next, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering the NL West this week, and the AL West next. When the dust settles, we'll hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the delayed 2020 season. Let's look at the:
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are gradually reworking their roster, and their starting rotation has taken on a new look over the past couple seasons. It's a little unusual watching Madison Bumgarner wearing an Arizona uniform, but he headlines the new look D'Backs. Like so many pitchers, he suffered a jump in homeruns allowed, but he is adjusting, and despite pitching in a more hitter-friendly park, I expect a very solid year from him. Robbie Ray returns to co-anchor the rotation. I would also take Ray and his very appealing strikeout rate. As you know, lefties sometimes take a bit longer to lock in a release point, and Ray appears poised to refine his command and take the next step. Like the first two, Zac Gallen, who takes the third spot, looks like a good year might be in the cards. Just be aware, I don't think he has quite the raw stuff to repeat the dominating peripherals he posted last season. Next up is Luke Weaver. I like Weaver a lot – when he's healthy and in sync. I don't usually worry
And, down the stretch we come! Last week we looked at the AL Central and this week and next, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering the NL West this week, and the AL West next. When the dust settles, we'll hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the delayed 2020 season. Let's look at the:
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are gradually reworking their roster, and their starting rotation has taken on a new look over the past couple seasons. It's a little unusual watching Madison Bumgarner wearing an Arizona uniform, but he headlines the new look D'Backs. Like so many pitchers, he suffered a jump in homeruns allowed, but he is adjusting, and despite pitching in a more hitter-friendly park, I expect a very solid year from him. Robbie Ray returns to co-anchor the rotation. I would also take Ray and his very appealing strikeout rate. As you know, lefties sometimes take a bit longer to lock in a release point, and Ray appears poised to refine his command and take the next step. Like the first two, Zac Gallen, who takes the third spot, looks like a good year might be in the cards. Just be aware, I don't think he has quite the raw stuff to repeat the dominating peripherals he posted last season. Next up is Luke Weaver. I like Weaver a lot – when he's healthy and in sync. I don't usually worry much about them, but his early spring numbers have been ugly, and I'll monitor his progress when the season resumes to be sure he's 100-percent. The fifth spot probably comes down to Merrill Kelly or Mike Leake. Kelly was erratic in his first season in Arizona, and Leake is working his way back from a broken wrist (non-throwing hand). Both are back-of-the-rotation types, although I think Kelly could improve a bit if he wins the job. It's a pretty deep rotation, and barring injuries, arms like Alex Young and Jon Duplantier will probably be working out of the bullpen.
Again, this is a bullpen that could easily evolve. Archie Bradley is currently the best bet to open as their closer, but he could benefit from a more diverse role. He is really best suited to a "super reliever" job. However, that will require someone to step up and handle the ninth inning. I don't think it will be newcomer Hector Rondon who fits best as an eighth-inning guy, but it could be Kevin Ginkel. Ginkel looked very good last year, albeit over just 24 innings, and I think if he continues to prove himself, he could eventually land the closer's gig. Yoan Lopez is a longshot for the gig as Arizona likes him better in a set-up role where he can be fairly effective. Righties Young, Duplantier and Junior Guerra, along with lefty Andrew Chafin, will handle the earlier innings.
Recapping the Diamondbacks:
The arm to own: Robbie Ray appears ready to take a step forward.
He'll likely be overpriced: I don't believe Zac Gallen can match last season.
Best of the bullpen: Archie Bradley today, but monitor Kevin Ginkel.
Colorado Rockies – Coors Field is still Coors Field, and pitchers who spend half their time there are still fantasy risks. It takes a special kind of pitcher to survive, let alone thrive, in Colorado, and not many can make the grade. German Marquez might be the closest they have. Unlike previous seasons, his splits for road and home performance were relatively neutral. He has the stuff to get it done anywhere, but he has to limit baserunners, and that has been troublesome. He's a back-of-the-rotation option, but he will cost some ERA and WHIP. Jon Gray is the other top arm on the staff. With a very lively arm, he's worth considering, but like Marquez, his peripherals aren't likely to help you in those categories. Interestingly, he has actually fared a bit better at home, making him slightly less risky as an everyday starter. Kyle Freeland is different. He doesn't have the big arm of Marquez or Gray, but I do like his mound presence. Not surprisingly, following a jaw-dropping 2018, regression was to be expected, but regression amounting to a walk off a cliff was a little much. Homeruns (at twice the rate of 2018) were the major problem. I think he'll tone that down, and we can expect numbers somewhere between 2018 and 2019. Speaking of walking off cliffs, after the top three, the pretenders for the last two spots are fantasy napalm. I suppose Chi Chi Gonzalez is the favorite to claim one spot. After all, he had the best ERA of the prime suspects at a mere 5.29. Peter Lambert and Antonio Senzatela made 44 combined starts last year, and the results were awful. Maybe the Rockies will just run the hotter hand out there, but none of these guys should be on a fantasy roster. The perennial darkhorse candidate has perhaps the biggest raw arm of the bunch. Jeff Hoffman has some upside, but he faltered badly last season as well. I'd like to see them try him in the bullpen.
The Rockies have invested heavily in their bullpen of late, and it hasn't worked out. Wade Davis reportedly will return as their closer after a horrible (1.88 WHIP and 8.65 ERA) season that saw him lose the job in late in 2019. He actually looked that bad. Scott Oberg took over closing duties before an injury prematurely ended his season. He'll serve as the eighth-inning guy, but he should have the ninth inning all his own fairly soon. They do have a deep pen beyond those two including lefty Jake McGee, who is joined by a former set-up specialist, Bryan Shaw, along with live-armed Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez, but risk probably trumps their potential reward.
Recapping the Rockies:
The arm to own: If I have to own one it would probably be Jon Gray.
He'll likely be overpriced: Anyone not named Gray or maybe Marquez.
Best of the bullpen: Probably Scott Oberg, but Jairo Diaz is a deep sleeper.
Los Angeles Dodgers – While most teams are still sorting things out in mid-March, the Dodgers have already announced their rotation plans, although that could change. Long known for excellent pitching, the Dodgers don't stay on top without a steady flow of top shelf talent. And, a little changing of the guard is taking place. Clayton Kershaw is getting a little older, and he has dealt with some nagging injuries, but he appears to be making the transition from young, big arm, to still having a pretty big arm to an even more wily veteran. He remains at the top of their rotation, albeit sharing that spot with a star on the rise. The heir apparent is Walker Buehler. Let's put it this way. He has the stuff, and he has the mound presence. And, we haven't seen his best yet. If I were to compile a five-man dream fantasy rotation for the next several years, Buehler would be on it. Enough said? Moving on, it seems a bit strange listing David Price as a No. 3, but that's where he slots in. Coming over to the West Coast, Price has looked much better this spring. Maybe he's finally healthy, or maybe it's the changes in latitudes angle? Maybe both, but I anticipate a big season from him. The deep Dodgers' mound corps affords them the luxury of using one of the top pitching prospects in the game as a No. 4. Injuries have slowed the progress of Julio Urias, but he's to take a regular turn, and this might be your last chance to get him at a modest discount. He pitched just 80 innings last season, so his workload will be monitored, but he has true ace upside. Alex Wood fills out the rotation, and he also appears healthy after an injury-marred 2019. He's certainly not a typical No. 5, so he might also be worth targeting on draft day. It's very unlikely the team will navigate the season with just those five. Another good youngster, Dustin May, likely will see some starts as will swingman Ross Stripling, but they are fringy fantasy buys unless a regular spot opens up. Want more? Okay, veteran Jimmy Nelson is also in camp. He looked like he was putting it together back in 2017 before injuries (with many setbacks) put everything on hold. To start, he'll need to show he is healthy.
Last year, Kenley Jansen wasn't the lights-out closer we've come to know and love. His dominating cutter lost a tick and wasn't as sharp as it has always been. He's looked sharper this spring, and he is adjusting his pitch mix. I believe he'll again be a top closer. Getting to Jansen has sometimes been a challenge, too, but the Dodgers are addressing that. Experienced endgamer Blake Treinen should fill a key set-up role (as well as serving as Jansen's insurance policy). He, along with Joe Kelly should be a huge boost in bridging the gap. From the left side, Scott Alexander and Caleb Ferguson, provide balance. On paper, this is a unit that should be fairly reliable. One other name to watch is Brusdar Graterol. He has an electric arm, and perhaps a switch to the bullpen will help him stay healthy. He has future closer upside.
Recapping the Dodgers:
The arm to own: All of them? Julio Urias may be the biggest bargain.
He'll likely be overpriced: I'm not a believer in Jimmy Nelson just yet.
Best of the bullpen: Kenley Jansen, but dynasty owners watch Brusdar Graterol.
San Diego Padres – Another intriguing organization. The Padres are developing some nice arms in their system, and they are adding pieces via trades and free agency that could see them in playoff contention in the near future. Looking at a rapidly improving rotation, first up is Chris Paddack. He impressed everyone last year with his command of the strike zone and quality repertoire. He's the real deal, but there was some good luck involved too (a .237 BABIP) so some regression can be expected. Regular readers will know that my focus on the Friars staff was centered on Dinelson Lamet before he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2018. He returned in midseason last year, and there was some rust, but it was clearly still there. He is just slightly better with command and refinement of his off-speed stuff from a breakout season. They have also brought along Garrett Richards who missed almost all of 2019 while also working his way back from Tommy John surgery. I saw a couple innings this spring, and I had visions of the 2014-15 version of Richards. Joey Lucchesi is next, and he is an adequate back-of-the-rotation guy. He could even potentially be useful on deeper fantasy rosters. Veteran Zach Davies or perhaps Cal Quantrill should fill out the rotation, at least early on. But just be patient, they have more quality kids on the way. Their rich system features MacKenzie Gore, Michel Baez and Luis Patino, all high-quality prospects. Gore, in particular, is a must own in keeper/dynasty leagues. He might have the highest ceiling in the organization, and that's saying a lot.
The Padres have a very reliable closer in Kirby Yates, and they are surrounding him with a very competent support group. Andres Munoz and Emilio Pagan – likely next in line for saves behind Yates – and Craig Stammen are the righties, while Matt Strahm, Drew Pomeranz (finally in the pen where he should be more consistently effective), and Adrian Morejon handle the left side. That's a very deep and talented bullpen.
Recapping the Padres:
The arm to own: Dinelson Lamet is on the brink of a major breakout.
He'll likely be overpriced: Chris Paddack is very good but his could be inflated.
Best of the bullpen: Kirby Yates has become one of the most reliable closers.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants pitching staff, both the rotation and bullpen, present some challenges to assessment. After a decade of leadership, their former staff ace, Madison Bumgarner, has moved on to Arizona. That leaves a trio of veterans with mixed results in recent years at the top of the rotation. Johnny Cueto, who missed most of the past two seasons as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, was a solid starting pitcher, but at age 34, it's hard to say how he'll bounce back or how many innings he can contribute. I've always liked his ability to keep hitters off balance, so I'm cautiously optimistic. Jeff Samardzija is no longer a power pitcher with a big arm, but he is doing a reasonable job of transitioning to more of a finesse pitcher. He posted respectable numbers last year, but there was some luck involved, and his strikeout rate has continued to decline, so league average might be a best-case scenario. That's two of their frontline starters, and now we come to Kevin Gausman. He joins the Giants this year after a disastrous season where he posted an awful ERA (5.72) and WHIP (1.42), with stops in Atlanta and Cincinnati. Long time readers are very aware of my opinion of Gausman, so I won't belabor the point. Can the Giants find the key to his success? It just gets more daunting after the top three. Wade Miley, Dereck Rodriguez, Tyson Ross, Logan Webb and Shaun Anderson are all in the hunt for the four and five slots, and they all have one other thing in common – they probably won't help a fantasy team. If I had to take one, it would probably be Anderson, and hope they make him their closer.
The bullpen might be more unsettled than the rotation. Mark Melancon and Will Smith are gone. The most logical replacement, Reyes Moronta, underwent shoulder surgery and won't be back before late in the season, if then. Tony Watson is probably the best bet for saves right now, but he is much better suited to a set-up role. After Watson, things really get cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Maybe the twin brother of Twins' closer, Taylor Rogers? Taylor and Tyler Rogers might be twins but there isn't much similarity on the mound. Taylor is a southpaw, while Tyler is a right-handed submariner with an 82 mph fastball. I don't see it. Maybe journeymen Nick Vincent or Trevor Gott will get a shot. The truth is, there isn't a viable closing candidate on the roster.
Recapping the Giants:
The arm to own: On this staff it's probably Kevin Gausman, but don't quote me.
He'll likely be overpriced: Gausman could also potentially claim this spot.
Best of the bullpen: Tony Watson I guess. He should get saves or holds.
Next week we'll wrap up our pitching staff previews with a look at the AL West.
