Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Thursday Night Special

Green Bay Packers D/ST at SF — UPGRADE ⬆️

24% started on Yahoo, 12% on ESPN

The Niners had the Packers' number last year, beating them by 29 points during the regular season and then by 17 in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco's running backs combined for a 19-110-2 rushing line in the first matchup, while Raheem Mostert singlehandedly ran for 220 yards and four TDs in the playoff win.

A lot has changed since Mostert's big day, but one thing that hasn't budged is Green Bay's inability to stop the run. Dalvin Cook had a four-TD day of his own last week, pushing the Packers down to 22nd in run-defense DVOA (-1.3%) and 24th in YPC (4.7). Despite their 5-2 record and plus-32 point differential, the Packers have allowed a league-high 31.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, yielding 4.7 YPC and 8.7 YPT.

It would be a nice matchup for rookie running back JaMycal Hasty — who led the 49ers with 12 carries last week — if not for the ugly situation injuries and COVID-19 have created for his team. The Niners have seven starters on offense ruled out for Thursday's game, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams and each of the top-three wide receivers.

The Niners will need Hasty and McKinnon to contribute to the pass-catching effort for backup QB Nick Mullens, especially if TE Jordan Reed (knee) or WR Richie James (ankle) isn't ready to play. Slot specialist Trent Taylor is the only healthy wide receiver on the active roster, while Ross Dwelley and rookie sixth-round pick Charlie Woerner are the healthy tight ends. The Niners figure to call up a few players from their practice squad, likely some combination of Kevin White (yes, THAT Kevin White), River Cracraft and Chris Finke.

Speaking of the practice squad, Green Bay could have Dexter Williams in the lead backfield role, as Aaron Jones (calf) is listed as questionable and both Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The other RB option is Tyler Ervin, who has played only four of his 108 snaps this season in the backfield, per PFF, primarily working as a slot receiver instead.

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are really the only safe fantasy starters from this game, though Hasty, McKinnon, Robert Tonyan and (possibly) Dexter Williams also offer some degree of appeal. It remains to be seen if the Packers will activate Allen Lazard (core muscle) from injured reserve, a move that  could put Marquez Valdes-Scantling out of a starting job. MVS caught only eight of 18 targets for 96 yards with Lazard out for the past four games.

Upgrade

Quarterback

• Justin Herbert vs. LV

66% started on Yahoo, 62% on ESPN

Herbert's production screams every-week starter, but he wasn't even drafted in most fantasy leagues, which means a lot of the managers who picked him up already had a solid QB1. If your other option is Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray, it's probably best to keep Herbert on the bench or try to trade him. If the alternative is any quarterback besides the three just mentioned, Herbert likely warrants a spot in your Week 9 lineup.

The rookie is coming off four straight games with three or more touchdowns and 24 or more fantasy points, despite facing respectable defenses (TB, NO, DEN) in three of those contests. His only softball matchup came against Jacksonville in Week 7, when he ripped off 38.5 FPs and four TDs. Herbert gets another favorable draw this week, with the Chargers hosting a divisional rival that's ranked 27th in pass-defense DVOA (21.2%) and 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.2 per game).

• Honorable Mentions: Deshaun Watson, HOU at JAX; Josh Allen, BUF vs. SEA; Cam Newton, NE at NYJ

Running Back

• Justin Jackson vs. LV

62% started on Yahoo, 54% on ESPN

Jackson finally had a big game last week, picking up 142 yards on 20 touches despite sharing backfield snaps with Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope. The three-way split isn't exactly ideal, but Jackson nonetheless has solid workload averages in his three weeks as a starter — 12.3 carries for 57.3 yards, plus 4.3 catches for 39.7 yards on 5.7 targets. And while he hasn't seen much red-zone work, Jackson doesn't necessarily need goal-line carries in order to make his way into the end zone in a home game against a bad defense. The Raiders are 31st in run-defense DVOA (7.1%) and 27th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.9).

• Damien Harris at NYJ

44% started on Yahoo, 32% on ESPN

Harris gets the ball whenever he's on the field, averaging 12.3 carries but only 19 snaps in his four games. Coming off last week's career-best performance, he should find himself in another game where the Patriots are able to stick with the run, rather than leaning on Rex Burkhead or James White in catch-up mode. The Jets have done a decent job defending the run in terms of per-play efficiency (10th in DVOA, 10th in YPC), but their overall putridness creates a fertile environment for running backs to pile up carries and score touchdowns. Only six teams have allowed more fantasy points to RBs, and the trend should continue Monday night with New England favored to win by a touchdown.

• Honorable Mentions: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. CAR; David Johnson, HOU at JAX; Jerick McKinnon, SF vs. GB

Wide Receiver

• Cole Beasley vs. SEA

34% started on Yahoo, 30% on ESPN

This is also a great matchup for Stefon Diggs and John Brown, but the former is a weekly auto-start and the latter has been completely ineffective while playing through a knee injury. Beasley is still available on waivers in a lot of fantasy leagues, and he may be flying under the radar after he had his worst game of the season last week, playing in bad weather against a tough New England secondary. 

Still on pace for an 82-988-4 receiving line, Beasley should bounce back against a Seattle defense that's given up a league-high 46.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, 7.4 more than any other team (Minnesota - 39.3). The Seahawks also have some relevant injury concerns, with both slot corner Ugo Amadi and his replacement D.J. Reed missing Wednesday's practice with hamstring injuries.

• Jerry Jeudy at ATL

38% started on Yahoo, 19% on ESPN

While we may not be sure what Jeudy's role will look like, we do know he'll be running his routes against a subpar Atlanta secondary, be it in the middle of the field or closer to the sidelines. The rookie has mostly worked as the Broncos' slot man in three-wide sets, seeing four-to-nine targets and 57-to-75 percent snap share in each of his first six NFL games.

Last week, Jeudy hit career highs for both snap share (89 percent) and targets (10), sliding out to the perimeter while fellow rookie KJ Hamler handled most of the slot work. Denver could shift back to the old alignment if Tim Patrick (hamstring) returns this week, but Jeudy should run plenty of routes either way. 

• Honorable Mentions: Will Fuller + Brandin Cooks, HOU at JAX; Chase Claypool, PIT at DAL; Marvin Jones, DET at MIN; Darnell Mooney, CHI at TEN

Tight End

• Noah Fant at ATL

61% started on Yahoo, 62% on ESPN

Looking at per-game averages among tight ends, Fant ranks fifth in targets (7.2), fourth in catches (4.8), fourth in yards (50.7) and fourth in air yards (54.3). Touchdowns and big plays have been the only thing missing, and we should see at least one of the two — if not both — remedied this weekend against the Falcons. No team has allowed more fantasy points (15.6) to tight ends, nor has any team surrendered more touchdowns (eight) to the position. Fant has a solid case to be ranked as high as fourth or fifth among TEs for Week 9.

• Honorable Mentions: Eric Ebron, PIT at DAL

Kicker

• Ka'imi Fairbairn at JAX

13% started on Yahoo, 8% on ESPN

Fairbairn was listed in this same spot last time he faced Jacksonville, ultimately kicking three field goals and three PATs en route to 13 fantasy points back in Week 5. He's still a relatively reliable kicker, and Houston has the third-largest implied total (28.5) of Week 9.

• Honorable Mentions: Chris Boswell, PIT at DAL; Michael Badgley, LAC vs. LV; Dan Bailey, MIN vs. DET

Downgrades

Quarterback

• Teddy Bridgewater at KC

16% started on Yahoo, 12% on ESPN

The Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs with the sixth-worst implied total (21.25) of the week, riding a three-game losing streak into Kansas City. In previous seasons, we often saw quarterbacks and pass catchers put up big numbers while playing from behind against the Chiefs. This year, the KC defense has been a beast in its own right, ranking seventh in DVOA against the pass (-11.4%) and sixth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (16.3). Meanwhile, Bridgewater has slumped to 23rd among QBs in fantasy scoring average (17.0), accounting for only three TDs in his past three games.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson, BAL at IND; Drew Brees, NO at TB; Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. CHI; Philip Rivers, IND vs. BAL

Running Back

• Ezekiel Elliott vs. PIT

89% started on Yahoo, 92% on ESPN

Between bye weeks, injuries and COVID-related absences, the majority of Elliott's fantasy mangers probably can't afford to bench him. But those who can probably should, as it's no longer automatic to put Zeke in the weekly Top 10 among running backs. He belongs closer to 15th this week, with Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush starting at quarterback against one of the best defenses in the leagues. The Cowboys have an implied total of 14 points, 3.5 lower than even the Jets.

• Jonathan Taylor vs. BAL

60% started on Yahoo, 56% on ESPN

The combination of workload uncertainty and a difficult matchup makes Taylor a high-risk start for Week 9. He also happens to be dealing with an ankle injury, which may or may not have been part of the reason Jordan Wilkins took over as the lead runner after halftime last week. Perhaps it was just a one-week blip, but even if Taylor is reinstated as the top gun, he's likely to share some of the carries with Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. That might get the job done against a bad defense, but it's a major problem when you're facing a team that leads the league in run-defense DVOA (-38.1%) and ranks third in fantasy points allowed to running backs (16.2).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Devin Singletary, BUF vs. SEA; Gus Edwards, BAL at IND; Ronald Jones, TB vs. NO

Wide Receiver

• DeVante Parker at ARZ

50% started on Yahoo, 33% on ESPN

Parker could see shadow coverage from Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, but the bigger concern is what's happening with the Dolphins. Parker has seen more than eight targets just once this season, and last week he dropped all the way to two targets and 59 percent snap share. Preston Williams also had a quiet afternoon in terms of production, but he at least got five targets and played 90 percent of snaps. With Parker taking a step back from last season while the rest of the team takes a step forward, his six-target-per-game average may just be the new reality. That's especially true if Tua Tagovailoa continues to look like a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

• Darius Slayton at WAS

42% started on Yahoo, 24% on ESPN

Slayton is a good player who sometimes looks like a superstar in the making, but everything that's out of his control seems to be working against him this week. Washington ranks second in pass-defense DVOA (-18.2%) and first in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (20.8), with Eagles TE Dallas Goedert being the only pass catcher to reach 100 yards against the WFT this season.

Daniel Jones and the Giants O-line against an impressive pass rush hardly sounds promising, and there's also the secondary issue of Slayton's target share dropping to 19.4 percent in Sterling Shepard's three healthy games this year. Slayton bumped up to 25 percent share during Shepard's four-game absence, a stretch that included his 2-41-1 receiving line in the first matchup with Washington. Barring another touchdown, Slayton is likely to disappoint this weekend.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup, DAL vs. PIT; Corey Davis, TEN vs. CHI; Emmanuel Sanders, NO at TB; Christian Kirk, ARZ vs. MIA

Tight End

• Jared Cook at TB

63% started on Yahoo, 46% on ESPN

Cook enters Sunday with a three-game touchdown streak, giving him 13 scores among his 62 regular-season catches in a Saints uniform. The downside is an average of 4.75 targets per game, including only 4.4 in five games with Michael Thomas (hamstring) inactive this year. Any hope for a Cook target surge probably dies with Emmanuel Sanders — and possibly Thomas — rejoining the lineup this week, plus the TD odds will be worse than usual against a Tampa defense ranked first in DVOA, second in yards per play (4.8) and seventh in points allowed (20.6 per game). Opponents have thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions against the Bucs this year.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. PIT

Kicker

• Joey Slye at KC

47% started on Yahoo, 43% on ESPN

First things first: If Robbie Gould or Greg Zuerlein is still your kicker, go drop him and pick up someone else. Just make sure it isn't Slye, whose team has the sixth-worst implied total (21.25) of Week 6, facing a tough defense on the road in a game that could be slightly impacted by wind (projections around 15 mph). Slye is a good kicker with a huge leg, but opportunity looks like an issue this week.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Robbie Gould, SF vs. GB; Greg Zuerlein, DAL vs. PIT; Rodrigo Blankenship, IND vs. BAL

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (30-69 percent rostered)

QB Matthew Stafford at MIN

QB Cam Newton at NYJ

RB Justin Jackson vs. LV

RB JaMycal Hasty vs. GB

RB Damien Harris at NYJ

WR Jerry Jeudy at ATL

WR Mike Williams vs. LV

WR Cole Beasley vs. SEA

WR Sterling Shepard at WAS

TE Eric Ebron at DAL

TE Mike Gesicki at ARZ

TE Logan Thomas vs. NYG

K Ryan Succop vs. NO

D/ST Washington Football Team vs. NYG

D/ST Green Bay Packers at SF

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-29 percent rostered)

QB Drew Lock at ATL

QB Kirk Cousins vs. DET

RB Rex Burkhead at NYJ

RB J.D. McKissic vs. NYG

WR Laviska Shenault vs. HOU

WR Darnell Mooney at TEN

WR Anthony Miller at TEN

WR Hunter Renfrow at LAC

TE Jordan Reed vs. GB - if he plays

TE Trey Burton vs. BAL

K Ka'imi Fairbairn at JAX

K Chris Boswell at DAL

K Michael Badgley vs. LV

D/ST Minnesota Vikings vs. DET

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Nick Foles at TEN

QB Kyle Allen vs. NYG

QB Jake Luton vs. HOU

RB Dexter Williams at SF

RB/WR Tyler Ervin at SF

RB Troymaine Pope vs. LV

WR Marvin Hall at MIN

WR Jakobi Meyers at NYJ

WR Denzel Mims vs. NE

WR Trent Taylor vs. GB

WR Marcus Johnson vs. BAL

TE Ross Dwelley vs. GB

TE Irv Smith vs. DET

K Tyler Bass vs. SEA

K Dustin Hopkins vs. NYG

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. DEN

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my fantasy teams. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

My poll for Week 9 involves the once-mighty backfield deity known as ZEKE, who also happens to be listed above with a matchup downgrade (but don't let that impact your answer!).

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.