This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:
- RotoWire's weekly projections
- RW weekly composite rankings
- RW Betting odds
- RW Target share page
- RW Snap count page
- RW Defense vs. Position stats
- RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
- Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
- Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
- Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
- Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.
Thursday Night Special
Green Bay Packers D/ST at SF — UPGRADE ⬆️
24% started on Yahoo, 12% on ESPN
The Niners had the Packers' number last year, beating them by 29 points during the regular season and then by 17 in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco's running backs combined for a 19-110-2 rushing line in the first matchup, while Raheem Mostert singlehandedly ran for 220 yards and four TDs in the playoff win.
A lot has changed since Mostert's big day, but one thing that hasn't budged is Green Bay's inability