Fantasy Football Start/Sit for Week 1: Streaming Options & More

Welcome back to Start/Sit and Steamers, your weekly home for examining matchups and lineup decisions throughout the NFL season. This is my seventh year writing the article, which is perhaps surprising given that I was never a fan of Start/Sit content on other websites.

My main gripe? Most of these articles give suggestions in a vacuum, without context about what level of player we should be starting/sitting instead. If someone tells me to start Jaylen Warren this week, I'm not quite sure if they mean Warren should be started no matter what, or only ahead of players in his ADP range, or somewhere in between. I generally think of 'start' as meaning a modest upgrade compared to where we'd normally rank/project a player, but not everyone sees it that way, nor does everyone have the same definition of words like 'modest' and 'slight'.

Week 1 presents an extra challenge because we have the least information available to estimate each player's baseline role/scoring, which is especially difficult for rookies and players in new offensive systems. By the end of September, we'll have a much better idea about everything from volume projections to overall team strength, able to incorporate some of those major early developments (like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry running wild last September).

For now, we have to deal with more uncertainty, which for me means putting more emphasis on talent (or at least our perception of it) and less emphasis on projections for the role/matchup. This is a matchups article, but even as the season progresses, I still preach restraint with moving players too far up/down in the rankings compared to baseline. The cases where we're pushing guys way, way up in rankings and projections are those where the so-called baseline is fluctuating, usually due to teammate injuries or an otherwise-expanding role.

That's what occurred the past few weeks with Bucs wideout Emeka Egbuka, who also happens to be highlighted below for his favorable Week 1 dome matchup in Atlanta. You'll notice that Egbuka and all the other players featured below have start percentages from Yahoo! listed, along with three start/sit alternatives provided. 

My hope is that the extra context makes things easier for readers. If nothing else, it forces me to approach the article in a more meticulous fashion, giving concrete examples of decisions I'd make rather than just throwing out names. 

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR) — 11% started

Start Over — J.J. McCarthy (at CHI), C.J. Stroud (at LAR), Justin Herbert (vs. KC)

Opening the Liam Coen era at home against a weak opponent, Lawrence should be started over most of the other signal-callers that were drafted as QB2s. Carolina's defense won't be as bad as it was last season, but there's a long way to go between there and competence after finishing 2024 dead last in an assortment of stats (including passing TDs, rushing yards and YPC allowed). That explains why Jacksonville is tied for the fifth-highest implied total (25.0) of Week 1, despite lingering questions about whether the offensive line is good enough for Lawrence and his weapons to shine all season.

• Other Good Matchups: Baker Mayfield (at ATL), Drake Maye (vs. LV), Daniel Jones (vs. MIA), Joe Flacco (vs. CIN)

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, news and everything going on around the NFL, head to RotoWire's NFL Fantasy Football News Today or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.

Running Backs 👍

• TreVeyon Henderson (vs. LV) — 73% started

Start Over — RB David Montgomery (at GB), RJ Harvey (vs. TEN), Isiah Pacheco (at LAC)

Henderson's Week 1 workload may disappoint relative to his top-40 ADP at the end of the summer, but it should at least be enough to warrant a lineup spot as an RB2, particularly against a Las Vegas defense that doesn't have much besides DE Maxx Crosby. After releasing Christian Wilkins this offseason, the Raiders arguably have the worst group of defensive tackles in the league, with any hope for upside resting on 2023 seventh overall pick Tyree Wilson finding more success inside after largely disappointing as an edge rusher the past two years. 

New England's offensive line had a better plan for offseason improvement, adding fourth overall pick Will Campbell, third-rounder Jared Wilson and veterans Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses. Crosby may give Moses fits, but the Raiders don't have another defender that stands out as a clear-cut, above-average starter. Advantage: Henderson.

• RB J.K. Dobbins (vs. TEN) — 16% started

Start Over — Kaleb Johnson (at NYJ), Jordan Mason (at CHI), Zach Charbonnet (vs. SF)

I can't tell you what the split between Dobbins and RJ Harvey will look like, but both can get double-digit touches easily enough if the Broncos earn a comfortable win over the Titans. That may well happen, with Denver favored by 7.5 points and ranking among the most popular Survivor picks of Week 1. Dobbins and Harvey stand to benefit in the not-so-unlikely event that rookie QB Cameron Ward falls apart in his NFL debut... on the road... against a top defense. Denver comfortably projects Top 10 for cumulative RB production this week, creating big-time upside for those willing to accept a touch of workload risk.

• Other Good Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (vs. MIA); Chuba Hubbard (at JAX); James Conner & Trey Benson (at NO); RJ Harvey (vs. TEN); Austin Ekeler (vs. NYG); Jerome Ford (vs. CIN); Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten & Tank Bigsby (vs. CAR)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Emeka Egbuka (at ATL) — 25% started

Start Over — Rome Odunze (vs. MIN), Chris Olave (vs. ARZ), Jakobi Meyers (at NE)

Egbuka starts his NFL career in a dome, against a shaky Atlanta defense, with both Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan (neck) out of the lineup. Egbuka's quarterback, Baker Mayfield, threw six touchdown passes in two games against the same defense last season, as part of a 41-TD, 4,500-yard campaign. You don't even need to be anything special to put up numbers as the No. 2 option in that type of attack -- as seen last December with Jalen McMillan. Now we'll see Egbuka, a 19th overall pick, featured alongside Evans for at least the first month of the season (probably longer).

• Michael Pittman (vs. MIA) — 9% started

Start Over — Rashid Shaheed (vs. ARZ), Cooper Kupp (vs. SF), Stefon Diggs (vs. LV)

Daniel Jones isn't any good, but he's much better than Anthony Richardson for supporting teammates' fantasy production, especially when talking about someone like Pittman who relies on short and intermediate passes. Jones and Pittman have been building chemistry the past few weeks and preparing for Week 1, while Josh Downs has been sidelined by a hamstring injury and Richardson working with the second-team offense.

I make no promises about the Jones-to-Pittman connection in general, but it should work well this Sunday against a Miami secondary that looks messy beyond S Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's with the Dolphins, again, but S Jevon Holland and CBs Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller are gone, plus CB Kader Kohou suffered an ACL tear during the first week of training camp. Late signings Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas may both play a lot of snaps Week 1, with the other main candidates being 2024 UDFA Storm Duck and 2025 fifth-round pick Jason Marshall. This might be the best matchup Jones and Pittman get all season, playing indoors against arguably the worst CB group in the league.

• Other Good Matchups: Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter & Dyami Brown (vs. CAR); Marvin Harrison & Michael Wilson (at NO); Drake London & Darnell Mooney (vs. TB); AJ Brown (vs. DAL); Mike Evans (at ATL); Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN); Josh Downs & Alec Pierce (vs. MIA)

Tight Ends 👍

• David Njoku (vs. CIN) — 71% started

Start Over — T.J. Hockenson (at CHI), Travis Kelce (at LAC), Evan Engram (vs. TEN)

Njoku was the eighth or ninth TE drafted in most fantasy leagues, yet can often be found as high as fourth or fifth in Week 1 rankings. That's partially a result of Joe Flacco being better for receiving production than the other QBs that Njoku figures to deal with later this season. The second factor is a favorable matchup, with Cincinnati having done little to improve its defense after a shootout-filled 2024 campaign. No team allowed more fantasy points to tight ends last season, in part because Njoku caught 18 of 24 targets for 142 yards and a TD in his two matchups with the Bengals. He's even worth considering as a FLEX starter for Week 1 if you have another tight end you really want in the lineup.

• Other Good Matchups: Tyler Warren (vs. MIA), Dallas Goedert (vs. BAL), Hunter Henry (vs. LV), Brenton Strange (vs. CAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Dak Prescott (at PHI) — 56% started

Start Instead — Brock Purdy (at SEA), Kyler Murray (at NO), Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR)

While mostly drafted as a back-end fantasy starter, Prescott should be treated as a volume-based QB2 for Week 1, facing the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. The Eagles lost a lot of talent this offseason after allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs last year, but those spring departures may have just opened the door for a new crop of breakthrough players, like 2024 third-round pick Jalyx Hunt at OLB and 2025 first-rounder Jihaad Campbell at ILB. Philadelphia's defense includes five first-round picks from the past four drafts, with Campbell joining CB Quinyon Mitchell, OLB Nolan Smith and DTs Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. 

The Dallas offense also has premium talent, including three offensive linemen named 'Tyler' who were first-round picks, but there isn't the same depth of quality, and the entire operation depends on a 32-year-old Prescott returning to form after his mediocre 2024 campaign ended early due to a torn hamstring. It's not hard to imagine a healthy Prescott and motivated George Pickens giving the Cowboys a prolific passing attack again, but there's also a lot that could go wrong, between Prescott's age/health, the uninspired choice of Brian Schottenheimer as head coach this offseason, defensive issues after Micah Parsons' departures and poor O-line depth. Prescott's fantasy managers are hoping for shootouts but may also get stuck with some blowouts.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jared Goff (at GB), C.J. Stroud (at LAR), Caleb Williams (vs. MIN), Cam Ward (at DEN)

Running Backs 👎

• Breece Hall (vs. PIT) — 85% started

Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (vs. MIN), RJ Harvey (vs. TEN), Tony Pollard (at DEN)

I don't necessarily think Hall should lose much work to Braelon Allen, but I'm not the one making decisions, which means there's a real chance Hall has serious competition for goal-line carries on two fronts — on a team that probably won't have a ton of TDs to go around. We're still starting Hall in most situations, but the combination of workload uncertainty and a matchup with Pittsburgh's veteran-laden defense makes him a low-end RB2 or high-end FLEX, i.e., someone you might bench in a 10-team league or on an extremely RB-heavy team. (I say all this as someone who still believes in Hall's talent but thinks he may need a change of scenery.)

• David Montgomery (at GB) — 64% started

Start Instead — Isiah Pacheco (at LAC), Jaylen Warren (at NYJ), Breece Hall (vs. PIT)

It's hard to say if there's smoke where there's fire when it comes to offseason chatter about new Lions playcaller John Morton giving Jahmyr Gibbs a larger portion of the backfield touches. Either way, Detroit's high-powered offense figures to take at least a small step back from last season, which means fewer TDs to go around and fewer games with extreme positive game script to pile up rushing stats in the second half. The concerns that accompany Montgomery into 2025 are magnified this week, playing on the road against a tough Green Bay defense, although I will say that I don't buy the Packers as 2.5-point favorites and am treating this game as more of a pick'em or toss up. That's still worse than Montgomery's usual situation, especially compared to 2024.

• Other Tough Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. HOU), James Cook (vs. BAL), Breece Hall & Braelon Allen (vs. PIT), Javonte Williams (at PHI)

Wide Receivers 👎

• George Pickens (at PHI) — 74% started

Start Instead —  Xavier Worthy (at LAC), DJ Moore (vs. MIN), Courtland Sutton (vs. TEN)

You can bet that the Eagles will make it a point to frustrate and be physical with Pickens, who makes his Cowboys debut Thursday night on the regular season's biggest stage. Even if he stays focused, Pickens will often have to deal with second-year cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, whose 4.33 speed creates some margin for error when dealing with deep threats. Pickens could always still hit on a big play or two, but this feels like a matchup where the volume will tilt more toward CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson on short passes. 

• Calvin Ridley (at DEN) — 46% started

Start Instead — Deebo Samuel (vs. NYG), Ricky Pearsall (at SEA), Matthew Golden (vs. DET)

Ridley has a strong volume projection for the season, thanks largely to weak competition for targets, but expectations for efficiency are much lower. Those expectations should be dropped about two notches lower even for Sunday's matchup, potentially facing shadow coverage from All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain while rookie quarterback Cam Ward is thrown right into the fire at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos were top 10 in a slew of defensive stats last season, including first in sacks (63) and QB hits (142) and second net yards per pass attempt (5.6). Ward's debut may be a stinker even if he isn't.

• Other Tough Matchups: WRs Puka Nacua & Davante Adams (vs. HOU); Garrett Wilson & Josh Reynolds (vs. PIT); Jakobi Meyers (at NE); Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer & Khalil Shakir (vs. BAL); Rashod Bateman (vs. BUF)

Tight Ends 👎

• Colston Loveland (vs. MIN) — 15% started

Start Instead — Kyle Pitts (vs. TB), Zach Ertz (vs. NYG), Hunter Henry (vs. LV)

Uncertainty is often a good thing when talking about season-long rankings, especially for someone like Loveland who was drafted well outside the Top 100 picks, often as the second TE on a fantasy team. For weekly projections, uncertainty is far less desirable, even if you're confident Loveland will push Cole Kmet aside soon. The Week 1 matchup demands a lot from the 21-year-old rookie, with Minnesota's blitz-happy defense often forcing opposing TEs and RBs into extra blocking responsibilities. Don't assume Loveland will get all the passing-down snaps just because he has far more natural talent than Kmet as a pass catcher.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jake Ferguson (at PHI), Dalton Kincaid (vs. BAL), Jonnu Smith (at NYJ)

Streaming Picks

For more streaming and matchups tips throughout the week, follow me on twitter: @FootballMammal.

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR)

RB Jerome Ford (vs. CIN)

RB Dylan Sampson (vs. CIN)

RB Ollie Gordon (at IND)

WR Darnell Mooney (at TB)

WR Christian Kirk (at LAR)

TE Hunter Henry (vs. LV)

TE Zach Ertz (vs. NYG)

K Jake Elliott (vs. DAL)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals (at NO)

Check out my Streaming Defenses article for the full D/ST scoop, w/ ranks for Week 1, Week 2 and Rest-of-Season.

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Tua Tagovailoa (at IND)

RB Kareem Hunt (at LAC)

RB Dameon Pierce (at LAR)

WR DeMario Douglas (vs. LV)

WR Adam Thielen (at CHI)

WR Joshua Palmer (vs. BAL)

WR Cedric Tillman (vs. CIN)

TE Brenton Strange (vs. CAR)

TE Chig Okonkwo (at DEN)

K Cam Little (vs. CAR)

D/ST Los Angeles Rams (vs. HOU)

D/ST Washington Commanders (vs. NYG)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Daniel Jones (vs. MIA)

RB Kyle Monangai (vs. MIN)

RB Kendre Miller (vs. ARZ)

WR Romeo Doubs (vs. DET)

WR Kayshon Boutte (vs. LV)

WR Alec Pierce (vs. MIA)

WR Darius Slayton (at WAS)

WR Andrei Iosivas (at CLE)

WR Dyami Brown (vs. CAR)

TE Mason Taylor (vs. PIT)

TE Theo Johnson (at WAS)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (at JAX)

K Brandon McManus (vs. DET)

K Daniel Carlson (at NE)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals (at CLE)

For more start/sit options, check out this video: