The Z Files: Top 50 Fantasy Pitchers So Far

The Z Files: Top 50 Fantasy Pitchers So Far

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Last week's Top 50 Hitters review went over well, so why not come back with the pitching version? As with the batters, year-to-date earnings were determined for the mound men, using parameters from a standard 5x5 league with 15 teams.

How to approach saves was a popular discussion during draft season, as was the utility of dominant relievers. I won't spoil the results, but a few of the notions proved prescient, at least so far.

Rank

Player

TM

$Earned

IP

W

SV

K

ERA

WHIP

1Shane BieberCLE$5246.6760751.350.81
 The question isn't how does he get away with such a high hard hit rate, but rather how do batters manage to square him up when they make contact?
2Lance LynnTEX$3845.3340501.590.86
 Obviously pitching very well, but numbers aided by unsustainable .189 BABIP
3Sonny GrayCIN$3441.6750551.941.01
 .261 BABIP a little low, but really nothing screaming "LUCKY". Even 80.4% LOB mark isn't that wacky.
4Max FriedATL$334050381.350.95
 Zero homers allowed. A 3.58 xFIP hints at what will happen when his good fortune runs out, though a high GB rate should minimize damage.
5Yu DarvishCHC$323750441.700.92
 Picking up where he left off, most notably a 4.2% walk rate (1.46 BB/9).
6Kenta MaedaMIN$3136.674040

Last week's Top 50 Hitters review went over well, so why not come back with the pitching version? As with the batters, year-to-date earnings were determined for the mound men, using parameters from a standard 5x5 league with 15 teams.

How to approach saves was a popular discussion during draft season, as was the utility of dominant relievers. I won't spoil the results, but a few of the notions proved prescient, at least so far.

Rank

Player

TM

$Earned

IP

W

SV

K

ERA

WHIP

1Shane BieberCLE$5246.6760751.350.81
 The question isn't how does he get away with such a high hard hit rate, but rather how do batters manage to square him up when they make contact?
2Lance LynnTEX$3845.3340501.590.86
 Obviously pitching very well, but numbers aided by unsustainable .189 BABIP
3Sonny GrayCIN$3441.6750551.941.01
 .261 BABIP a little low, but really nothing screaming "LUCKY". Even 80.4% LOB mark isn't that wacky.
4Max FriedATL$334050381.350.95
 Zero homers allowed. A 3.58 xFIP hints at what will happen when his good fortune runs out, though a high GB rate should minimize damage.
5Yu DarvishCHC$323750441.700.92
 Picking up where he left off, most notably a 4.2% walk rate (1.46 BB/9).
6Kenta MaedaMIN$3136.6740402.210.71
 Buoyed by .186 BABIP but 5.1% walk rate also keeping ducks off the pond.
7Trevor BauerCIN$3032.6730491.650.73
 Approaching Saberhagen-like every other year status. Elite spin rates getting it done.
8Liam HendriksOAK$2716.33210231.100.67
 Perfect in 10 chances, the exception to "better to wait on closers" mantra.
9Jacob deGromNYM$273520491.800.83
 Lack of wins has reached the comical stage.
10Lucas GiolitoCWS$2543.6730583.091.01
 Had 4.88 ERA and 1.41 WHIP two starts ago.
11Clayton KershawLAD$253040331.800.77
 Pitching well, but driven by 106.3% LOB mark -- 6 ER on 5 HR.
12Dylan BundyLAA$2538.3330442.580.89
 Reward for a stellar month in Anaheim could be a ticket back to the AL East.
13Gerrit ColeNYY$254140533.510.95
 One of only six qualified starters with more HR allowed (10) than walks (8), The others are Chris Paddack, Marco Gonzales, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Lester and Aaron Civale.
14Dinelson LametSD$2538.3320512.350.94
 Sure, .203 BABIP, 9.1% HR/FB and 86.3% LOB are a tad fortunate, but a higher K% and lower BB% show skills growth.
15Dallas KeuchelCWS$2343.3350262.701.04
 Wins balancing low whiffs in earnings. 56% GB rate helping keep homers down, 3.78 xFIP warns what could happen if luck runs out.
16Aaron NolaPHI$223630483.000.92
 Showing consistency he lacked last year.
17Zach DaviesSD$2235.6740313.030.84
 Big lift from Lady Luck with a 7.7% HR/FB mark. Beware, 4.14 xFIP portends trouble, especially with a low 38.3% GB rate.
18Framber ValdezHOU$2038.3330402.351.10
 Two homers perhaps artificially low, but also a function of 58% GB mark.
19Aaron CivaleCLE$194030403.151.03
 Big improvements in K% and BB% helping to fend off ERA correction based on last season's peripherals.
20Randy DobnakMIN$1930.3350161.781.02
 Unfair to call it a mirage, but the penalty for a high GB rate keeping the ball in the yard is usually a high BABIP, and Dobnak sitting at .226. A 4.08 FIP and xFIP foretell a bumpier second half.
21Kenley JansenLAD$1813.6718191.320.80
 Going Mariano on us, throwing over 70% cutters.
22Zack GreinkeHOU$1635.3310292.290.91
 How many pitchers have the guts to use a 65 mph Eephus curve to set up an 85 mph "fastball"?
23Merrill KellyARI$1631.3330292.590.99
 Expected to miss rest of season after being treated for a blood clot in his shoulder. Too bad as he's showing signs of improvement teased late last year.
24Zac GallenARI$153600422.251.06
 Everyone's favorite breakout guy coming through. That said, 93.8% LOB% says ERA correction on the way.
25Kyle HendricksCHC$143830283.551.00
 Keeps doing his thing.
26Marco GonzalesSEA$1334.6730313.631.01
 Numbers driven by a career best 22% K%, but SwStr is the same as last season (7.9%) when K-rate was 17%. Something has to give.
27Brandon WoodruffMIL$1336.6720413.191.15
 Numbers nearly identical to last season, with the exception of a lower HR/FB.
28Zach PlesacCLE$132110241.290.67
 Big spike to 31% K% supported by 13.5% SwStr%, but lost rotation spot to Triston McKenzie so we won't see if it's sustainable, at least for now.
29James KarinchakCLE$1216.6701310.540.66
 Confirming how useful dominant relievers are in today's landscape - there will be more on the list.
30Josh HaderMIL$129.3307130.000.54
 Mind-blowing he only has 9.1 IP without an injury.
31Hyun-Jin RyuTOR$123120333.191.03
 Showing his stuff plays even out of Dodger Stadium.
32Pablo LopezMIA$1127.3330271.981.24
 One homer allowed obviously helping, but 60% GB rate will do that. A .325 BABIP and 73.6% LOB hint at some bad luck. Let's hope for 4 or 5 more starts to get a better read.
33Zack WheelerPHI$1132.6730202.761.10
 Strikeouts artistically low, has nearly the same SwStr% as last season, but sporting career low 15.8% K% compared to last season's 23.5%.
34Jordan RomanoTOR$111422200.640.86
 Is this the same guy posting a 7.63 ERA and 1.70 WHIP last season? His player page says yes, but he's a completely different guy after adding 2 mph to his fastball and over 4 mph to his slider, which he's using much more.
35Kyle FreelandCOL$1137.6720242.871.12
 Catching big breaks at home where his K%-BB% is only 5.4%, but his LOB at Coors is 95.2%
36Chris BassittOAK$1133.3320282.971.08
 Solid pitcher, but not this good. Aided by .247 BABIP and 8.1% HR/FB.
37Cristian JavierHOU$113130313.771.03
 Fly ball pitcher, so a low BABIP is expected, but not .194.
38Matt FosterCWS$1013.3320170.000.53
 Don't assume no runs allowed is all luck. A 2.47 SIERA and 2.45 xFIP are encouraging.
39Jonathan HernandezTEX$1017.3330222.080.92
 Another example of the utility of a dominant reliever. Impressed in the spring and carried it over to the season.
40Danny DuffyKC$929.3320343.990.99
 Same SwStr% as last season, but Duffy's 2020 K% spiked to 28.3% after 19.7% in 2019. Landing point is likely in between.
41Antonio SenzatelaCOL$936.3330253.961.10
 Only 12 of 36.1 IP at home, but a 3.53 xFIP in Coors better than road 4.87 xFIP. Even so, stuff not good enough to keep up this pace.
42Brad HandCLE$99.6709133.721.03
 Nine saves in 9.2 IP says club is avoiding usage in non-save scenarios, but high total also driving earnings.
43Joakim SoriaOAK$914.6722171.231.02
 Has managed to squeeze in two saves despite Hendriks' league-leading 10.
44Nick AndersonTB$89.3313150.000.54
 Another guy without a run allowed, albeit in just 9.1 frames.
45Scott BarlowKC$81811221.500.94
 Could close if Trevor Rosenthal is moved at the impending deadline.
46Brad KellerKC$821.6730192.081.15
 No homers covering up for elevated 12.5% walk rate, but improved slider helping strikeouts. Control is key. Fewer walks and Keller has the stuff to take it up a notch. 
47Blake SnellTB$823.6720323.041.10
 Pitching like an ace, but earnings down since innings were limited early. Should be ready to lose the kids glove approach.
48Trevor RosenthalKC$813.6707213.291.17
 Health, and a history with Mike Matheny will do wonders.
49Dylan CeaseCWS$831.6740223.131.33
 High pedigree prospect, on the surface looks like a breakout, but a 5.56 xFIP and 5.97 FIP says pump the brakes.
50Elieser HernandezMIA$823.6710323.040.97
 Like his teammate Lopez, more starts are needed to gauge extent of the early success. However, a 3.52 xFIP is encouraging, though it's hard to imagine keeping up a 28.9% K%-BB% once the innings add up.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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