NFL Game Previews: Week 10 Matchups

Seattle (+6) at San Francisco, 46.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

For the record, my little jury-rigged formula for determining margin of victory matched the spread for the first time all year (Niners by six... 6.3, if you want to get nit-picky), so if this one ends up a push, don't say you weren't warned. Seattle needs a win here if they want to have any chance of winning the NFC West. A San Francisco win puts them 2.5 games up, and they'd have to completely collapse down the stretch to allow the Seahawks back in it. Fortunately, Russell Wilson is playing like a guy who can beat any team, any time, any where, and last week's overtime heroics against the Bucs were just par for the course for the QB this season. His second-worst YPA in a game this season is 8.1, and his 22:1 TD:INT through nine contests is simply incredible. Even the banged-up state of his offensive line doesn't seem to be an impediment. Wilson now gets his toughest test yet in the Niners, although that's also true the other way. They're second to the Pats in basically every major passing category other than yards per game allowed (where they're in first), and while they haven't faced quite the list of scrub QBs the Pats have, their most impressive conquests have come against the likes of Jared Goff and Jameis Winston. The epic clash between Wilson and the Richard Sherman-led secondary will take center stage, but the game itself might be decided by whether the Seattle defense can find a way to solve Kyle Shanahan's electric rushing scheme, and keep Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida out of the end zone. If they can make the game a battle between Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo instead, the Seahawks have a real chance at the upset.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hip), WR Josh Gordon (questionable, ankle), LT Duane Brown (questionable, biceps), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, back), C Joey Hunt (questionable, hip), RG D.J. Fluker (questionable, shoulder), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, toe)

SF injuries: RB Breida (questionable, ankle), TE George Kittle (questionable, knee), LT Joe Staley (questionable, lower leg), RT Mike McGlinchey (questionable, knee), DE Dee Ford (questionable, quad), K Robbie Gould (quad)

SEA DFS chalk: none

SF DFS chalk: Coleman (SEA 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

SEA DFS tournament plays: none

SF DFS tournament plays: Garoppolo (SEA 28th in passing yards allowed per game), Breida (see Coleman), 49ers DST (second in points allowed per game, first in sack percentage)

Key stat: SEA is fifth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 67.6 percent (25-for-37) of RZ possessions; SF is first in red-zone defense at 31.3 percent (5-for-16)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 SEA, average score 25-13, average margin of victory 12 points. SEA had won 10 straight meetings, including the 2013 NFC Championship game, before a 26-23 SF win in Week 15 last year.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Chris Carson picks up 60 yards. Wilson throws for 300 yards (a season high against SF) and TDs to Lockett and DK Metcalf. Coleman scampers for 90 yards and a score, while Breida adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 230 yards and a TD to Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers, 24-17

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+10), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

In other years, in other circumstances, this might seem like a clear trap game for the Ravens as they come down from the high of ruining the Patriots' undefeated season while the Bengals come off their bye. Even looking at the first meeting between these two, a 23-17 Ravens home win, might suggest the tables could turn in Cincinnati. It's not impossible, of course, but this is a game in which a prop bet of Lamar Jackson's rushing yards versus Ryan Finley's passing yards could draw plenty of money on the Jackson side. The Baltimore QB is on pace for more than 1,200 yards on the ground, which would absolutely demolish Michael Vick's rushing yards record (1,039 in 2006, to date the only 1000-yard season by a QB in NFL history). Meanwhile Finley, a fourth-round rookie who hasn't yet taken a snap as a pro, will make his first career start, as Andy Dalton gets benched for ... hmm, trying too hard, maybe? The Bengals are a mess on both sides of the ball, and even if Finley is the next Dak Prescott, he doesn't have a lot to work with, especially with A.J. Green still not ready to rejoin the lineup.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, illness), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, ankle), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, knee), RG Marshal Yonda (questionable, illness), S Earl Thomas (questionable, knee)

CIN injuries: WR Green (out, ankle), LT Cordy Glenn (questionable, concussion), RG Alex Redmond (out. ankle), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (out, knee)

BAL DFS chalk: Mark Ingram (CIN 31st in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CIN DFS chalk: none

BAL DFS tournament plays: Jackson (CIN 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QBs), Brown (CIN 32nd in DVOA against deep throws), Miles Boykin (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Ravens DST (CIN 29th in points per game)

CIN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: BAL is fifth in third-down offense at 47.5 percent; CIN is 23rd in third-down defense at 43 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-4 CIN, average score 22-21 CIN, average margin of victory eight points.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Ingram bangs out 110 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Justice Hill catches his first career touchdown. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a second score to Boykin while running for 90 yards. Joe Mixon scrapes together 60 combined yards and a score. Finley throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Ravens, 27-10
 

Buffalo (+3) at Cleveland, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

(checks spread) (double-checks spread) Really. Huh. It's not like I think the Bills are that great, and the Browns certainly have the more talented roster, but what have they actually done this year to warrant being considered Buffalo's equal on a neutral field? Since that surprising win over the Ravens in Week 4, Cleveland is 0-4 and have been outscored by an average of almost 13 points a game. Buffalo's offense may also be in a position to start taking a little pressure off the defense, as Devin Singletary emerges as the lead RB. The rookie saw 23 touches last week and topped 100 scrimmage yards for the first time, and now he gets to face one of the worst run defenses in the league. That Bills defense, meanwhile, is third in QB rating against and fifth in completion rate allowed, and it now gets a matchup with the guy who sits dead last in both categories among quarterbacks who have played every game this year. The cause of Baker Mayfield's sudden regression remains something of a mystery — the Browns have had a tough schedule, but not that tough — which might explain his Columbo (or, given that it's Cleveland, maybe it was supposed to be McGruff the Crime Dog) cosplay after their loss in Denver. Even with his poor performance, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are still posting solid numbers, but Nick Chubb has been the one really keeping the ship afloat. He's on pace for nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs, so what better time to disrupt his rhythm by dropping Kareem Hunt into the mix? Criminy. As I think Harry Truman once said, if you can't stand the heat, get Freddie Kitchens out of there.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: none

CLE injuries: TE Ricky Seals-Jones (questionable, knee), DE Olivier Vernon (out, knee), S Damarious Randall (questionable, hamstring)

BUF DFS chalk: Singletary (CLE 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed per game)

CLE DFS chalk: none

BUF DFS tournament plays: Bills DST (CLE t-28th in giveaways)

CLE DFS tournament plays: Chubb (BUF 30th in rushing DVOA)

Key stat: BUF is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 71.4 percent (15-for-21) of RZ possessions; CLE is 19th in red-zone defense at 57.7 percent (15-for-26)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Singletary busts out for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Josh Allen throws for 210 yards and a TD to Dawson Knox while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Chubb gains a season-low 60 scrimmage yards, while Hunt adds 50. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a TD to Landry. Bills, 24-16
 

Detroit (+2.5) at Chicago, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Lions came up short in Oakland last week, but not for lack of trying on Matthew Stafford's part. He threw for over 400 yards, and he's tossed at least 340 yards with three TDs in three consecutive games. It's no wonder he now has a sore back, given that he's been carrying the entire team on it once again. It would be nice if someone else stepped up for a change. The running game was struggling with Kerryon Johnson and hasn't gotten better without him, and the defense can't stop anyone on the ground or through the air. A date with the Bears (28th in points from its offense) might be a temporary cure for those issues, though. Mitchell Trubisky is busy playing himself out of job — his best single-game YPA this year is only 7.5, a number Stafford's topped by a healthy margin in every game but one — and while Matt Nagy's finally started to treat David Montgomery like his lead RB, Chicago only seems capable of winning when the defense is elite as opposed to merely good. After a 3-1 start in which the team didn't allow more than 15 points in a game, they're on an 0-4 skid allowing 17 or more every week and an average of 25.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, back), LG Joe Dahl (questionable, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, back), S Tracy Walker (out, knee)

CHI injuries: none

DET DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS chalk: none

DET DFS tournament plays: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: Trubisky (DET 30th in passing yards allowed per game)

Key stat: CHI is 28th in third-down offense at 31.4 percent; DET is 30th in third-down defense at 48.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DET, average score 23-21, average margin of victory seven points. CHI has won two straight after losing nine of the previous 10 meetings.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ty Johnson leads the DET backfield with 40 yards. Stafford throws for 260 yards and TDs to Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson. Montgomery picks up 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Trubisky throws for 220 yards. Lions, 17-13
 

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

This edition of the MetLife Bowl lacks a little pizzazz with the two teams coming in having combined for three wins, but it's still a battle for the hearts and souls of all New York sports fans (I mean, who else are they going to root for right now? The Knicks?) Daniel Jones keeps showing flashes of upside, but also keeps giving the ball to the other team like he's a Jameis Winston starter kit. Getting all his skill players healthy might help, but that's been a pipe dream so far, and the Giants' offensive line woes are preventing Saquon Barkley from taking some pressure off the rookie QB. That's still better than what Sam Darnold is dealing with, though. The second-year signal caller looked OK against Dallas in his first game back from a bout of mono and then immediately went into the tank, posting a 3:8 TD:INT and 5.6 YPA over the last three games, which the Jets have lost by an average score of 29-11. Three-fifths of his own offensive line is banged up, as is Le'Veon Bell, and a defense that seems like just Jamal Adams and 10 pylons isn't helping matters. This game could come down to who screws up the least, and there's really no way of predicting who that might be.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (out, concussion), TE Evan Engram (out, foot), C Jon Halapio (out, hamstring), RT Mike Remmers (doubtful, back)

NYJ injuries: RB Bell (questionable, knee), WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), TE Chris Herndon (questionable, hamstring), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), C Ryan Kalil (doubtful, knee), RG Brian Winters (questionable, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (out, groin)

NYG DFS chalk: none

NYJ DFS chalk: none

NYG DFS tournament plays: Giants DST (NYJ 32nd in points per game, t-28th in giveaways, 32nd in sack percentage allowed)

NYJ DFS tournament plays: Robby Anderson (NYG 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Thomas (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Jets DST (NYG 32nd in giveaways)

Key stat: NYJ have made the fewest trips to the red zone in the league with 12, scoring a TD on six of them (50 percent, 21st in the league); NYG are sixth in red-zone defense at 48.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Barkley piles up 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Darius Slayton and also runs in a score of his own. Bell gains 60 combined yards. Darnold throws for 270 yards and TDs to Anderson and Thomas. Giants, 24-23
 

Kansas City at Tennessee (+4), 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

He's baaaaack. Patrick Mahomes appears set to return this weekend, after Matt Moore did an admirable job keeping things rolling without him. The more important thing for the Chiefs' offense  might be that Andy Reid re-discovered that Damien Williams was, in fact, his best backfield option while Mahomes was sidelined. The parallels to Kareem Hunt's rookie can't be overlooked — Hunt started 2017 on fire, suddenly saw his touches and production dry up midseason, then exploded again in December. In Williams' case, he was on fire down the stretch last year, saw his touches and production dry up to begin this season after LeSean McCoy came aboard, and then exploded last week. If Williams can keep that up in the second half, Kansas City should get back to routinely popping for 30-plus points a game. The Titans, as they usually are, remain stuck in neutral. They haven't won or lost more than two games in a row this year, and while Ryan Tannehill has provided the passing game with a boost, the defense couldn't figure out how to stop Christian McCaffrey in last week's loss (to be fair, neither has anyone else.) This is still Derrick Henry's show, though. He's popped for at least 80 scrimmage yards or a TD in every game but one this year, and Tennessee's best plan of attack will be to ride their bell cow and try to keep Mahomes off the field — a plan that could pan out against a K.C. team most effective at stopping the run when it can force the opposition to abandon it and try to out-gunsling their elite gunslinger.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (questionable, ankle), DE Frank Clark (questionable, neck)

TEN injuries: WR Corey Davis (doubtful, hip), TE Delanie Walker (out, ankle), LB Jayon Brown (out, groin)

KC DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS chalk: Henry (KC 28th in YPC allowed)

KC DFS tournament plays: Chiefs (TEN 31st in sack percentage allowed)

TEN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: KC is eighth in third-down offense at 44.6 percent; TEN is sixth in third-down defense at 33.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Williams picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three scores, hitting Tyreek Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and Travis Kelce once. Henry plows ahead for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and TDs to Tajae Sharpe and Dion Lewis. Chiefs, 33-31
 

Arizona (+4.5) at Tampa Bay, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Cardinals have looked like gatekeepers this season, and facing them separates the wheat from the chaff — their wins have all come against also-rans (CIN, ATL and NYG) while their losses have been to legit playoff-caliber teams like BAL, NO and SF. That should bode well for their matchup against the 2-6 Bucs, but it might not be quite that simple. The Arizona offense has been fueled by its backfield, whether it's been David Johnson, Chase Edmonds or newcomer Kenyan Drake in the lead role, but Tampa Bay does a better job shutting down running backs than any other defense in the league — second in YPC allowed, first in yards per game allowed, first in DVOA, second in passing DVOA vs. RBs. It's probably going to be on Kyler Murray's arm to keep the points flowing for the Cards — unless it's on Jameis Winston's arm instead. He's tied with Baker Mayfield for the league lead in INTs, and his erratic reputation has gotten to the point that it was newsworthy when he didn't throw a pick last week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to thrive amidst the chaos – one of them has hauled in at least seven catches and 120 yards in seven straight games, and they've combined for 12 TDs over that stretch – and while that hasn't left a lot of production for anyone else, Ronald Jones at least appears poised to finally wrest the starting job away from Peyton Barber, the Demon Plodder of Not-So-Fleet Street.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RT Justin Murray (questionable, knee), LB Terrell Suggs (questionable, hamstring)

TB injuries: none

ARI DFS chalk: none

TB DFS chalk: Winston (ARI 29th in passing yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Evans (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ARI DFS tournament plays: Murray (TB 31st in passing yards allowed per game, t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Christian Kirk (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Cardinals DST (TB 31st in giveaways)

TB DFS tournament plays: O.J. Howard / Cameron Brate (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: TB is 20th in third-down offense at 38.1 percent; ARI is 29th in third-down defense at 46.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

DJ returns and leads the ARI backfield with 60 scrimmage yards. Murray throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Maxx Williams and Kirk. Jones gains 70 yards. Winston throws for 310 yards and three TDs, with Evans hauling in over 100 yards and one score while Howard emerges from hibernation with the other two. Buccaneers 30-20
 

Atlanta (+13) at New Orleans, 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I'm not exactly sure whether it says something about the role of the position coach in the modern NFL, or just about Dan Quinn, but the Falcons shuffling the deck chairs on their personal Titanic by, among other things, changing wide receivers coach Raheem Morris' portfolio to that of secondary coach seems like the last act of a desperate man. I dunno, maybe Quinn figures having a defense in last place in INTs is the only thing holding his 1-7 squad back. While Matt Ryan is over his ankle injury, the Saints also have their stud veteran QB back in the saddle, and Drew Brees looked just fine in Week 8 playing with a splint on his injured thumb. Alvin Kamara, who missed the last two games nursing lower-body injuries, is also back to full health, although the offense didn't skip a beat with Latavius Murray leading the backfield in his place. There's still a ways to go, but Week 14's clash between the Saints and Niners is shaping up to potentially decide home field in the NFC playoffs. (Incidentally, Week 14 also features the latest battle between the Patriots and Chiefs, which could do the same in the AFC, and other games with heavy postseason implications based on the current standings, like Ravens-Bills and Seahawks-Rams. Don't make plans December 8, is what I'm saying.)

The Skinny

ATL injuries: CB Desmond Trufant (questionable, toe)

NO injuries: none

ATL DFS chalk: none

NO DFS chalk: Michael Thomas (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

NO DFS tournament plays: Brees (ATL t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Ted Ginn (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NO is seventh in third-down offense at 45.2 percent; ATL is 32nd in third-down defense at 53.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 28-28, average margin of victory eight points. NO has won the last three meetings.

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Devonta Freeman manages 50 yards. Ryan starts and throws for 300 yards and TDs to Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper. Kamara racks up 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Brees throws for 320 yards and two scores, hitting Thomas (who tops 100 yards) and Ginn. Saints 34-17
 

Miami (+10) at Indianapolis, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The 1972 Dolphins can now rest easy and keep their attention on the Niners, as the 2019 Dolphins avoided sullying that undefeated season with a winless one of their own. Miami has looked better since their Week 5 bye – last week's 26 points against the Jets equaled their total from their first four games combined – but this is still a team losing by two scores to the likes of the Steelers and Bills, which is only an improvement compared to the massive deficits they were piling up earlier. The other shoe has yet to drop with Ryan Fitzpatrick, too. Since taking over (again) for Josh Rosen, he's posted a 7:3 TD:INT and 7.3 YPA in three-plus games, and you just know there's an implosion coming for Fitzmagic sooner or later. It's what he does. He's also running out of weapons on offense – Kenyan Drake's in Arizona, Preston Williams tore his ACL, and the league finally got around to suspending Mark Walton for his offseason brushes with the law. Mike Gesicki is coming off a good game, and DeVante Parker is still teasing his upside, so the passing game isn't completely bereft of talent, but the backfield is back in the hands of Kalen Ballage and his career 3.7 YPC. Where's Chris Berman when we need him to stick Ballage with the nickname "Excess". The Colts are banged up again, as Jacoby Brissett deals with a knee injury and T.Y. Hilton is set to miss his second straight game with a calf issue, but Zach Pascal – an undrafted rookie free agent in 2018 – appears to be stepping up in Hilton's absence.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Walton (out, suspension), C Daniel Kilgore (questionable, knee), RG Evan Boehm (questionable, hip)

IND injuries: QB Brissett (questionable, knee), WR Hilton (out, calf), WR Parris Campbell (out, hand), CB Pierre Desir (questionable, hamstring)

MIA DFS chalk: none

IND DFS chalk: Marlon Mack (MIA 31st in rushing yards allowed per game, 31st in rushing DVOA)

MIA DFS tournament plays: none

IND DFS tournament plays: Brissett / Brian Hoyer (MIA t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Nyheim Hines (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Pascal (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Chester Rogers (MIA 27th in DVOA vs. WR2), Colts DST (MIA 30th in points per game, t-28th in giveaways, 30th in sack percentage allowed)

Key stat: IND is third in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 67.9 percent (19-for-28) of RZ possessions; MIA is 27th in red-zone defense at 64.3 percent (18-for-28)

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Myles Gaskin leads the MIA backfield with 40 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 250 yards and TDs to Parker and Albert Wilson but gets picked off twice. Mack powers for 120 yards and a score. Brissett starts and throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Pascal, Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. Colts 31-17
 

L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh (+3.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Rams built some momentum back up prior to their bye by taking care of business against the Bengals and Falcons, but their season is still hanging by a thread. At 5-3, they're three games back of the Niners in the NFC West, and even a wild-card spot is looking dicey without a huge finish and/or some help. Todd Gurley seems healthy at the moment, but his volume is way down from last year, particularly in the passing game, and Jared Goff and Sean McVay haven't yet found a way to consistently pick up the slack. A defensive turnaround from a unit that now boasts Jalen Ramsey and a healthy Clay Matthews along with Aaron Donald could end up being their best hope for a big second half. The Steelers have climbed back to .500 with three straight wins, even if they needed Adam Vinatieri to pooch a kick to escape last week. Their run is kind of amazing when you look at all their injuries – James Conner is the latest casualty – but the defense keeps coming up with big plays to give Mason Rudolph a short field (PIT is fifth in average starting position), or just score on its own. Whether that's a sustainable formula for success is a fair question, especially with their one big-play threat, JuJu Smith-Schuster, struggling to get on the same page with Rudolph, but it's better than the alternative.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (out, concussion)

PIT injuries: RB Conner (out, shoulder), WR Smith-Schuster (questionable, foot), LG Ramon Foster (out, concussion)

LAR DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: Josh Reynolds (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS tournament plays: Steelers DST (second in takeaways)

Key stat: Both teams are top three in sack rate allowed by its offensive line (PIT first at 3.0 percent, LAR third at 3.7 percent) and top four in pressure rate by its defense (PIT second at 30.3 percent, LAR fourth at 28.1 percent)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Gurley picks up 80 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Robert Woods. Jaylen Samuels picks up 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Rudolph throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Vance McDonald. Steelers 23-20
 

Carolina (+5) at Green Bay, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

With Cam Newton now ruled out for the rest of the regular season, the Panthers' offense, and their playoff hopes, are officially in Kyle Allen's hands. ("That's a weird way to spell Christian McCaffrey!") The second-year QB had a solid bounceback last week after his disaster against the Niners, but Ron Rivera and the Carolina staff have made sure not to pile too much pressure on the kid, and the 261 yards and four TDs he tossed against the Cardinals in his first start remain Allen's high-water marks for the year. In fact, last week's 7.3 YPA was his second-best effort in that category. Expect the Panthers to keep riding CMac. As for the Packers... what the heck was that? All the air went out of their offense when the line couldn't keep the Chargers' pass rush out of Aaron Rodgers' face. They're still one game up on the Vikings in the NFC North, but with San Francisco looming after next week's bye, Green Bay's margin for error is thin. Davante Adams has had a week to shake off any rust and get back up to speed, and it's hard to imagine Rodgers producing two dud performances in a row, but the Panthers' pass rush could present as many problems as the Bolts' unit did.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: CB James Bradberry (questionable, groin)

GB injuries: S Adrian Amos (questionable, hamstring)

CAR DFS chalk: none

GB DFS chalk: Aaron Jones (CAR 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS tournament plays: Panthers DST (third in takeaways, second in sack percentage)

GB DFS tournament plays: Jamaal Williams (see Jones)

Key stat: GB is fourth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 67.7 percent (21-for-31) of RZ possessions; CAR is 32nd in red-zone defense at 69.2 percent (18-for-26)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 12 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

McCaffrey piles up 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Allen throws for 230 yards. Jones gains 70 combined yards and a touchdown, while Williams adds 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and scores to Jimmy Graham and Allen Lazard. Packers 24-16
 

Minnesota (+3) at Dallas, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Vikes saw their four-game winning streak fizzle out in Kansas City last week, as they couldn't quite take advantage of Patrick Mahomes' absence. Kirk Cousins did throw for three TDs, but his run of strong play came to an end, as there's no sugar-coating a 50 percent completion rate and 5.8 YPA. It must be frustrating for Mike Zimmer that he can't just give the rock to Dalvin Cook 50 times a game and be done with it, but it certainly looks like Minnesota will only go as far as Cousins can take them. Dallas, meanwhile, remains the most inconsistent division leader in the league. The offense has certainly taken care of business within the NFC East – the Cowboys smashed the Eagles and Giants over the last two weeks by a combined score of 74-28 – but the only non-division rival they've managed to score 30-plus against is the Dolphins, and that hardly counts. Their losing streak did coincide with injuries along their vaunted offensive line, although there's no excusing that loss to the Jets, and with the unit healthy again they can go back to, well, doing largely what the Vikings do – hammering the opposition with Ezekiel Elliott, and letting Dak Prescott pick his spots and dissect the defense.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: WR Adam Thielen (out, hamstring)

DAL injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, knee)

MIN DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DAL is first in third-down offense (50.0 percent ) and second in third-down defense (27.1 percent); MIN is 12th in both categories (42.5 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Cook pounds out 90 combined yards and a score. Cousins throws for 260 yards and a TD to Irv Smith Jr.. Elliott responds with 110 scrimmage yards. Prescott throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, finding Cooper, Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard. Cowboys 24-23 
 

L.A. Chargers at Oakland (+1), 49.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It feels like this happens every year, doesn't it? The Bolts get preseason buzz, have some absolutely atrocious games in the first half, get written off, then start putting everything together midseason and looking like the team people expected them to be back in August. Last week's dismantling of Aaron Rodgers and the Pack by the Chargers pass rush was an eye-opener, but the bigger takeaway might have been the performance of the offense under new OC Shane Steichen. He brought fancy, high-falutin' concepts like "running out of passing formations" to the scheme, and as a result Melvin Gordon finally looked like a guy who might deserve the kind of contract he's been asking for. The Raiders are coming off their own interesting win, and even if beating Matthew Stafford doesn't have the same kind of cache beating Rodgers does, it's a W all the same. Oakland's offense has quietly been firing on all cylinders lately, scoring at least 24 points in five straight games, and not against weak competition either — that run includes games against a Bears squad that sits sixth in points allowed per game, as well as the Pack (12th) and Texans (14th). Derek Carr is having the best season of his career, Josh Jacobs has galloped for 120-plus yards in three of the last four games, and young receivers like Hunter Renfrow are teasing joining Darren Waller in the breakout category. The secondary remains a dumpster fire, though, so there could be a lot more shootouts ahead. If Carr can stay on the right side of enough of them, the Raiders could find themselves in the playoff hunt in December.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RT Sam Tevi (questionable, knee), S Roderic Teamer (doubtful, groin)

OAK injuries: C Rodney Hudson (questionable, ankle), RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), LB Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension)

LAC DFS chalk: Philip Rivers (OAK 32nd in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Keenan Allen (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

OAK DFS chalk: Josh Jacobs (LAC 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAC DFS tournament plays: Mike Williams (OAK 28th in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA against deep throws)

OAK DFS tournament plays: Jalen Richard (see Jacobs)

Key stat: LAC 24th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 46.9 percent (15-for-32) of RZ possessions; OAK is 27th in red-zone defense at 63.0 percent (17-for-27)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 LAC, average score 23-19 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. LAC have won all four meetings since they left San Diego, the last three by at least 14 points.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Gordon gains 50 yards and a TD, but Austin Ekeler leads the LAC backfield with 80 combined yards. Rivers throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Allen and Williams. Jacobs piles up 110 combined yards and a score, while Richard adds 50 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Carr throws for a season-high 320 yards and two more TDs, hitting Waller and Renfrow. Raiders, 28-26

Last week's record: 8-6, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 83-51-1, 62-72-1 ATS, 65-65-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 719-435-5, 532-584-43 ATS, 431-454-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)