Back when I was middle-school aged, I'd always want to fast-forward past Tuesday through Friday in the fall, jumping right to the next batch of football games (while conveniently missing four days of school). Thursday Night Football arrived during high school, which helped, but still wasn't enough. Things were a little easier in college, if only because I was so busy working toward dual degrees in Zero RB Theory and Philosophy of Week 17 Optimization.
As someone who now works for a fantasy site (and does a lot of NFL recap content), I've done a full 180 in my mentality here. It now feels like there's not nearly enough time between NFL slates, with Wednesday afternoons marked by stray thoughts that I still haven't watched the second half of the Jags-Panthers game or devoted the proper amount of time to analyzing Jacksonville's backfield.
Travis Etienne probably should have made the cut when I discussed 10 Usage Trends From Week 1 that matter for Week 2 and beyond, but it's impossible to squeeze in everything when we're getting so much new information at the start of the season. As a rule, role (quantity) tends to be stickier / more predictive than performance (quality) — something that's also worth keeping in mind when doing matchup analyses like this one. There are obviously cases where strong play leads to more snaps, but we'll be wrong more often than not if we try to pick the extra week for a breakthrough (without relevant injuries at play).
A full, thorough accounting of what happened in Week 1 is probably the best thing we can do to prepare for Week 2, so long as we're putting more weight on usage/role than results. This article focuses on matchups, but I'll also try to highlight players that had encouraging Week 1 usage, if not production.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Trevor Lawrence (at CIN) — 10% started
Start Over — Caleb Williams (at DET), Jordan Love (vs. WAS), J.J. McCarthy (vs. ATL)
Lawrence made me look bad amid an otherwise stellar Week 1 for this article, missing open receivers early in the game and then attempting just 11 passes in the second half. On the bright side, Liam Coen's scheme looked good, creating ample running room for Travis Etienne and easy receptions for Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange. The Jags will need more from Lawrence and Brian Thomas this week, and I'm guessing they'll get it against a Bengals outfit that spent much of last season navigating shootouts. This is a good spot for Lawrence in terms of both volume and efficiency, playing as an underdog against a defense that remains one of the league's worst on paper.
- Other Good Matchups: Joe Burrow (vs. JAX); Justin Herbert (at LV); Kyler Murray (vs. CAR); Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE); Drake Maye (at MIA)
Running Backs 👍
Javonte Williams (vs. NYG) — 35% started
Start Over — J.K. Dobbins (at IND), David Montgomery (vs. CHI), D'Andre Swift (at DET)
The Giants seemingly have enough talent in their front seven to field a solid run defense, but it hasn't actually played out that way, as they allowed over 200 yards on the ground in Week 1 after finishing last season 27th in yardage (136.3 per game) and 26th in opponent YPC (4.6). Enter Williams, who scored two TDs last week at Philadelphia while handling 77% snap share, 65% route share and 75% of the Cowboys' RB opportunities (carries/targets). The role may not last all year, but it should at least carry over to Week 2 for the most part, and in a game where the Cowboys are favored by 4.5. Even without explosiveness as part of the package, Williams makes for a solid RB2 start this week.
Jordan Mason (vs. ATL) — 21% started
Start Over — Aaron Jones (vs. ATL), Tyrone Tracy (at DAL), Jaylen Warren (vs. SEA)
Mason entered the low-end RB2 conversation with a strong Week 1, taking 57 percent of snaps and 17 of Minnesota's 27 RB opportunities (59%) even though the game script seemingly favored Aaron Jones. While Mason won't add much through the air — he ran just four routes Monday night — he has a chance to do serious damage on the ground against a vulnerable Atlanta front seven. The Falcons held up fine against Bucky Irving this past Sunday, but their personnel up front remains among the worst in the league on paper. It's likely just a matter of time before someone runs wild on ATL.
- Other Good Matchups: Chase Brown (vs. JAX); Derrick Henry (vs. CLE); Kyren Williams (at TEN); Omarion Hampton (at LV); James Cook (at NYJ); James Conner (vs. CAR); Travis Etienne (at CIN); TreVeyon Henderson (at MIA); Brian Robinson (at NO)
Wide Receivers 👍
Marvin Harrison (vs. CAR) — 94% started
Start Over — Garrett Wilson (vs. BUF), Zay Flowers (vs. CLE),
A home game against Carolina equates to matchup upgrades across the board for Arizona, with a chance to keep all of the main guys happy and fed. After starting the year strong with 71 yards and a touchdown, Harrison figures to keep things rolling in another cupcake matchup. Expect deep shots to Harrison and at least one goal-line target for Trey McBride, plus a big week for James Conner amid talk of Trey Benson nipping at his heels.
Ricky Pearsall (at NO) — 46% started
Start Over — Jaylen Waddle (vs. NE), Calvin Ridley (vs. LAR), Jerry Jeudy (at BAL)
Losing Brock Prudy (toe/shoulder) for a week or three hurts Pearsall's projection, but we only need look back to last December to see that Mac Jones is capable of supporting fantasy production for pass catchers. Jacksonville's Brian Thomas actually fared much better with Jones than Trevor Lawrence, erupting for 593 yards and five TDs on 70 targets over the final six weeks of last season.
Pearsall is no Thomas, but Jones could hone in on his new wideout in a similar way now that the Niners are missing George Kittle (hamstring) — and potentially Jauan Jennings (shoulder) as well. Expect to see a whole lot of Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey against a New Orleans defense that lacks reliable complementary players alongside long-time standouts Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan.
Kayshon Boutte (at MIA) — 2% started
Start Over — Jayden Reed (vs. WAS), Josh Downs (vs. DEN), Joshua Palmer (at NYJ)
All of New England's pass catchers get a good matchup this weekend, facing a Miami cornerback group that was thinned out by offseason departures, then a trade, and now injuries. Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren took advantage with big Week 1 performances, rolling over the Dolphins for seven consecutive scoring drives to open the game. Meanwhile, Boutte was busy topping 100 yards in a loss to the Raiders, leading New England in route share (82 percent) and air yards (137) in the process.
He's probably not good enough to emerge as the clear top option ahead of Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry, but Boutte at least has the look of a solid starter, dating back to the end of last season when he put up 240 yards and two TDs over the final three weeks. The fun thing about this week's matchup is that he can keep the mirage going even if it ultimately turns out to be just that. Somebody from New England is going off this week, and Boutte's track record of deep/intermediate usage makes him the most likely to break through for a home run.
- Other Good Matchups: Marvin Harrison (vs. CAR); Davante Adams (vs. TEN); George Pickens (vs. NYG); Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle (vs. NE); Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen & Quentin Johnston (vs. LV); Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker & Dont'e Thornton (vs. LAC); Kayshon Boutte (at MIA); Wan'Dale Robinson (at DAL)
Could be a volume spike week for DeVonta Smith, facing KC's elite run defense with Goedert either out or playing through a knee sprain
— Jerry (@FootballMammal) September 11, 2025
Tight Ends 👍
Brenton Strange (at CIN) — 9% started
Start Over — Jonnu Smith (vs. SEA), Zach Ertz (at GB), Kyle Pitts (at MIN)
After allowing a league-high 16.6 PPR points per game to tight ends last season, the Bengals opened 2025 with a new defensive coordinator (Al Golden) yet gave up 10 catches to David Njoku and Harold Fannin in Week 1. The Jaguars won't run their passing game through tight ends the way Cleveland did, but there's still a nice opportunity for Strange to enjoy a spike game after his solid Week 1 with 79 percent snap share and 4-59-0 on four targets. While the efficiency will drop, his check-down volume could shoot up this week if the Jaguars-Bengals game turns into a pass-happy shootout.
- Other Good Matchups: Trey McBride (vs. CAR); Hunter Henry (at MIA); Theo Johnson (at DAL)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Patrick Mahomes (vs. PHI) — 86% started
Start Instead — Bo Nix (at IND), Kyler Murray (vs. CAR), Justin Herbert (at LV)
Mahomes is up against it right now, playing without his top two receivers while relying on 22-year-olds Josh Simmons and Kingsley Suamataia to protect his blindside. The two-time MVP is so good that it might not matter in certain matchups, but even Mahomes needs help when facing a defense like Philadelphia's. I expect the Chiefs' defense to put up a better fight than what we saw in February, but their undermanned offense just doesn't have the bodies right now to get revenge for Super Bowl disappointment. Mahomes is merely a back-end QB1 for Week 2, likely needing another rushing TD in order to do more than that for fantasy.
- Other Tough Matchups: Baker Mayfield (at HOU); Sam Darnold (at PIT); Michael Penix (at MIN); Daniel Jones (vs. DEN); Joe Flacco (at BAL)
Running Backs 👎
Kenneth Walker (at PIT) — 73% started
Start Instead — David Montgomery (vs. CHI), D'Andre Swift (at DET), J.K. Dobbins (at IND)
If the Week 1 timeshare with Zach Charbonnet didn't scare you, maybe a trip to Heinz Field will. Pittsburgh's secondary is already banged up, but the run defense should rebound from a shoddy Week 1 effort against New York, considering veteran standouts T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward, Patrick Queen and Keanu Benton all are healthy. The Steelers certainly spent enough on their front seven, and the results should be strong again after finishing 2025 in the Top 6 for both total rushing yards and YPC allowed. With Charbonnet now projected for around half of Seattle's backfield work, Walker is maybe 60/40 to reach double-digit PPR points, which makes him more of an RB3 or FLEX than the confident RB2 start he was drafted as.
Dylan Sampson (at BAL) — 7% started
Start Instead — Austin Ekeler (at GB), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at GB), Nick Chubb (vs. TB)
The projection here is somewhat dependent on Quinshon Judkins' availability, but there's a ton of downside risk even if Judkins doesn't play. Sampson made his Week 1 hay on eight targets, but he ran only 16 routes, eight fewer than Jerome Ford. The Browns wanted Sampson on the field when the ball was likely to go to the running back, but his role still wasn't as strong as the box score suggests, especially once we consider that four of the 10 touches he ceded to other RBs were inside Cincinnati's 5-yard line. The rookie will now face a better defense, on the road, as part of a committee backfield.
- Other Tough Matchups: RB Saquon Barkley (at KC); Nick Chubb (vs. TB); Isiah Pacheco (vs. PHI)
Wide Receivers 👎
Terry McLaurin (at GB) — 73% started
Start Instead — DeVonta Smith (at KC), Jakobi Meyers (vs. LAC), Deebo Samuel (at GB)
The Packers' cornerbacks are average, if that, but they've nonetheless been a tough matchup for WRs since last offseason when they hired DC Jeff Hafley, signed S Xavier McKinney and drafted LB Edgerrin Cooper and S Evan Williams. Only five teams allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers last season, and Green Bay's solid pass rush is now that much stronger with the addition of Micah Parsons, who book-ends Rashan Gary. On top of all that, Green Bay's offense under Matt LaFleur consistently ranks near the bottom of the league for pace, which negatively impacts play volume on both sides of a game. There were only 112 total plays in Green Bay's win over Detroit, 7.7 percent below the league average for Week 1 (121.4 plays).
Deebo Samuel's dominance of the Washington passing game won't hold up all season, but it might carry over from Week 1 to Week 2 against a zone-heavy Green Bay defense that allowed a league-low 12 completions of 20-plus air yards last season. Despite what happened Week 1, the Packers probably prefer allowing short passes to Samuel over longer ones to McLaurin.
Team play volume doesn't have much year-over-year correlation, but the slow pace / depressed volume in GB under LaFleur (especially for opponents) has been a constant.
Opponent play volume below league average in each of LaFleur's 6 years.
— Jerry (@FootballMammal) September 11, 2025
Hollywood Brown (vs. PHI) — 20% started
Start Instead — Keon Coleman (at NYJ), Chris Olave (vs. SF), Stefon Diggs (at MIA)
This might be the first and last time that I caution against starting a player who saw 16 targets the previous week. Philadelphia's excellent secondary and pass rush are a part of that equation, but I'd have some skepticism toward Brown even in a friendly matchup. The volume influx was an in-game adjustment to Xavier Worthy's early shoulder injury, thrusting Brown into a low-aDOT, slot-based role that was crucial to Kansas City's gameplan last week.
The problem there is that Brown lacks a physical element to his game and offers almost nothing after the catch, which showed up in his Week 1 stat line until a 49-yard catch toward the end of the game pushed his receiving line from 9-50-0 to a more respectable 10-99-0. For Week 2, we may see more of JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot and Brown on the perimeter, which is a better fit for Brown's talents but would eliminate a lot of last week's cheap PPR points. And, for what it's worth, I have some concern this game will look like the Super Bowl, as Kansas City's offense currently lacks punch and the Eagles are still fully loaded.
Editor's Note: Worthy is scheduled to practice Thursday.
Jalen Royals (knee) won't practice for the Chiefs today.
Everybody else, including Xavier Worthy, is scheduled to work in some capacity.
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) September 11, 2025
- Other Tough Matchups: Calvin Ridley & Elic Ayomanor (vs. LAR); Garrett Wilson (vs. BUF); Michael Pittman (vs. DEN); Mike Evans (at HOU); Cooper Kupp (at PIT)
Tight Ends 👎
Harold Fannin (at BAL) — 11% started
Start Instead — Tyler Warren (vs. DEN), Tucker Kraft (vs. WAS), Hunter Henry (at MIA)
I spent over half of my FAAB budget on Fannin in an NFFC league and chose him on waivers over the popular WR adds (Quentin Johnston, Kayshon Boutte, Calvin Austin) in a Yahoo league where I have Brock Bowers. In other words, I'm not trying to throw cold water on the fantasy argument for Fannin, in general. Given that we can't take unspent FAAB dollars or unused waiver priority to the grave with us, it's worth paying to find out what happens next when a guy who set the single-season FBS record for yards by a TE starts his NFL career with 72 percent snap share and a team-high nine targets.
That's enough to make Fannin startable in Week 2 for anyone who lost George Kittle (hamstring) or is otherwise in terrible shape at tight end, but there are a few reasons to be more cautious when comparing the rookie to solid alternatives. As poorly as Baltimore's defense played at Buffalo, it's still one of the more talented units in the league, notably covering the middle of the field with a quartet of first-round picks: LB Roquan Smith, S Kyle Hamilton, rookie S Malaki Starks and oversized slot corner Marlon Humphrey.
The Browns are by far the biggest underdogs (+11.5) of Week 2 and also have the lowest implied total (17), with bettors and analysts apparently not buying into the various swirling narratives about one of the biggest events in modern Mid-Atlantic history (Joe Flacco's homecoming game). Fannin should get his chances, but he won't sneak up on anyone this week and may be swimming upstream in an offense that can't move the ball. I'm treating him as a back-end TE1 or high-end TE2 for Week 2, with hopes for far more in the near future.
- Other Tough Matchups: Tyler Warren (vs. DEN); Kyle Pitts (at MIN); Cole Kmet & Colston Loveland (at DET)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Trevor Lawrence (at CIN)
RB Dylan Sampson (at BAL)
RB Trey Benson (vs. CAR)
WR Kayshon Boutte (at MIA)
WR Quentin Johnston (at LV)
WR Cedric Tillman (at BAL)
TE Harold Fannin (vs. BAL)
TE Juwan Johnson (vs. SF)
K Cam Little (at CIN)
D/ST 49ers (at NO)
D/ST Cardinals (vs. CAR)
Check out my Streaming Defenses article for the full D/ST scoop, w/ ranks for Week 1, Week 2 and Rest-of-Season.
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Geno Smith (vs. LAC)
RB Ollie Gordon (vs. NE)
RB Kareem Hunt (vs. PHI)
WR Joshua Palmer (at NYJ)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson (at DAL)
TE Chig Okonkwo (vs. LAR)
TE Brenton Strange (at CIN)
K Daniel Carlson (vs. LAC)
D/ST Cowboys (vs. NYG)
Wan'Dale Robinson week? Slot man Da'Ron Bland out for Dallas, after Cowboys ran zone on every single dropback Week 1.
Robinson had a laughable 0.9 yards per route against man last year, but was at least ok (1.5 YPRR) against zone.
— Jerry (@FootballMammal) September 11, 2025
For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)
QB Daniel Jones (vs. DEN)
QB Russell Wilson (at DAL)
RB Kenneth Gainwell (vs. SEA)
RB Justice Hill (vs. CLE)
WR Dont'e Thornton (vs. LAC)
WR Romeo Doubs (vs. WAS)
WR Elic Ayomanor (vs. LAR)
TE Dalton Schultz (vs. TB)
TE Theo Johnson (at DAL)
TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (at ARZ)
K Chad Ryland (vs. CAR)
D/ST Buccaneers (at HOU)