This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
This is the lowest I've had the top pitcher ranked on my top 400 heading into a season since I first started doing this in the 2015-16 offseason. That could be slightly due to the fact I really like the 14 position players I have ranked up top, but it has more to do with past experiences informing future decisions. If you recall in my top 10 pitching prospects of the decade piece, three of the top 10 were flat out busts, and roughly half were relative busts if you expand and include the five honorable mention arms I listed. If you compare that to the success rate of the top 10 hitting prospects of the decade, it's pretty clear that there's a lot more risk with the top arms. Everyone knows this, of course, but I feel like it is not properly reflected in rankings for fantasy. One could make a pretty good argument that no pitcher should ever be in the top 10, and I subscribe to that notion more now than I ever have before.
Here is a breakdown of where pitchers are ranked in my top 400:
| Range | Pitching Prospects |
| 1-50 | 12 (24%) |
| 1-100 | 31 (31%) |
| 1-200 | 65 (32.5%) |
| 1-400 | 133 (33.3%) |
TIER ONE
1. Forrest Whitley, Astros
2. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
3. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics
If someone said any of these three pitching prospects is the top pitching prospect in the game, I would not raise my hand to argue, so
This is the lowest I've had the top pitcher ranked on my top 400 heading into a season since I first started doing this in the 2015-16 offseason. That could be slightly due to the fact I really like the 14 position players I have ranked up top, but it has more to do with past experiences informing future decisions. If you recall in my top 10 pitching prospects of the decade piece, three of the top 10 were flat out busts, and roughly half were relative busts if you expand and include the five honorable mention arms I listed. If you compare that to the success rate of the top 10 hitting prospects of the decade, it's pretty clear that there's a lot more risk with the top arms. Everyone knows this, of course, but I feel like it is not properly reflected in rankings for fantasy. One could make a pretty good argument that no pitcher should ever be in the top 10, and I subscribe to that notion more now than I ever have before.
Here is a breakdown of where pitchers are ranked in my top 400:
| Range | Pitching Prospects |
| 1-50 | 12 (24%) |
| 1-100 | 31 (31%) |
| 1-200 | 65 (32.5%) |
| 1-400 | 133 (33.3%) |
TIER ONE
1. Forrest Whitley, Astros
2. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
3. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics
If someone said any of these three pitching prospects is the top pitching prospect in the game, I would not raise my hand to argue, so that felt like a good place to draw the line for Tier One. Among people who rank prospects, I've probably been driving the Whitley bandwagon the longest and I've been the most vocal about him becoming an ace, so please keep that in mind. I love all three of these guys -- I would probably have Luzardo ranked first if I didn't have concerns about his durability -- but I'm sure there are some who think I hate Gore just because I think he's only the second-best pitching prospect in the game.
TIER TWO
4. Matt Manning, Tigers
5. A.J. Puk, Athletics
6. Spencer Howard, Phillies
7. Dustin May, Dodgers
8. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
9. Casey Mize, Tigers
10. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays
I debated whether to break this into two tiers, drawing a line between Howard and May, but I think the larger group offers a better representation of the type of pitcher I wanted in this tier. Any of these seven could look like a future top-20 MLB starter by the end of this season and all seven will spend at least half the season in the big-league rotation if everything goes according to plan. May, Sachez and Mize project to be better real-world pitchers than fantasy pitchers, as they excel at generating weak contact. There's no sugarcoating the fact that Pearson's team context is pretty rough.
TIER THREE
11. Michael Kopech, White Sox
12. Brendan McKay, Rays
13. Luis Patino, Padres
14. Clarke Schmidt, Yankees
15. Mitch Keller, Pirates
16. Jose Urquidy, Astros
17. Brailyn Marquez, Cubs
18. Edward Cabrera, Marlins
19. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles
20. Josiah Gray, Dodgers
21. Simeon Woods Richardson, Blue Jays
22. Jordan Balazovic, Twins
23. George Kirby, Mariners
Some of these guys (Schmidt, Balazovic and Kirby specifically) get the "I just really believe in this guy" bump. If Kopech had Puk's 2019, and returned to meaningful game action, he would be in the next tier up, but I still want to see him make it all the way back without suffering a setback before giving him a clean bill of health.
TIER FOUR
24. DL Hall, Orioles
25. Nick Lodolo, Reds
26. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
27. Shane McClanahan, Rays
28. Luis Medina, Yankees
29. Kyle Wright, Braves
30. Daulton Jefferies, Athletics
31. Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals
32. Jackson Rutledge, Nationals
33. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays
34. Hunter Greene, Reds
35. Daniel Lynch, Royals
36. Shane Baz, Rays
Most of these guys are high-upside/higher-risk prospects. Wright, Jefferies and Liberatore are the exceptions, where the realistic ceiling might not be crazy high, but I still feel pretty good about their chances of being good starting pitchers.
TIER FIVE
37. Jackson Kowar, Royals
38. Logan Gilbert, Mariners
39. Ethan Hankins, Indians
40. Adam Kloffenstein, Blue Jays
41. Daniel Espino, Indians
42. Thad Ward, Red Sox
43. Ricky Vanasco, Rangers
44. Deivi Garcia, Yankees
45. James Karinchak, Indians
46. Brent Honeywell, Rays
47. Blake Walston, Diamondbacks
48. Joe Palumbo, Rangers
49. Braxton Garrett, Marlins
50. Ian Anderson, Braves
51. Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers
52. Patrick Sandoval, Angels
53. Luis Frias, Diamondbacks
54. Francisco Morales, Phillies
55. Emmanuel Clase, Indians
56. Quinn Priester, Pirates
57. Matthew Allan, Mets
A lot of the guys in this tier are either already relievers or are likely to end up in relief. Kloffenstein, Ward and Vansaco are my breakout picks. Kowar, Gilbert, Palumbo, Garrett and Gonsolin have pretty capped mid-rotation ceilings. This is also the tier for the top prep arms from the 2019 draft.
HONORABLE MENTION: Joe Ryan, Brusdar Graterol, James Kaprielian, Bryan Mata, Tyler Ivey, Jhoan Duran, Andry Lara, Luis Garcia, Brady Singer, Bryse Wilson, Bryan Abreu, Kris Bubic, Luis Gil, Justus Sheffield, Antoine Kelly, Ethan Small, Tahnaj Thomas, Ryan Weathers
