What an offseason! The Winter Meetings aren't over and several dominoes have already fallen. Trade winds are blowing, and the hot stove should stay lit for days and weeks to come.
One of the repercussions of the wave of transactions is a shake-up of my rankings. Not to mention, while taking part in four magazine mocks and a couple of best ball leagues, I've battle-tested my initial rankings and have made some adjustments. Before heading into the outfield, let's take a break and review the catcher and infield top 20s, comparing them to my updated rankings while highlighting the major differences.
CATCHER
Out of the Top 20
James McCann: The White Sox still have plans for McCann despite signing Yasmani Grandal, but he won't see full time at-bats. McCann will play some DH and could squat when Grandal plays DH as well. The issue is
What an offseason! The Winter Meetings aren't over and several dominoes have already fallen. Trade winds are blowing, and the hot stove should stay lit for days and weeks to come.
One of the repercussions of the wave of transactions is a shake-up of my rankings. Not to mention, while taking part in four magazine mocks and a couple of best ball leagues, I've battle-tested my initial rankings and have made some adjustments. Before heading into the outfield, let's take a break and review the catcher and infield top 20s, comparing them to my updated rankings while highlighting the major differences.
CATCHER
Out of the Top 20
James McCann: The White Sox still have plans for McCann despite signing Yasmani Grandal, but he won't see full time at-bats. McCann will play some DH and could squat when Grandal plays DH as well. The issue is McCann hit way over his skis last season and once the White Sox realize it, they'll use someone else at DH.
Robinson Chirinos: Chirinos is still unsigned. Let's see his venue and role when he finds a new home.
Into the Top 20
Sean Murphy: Murphy's original omission was an oversight on my part. He should see the majority of action for the Athletics. He's already a plus defender, quite agile for a guy with a 6-foot-3, 232 pound frame, plus he has a cannon. Oakland acquired Austin Allen, who can hit a little, but Murphy's defense should make him the bell cow.
Tom Murphy: After failing to impress with the Rockies, Murphy caught a heater down the stretch, in part paving the way for Seattle to deal Omar Narvaez to the Brewers. Murphy's slash should regress, but with likely full-time action ahead, he leaps into the top 20.
Big Risers
Yasmani Grandal: The original rankings were park neutral. While Guaranteed Rate Park isn't much different than Miller Park, they're both hitter-friendly venues. With the DH in the American League, Grandal should once again play as much as anyone, even more than J.T. Realmuto.
Omar Narvaez: The upgrade in parks from Safeco Field to Miller Park should soften the likely regression for Narvaez's power numbers.
Big Faller
Carson Kelly: Truth be told, Kelly was in line for a bump up as I softened the influence of his first two seasons with the Cardinals, but after the Diamondbacks brought in Stephen Vogt, Kelly's playing time was reduced. Vogt wasn't signed to sit.
FIRST BASE
The only change is Josh Bell and Danny Santana trading places, likely due to an adjustment to replacement level that increases the value of Santana's steals.
SECOND BASE
Out of the Top 20
Rougned Odor: In terms of expected earnings, Odor barely dropped out, but when someone joins the party, someone has to be voted off the island. I still like Odor as an upside middle infielder, so long as there's a backup plan. The guy can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases in his sleep; he just needs some batted ball luck.
Michael Chavis: As with Odor, Chavis' disappearance isn't a change in his own expectations, but someone has to go when others are upgraded. Once it's clear how the Red Sox plan to deploy Chavis, he could return to the top 20.
Into the Top 20
Brandon Lowe: There isn't a tougher team to gauge playing time for than the Rays. That said, some of it is due to their personnel; they haven't had every-day talent, so they mix and match to get the most out of their roster. Lowe looks like he could be an exception and stay in the lineup fairly regularly, so his playing time was adjusted.
Nick Madrigal: The release of Yolmer Sanchez greases the skids for Madrigal to make The Show. It's unclear if he needs to "work on his defense" for a few weeks in April, but Madrigal should be taking his place at the keystone before too long. His game is contact and speed without much pop. In 532 plate appearances spread over three levels last season (High-A/Double A/Triple-A), Madrigal whiffed just 16 times. Sixteen times. SIXTEEN! That's just goofy.
Big Riser
Jose Altuve: Altuve's climb to the top spot is more than just a product of Jonathan Villar relocating to Miami. I had his average too low. He's a hard guy to project, since he seems to get so much out hitting the ball without much authority. However, a closer look reveals Altuve can turn on a pitch and hit it hard, often into the Crawford boxes, while his plate coverage is such he dinks and dunks a lot of balls into the outfield. There's still risk in that profile, but I shortchanged Altuve the first time around.
Big Faller
Jonathan Villar: The park factor difference between Camden Yards to Marlins Park is a huge downgrade. Villar should still be productive, especially in the steals department, plus a potential power downgrade could be softened in Miami with the fences being moved in, but he's no longer the top-ranked second baseman. Grabbing eligibility at other spots, likely third base and outfield, will be a nifty in-season boost though.
THIRD BASE
The same 26 players encompass both lists.
Big Risers
Kris Bryant: Bryant is always a difficult projection, as his Statcast numbers don't support his outcomes, specifically average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. After reexamining his projection, I decided the regressions were too harsh so I softened them.
Yoan Moncada: My standard weighted average is 11:7:4 with 11 being the most recent season. Moncada looks like a different ballplayer and I didn't feel the changes were adequately captured by the projection engine, so I gave more weight to the 2019 season.
Eugenio Suarez: Average fly ball distance correlates well to homers. Suarez's average fly ball distance was out of whack with his 49 homers, so my engine regresses towards expected homers. The catch is Suarez plays in a homer-friendly park, which isn't completely accounted for in the regression translation. I overrode the regression and gave Suarez a couple more projected home runs.
J.D. Davis: Davis' underlying metrics are on a par with, if not better than, some of those ranked ahead of him. The conundrum is playing time, clouded by Davis' terrible defense at both third base and in left field. I awarded him more playing time, but there's a limit until the Mets clarify their plans, a picture further muddied by the possibility Yoenis Cespedes comes back at some point in 2020. Take this as you wish, but the last reports were encouraging,
Big Faller
Jon Berti: I'm genuinely disappointed the Marlins acquired Jonathan Villar as it appears I was given an "out" with respect to my initial rosy Berti projection. Part of my job is giving an honest appraisal of expected playing time, and when I first examined the Miami roster, I pegged Berti as one of their eight best position players and was therefore bullish. I saw several pathways to playing time after Starlin Castro was non-tendered. Brian Anderson's ability to play third base and outfield hurt Berti's chances a little, but there was still plausible routes to a regular job. It's not a perfect comp, but Berti translated to Whit Merrifield less 40 points in batting average. It wasn't long ago Merrifield was drafted in the second round. The delta in batting average ranked Berti lower, but the 30-plus steals with double-digit homers is extremely useful in today's game. After Villar and Jesus Aguilar were acquired, Michael Hill, the Marlins President of Baseball Operations, talked about the club's plans and Berti wasn't even mentioned. So no, I didn't drop Berti to save face, I did it because the playing time just isn't there anymore.
SHORTSTOP
Out of the Top 20
Dansby Swanson: For what it's worth, I'm not comfortable with knocking Swanson from the top 20. As discussed last week, part of that is the quality of the pool. Even so, I want to dig deeper to see if I'm shortchanging him. The reason he was lowered was, I took another look at the Braves' playing time and realized if everyone is healthy, Swanson will get less time at or near the top of the order than my original expectation. The decline in playing time flushed him from the updated rankings.
Into the Top 20
Nick Ahmed: Ahmed squeezed into the latest rankings, replacing Swanson. This is a perfect example why I want to review Swanson. Without studying the numbers, I'd prefer Swanson over Ahmed in a draft.
No one appreciably rose or fell, primarily because shortstop was the most recent list so I had already tweaked several projections prior to posting last week and none of the recent transactions changed things much.
This concludes the quick respite; we'll go back to fresh lists next week, looking at outfielders. As always, please feel free to post questions in the comments, pertaining to this piece or anything germane to fantasy baseball.
