Baseball Draft Kit: Uncovering Value Plays in the SP Market

Baseball Draft Kit: Uncovering Value Plays in the SP Market

This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.

In 2019 we saw more more dominance from Jacob deGrom, the breakup of baseball's top 1-2 punch in Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, and finally, the emergence of young starters such as Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty, all of whom look to be top-15 fantasy starters this year. In reading this website though, you're not looking for us to tell you who broke out last year, but more who will break out in 2020 and which players will outperform their March rankings. In this piece, I'll share what I do to put together my starting pitching list. I'll usually begin with RotoWire's rankings before putting my own spin on the list.

Here are five things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:

1ADVANCED METRICS
2YOUTH AND UPSIDE OVER SAFETY
3HOW GUYS FINISHED THE PREVIOUS YEAR
4PITCHERS RETURNING FROM INJURY
5FASTBALL VELOCITY

1 ADVANCED METRICS

Spin rate is an interesting metric, but I'm not entirely sold on its predictive value, though maybe I need to read up more on this one. Tyler Chatwood and Yimi Garcia ranked highly on the 2019 spin rate leaderboard, and I wouldn't touch either in fantasy. All else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. FIP is a

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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