Bernie on the Scene: NL East Analysis & Predictions

This week, I conclude my analysis of the National League standings with a look at the National League East. This is a very tough division to forecast, and any of four teams can win the crown.

This is a division where the top teams will beat up on each other with regularity. Fun to watch.
I have eliminated projecting team bench players.

Each player is followed by my grade and a comment.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

ATLANTA BRAVES
Estimated Payroll: $134M
My Estimated Win Total: 91

Lineup: Very Potent

Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF-BR-Grade A
An electric five-tool player and a fantasy stud

Ozzie Albies, 2B, BB, Grade B+
An outstanding fantasy option with 20-steal potential

Freddie Freeman, 1B, BL, Grade A
Does everything but steal bases. Huge fantasy presence

Marcell Ozuna, LF, BR, Grade B+
Could hit 35 homers and drive in more than 100 runs in this lineup

Travis d'Arnaud, C, BR, Grade B-
Among the best fantasy options at a weak position

Dansby Swanson, SS, BR, Grade C+
His bat continues to improve, but he's streaky

Austin Riley, 3B, BR, Grade C+
This could be a big home-run season for him

Cristian Pace, CF, BR, Grade C
I still don't see much offense yet from this 22-year-old

Rotation: Underrated

Max Fried, LHP, Grade B
I have always liked his stuff and mound presence, now he proves it

Charlie Morton, RHP, Grade B-
This veteran will deliver if he can stay healthy

Ian Anderson, RHP, Grade B
Big postseason showed the world how good he can be

Drew Smyly, LHP, Grade C-
I think he could hurt you in innings pitched in his age-32 season

Kyle Wright, RHP, Grade C
He or Smyly will be gone once Mike Soroka can join the rotation.

Closers: Acceptable

Will Smith,  LHP, Grade B-
I would not hesitate to draft him, but he may share save chances

Chris Martin, RHP, Grace C+
I see him getting his share of saves in a short committee

I don't think the Braves get enough love. This is an awesome offensive lineup, with Acuna, Albies, Freeman and Ozuna all being high-powered, game-changing hitters. d'Arnaud can add some punch.

I am looking for Austin Riley to show the type of power I think is in his bat. If he does what I think he can do, watch out for a huge amount of runs to be scored.

The rotation is very solid. If and when Mike Soroka returns to the rotation, the club will be that much better. This is an above average group of starters. Smyly is the weak link for me.

The closer role could be interesting, though I do like both Smith and Martin.

If things go as I think they CAN, the Braves will be very tough to beat. However, the division will beat up on each other, making every win precious.

Washington Nationals
Estimated Payroll: $200M
My Estimated Win Total:  90

Lineup: Scary good

Victor Robles, CF, BR, Grade B-
A speed threat with an improving bat at the top of the order

Juan Soto, RF, BL, Grade A
A monster of a hitter with tremendous power and hitting mechanics

Trea Turner, SS, BR, Grade A
Look for at least 35 steals, homers and a ton of runs to be scored

Josh Bell, 1B, BB, Grade B-
This upgrade at 1B with a get out of jail card from Pirates shines

Kyle Schwarber, BL, Grade B-
Great power addition will thrive, but beware of the strikeouts

Starlin Castro, BR, Grade C+
A nice player who fits well and could help the offense

Yan Gomes, C, Grade C
An average hitter, at best; Alex Avila will steal at-bats

Carter Kieboom, 3B, Grade C-
I've never been a fan and I'm still not.

Rotation: Steady and Dependable

Max Scherzer, RHP, Grade A
Remains one of the best in the game, even at age 36

Patrick Corbin, LHP, Grade B-
Looking for fast ball velocity to return and remain

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade B
As always, if he's healthy, he's a stud

Jon Lester, LHP, Grade C
Must return from recent surgery, but can still offer quality at times

Joe Ross, RHP, Grade C-
The weak link in the rotation and a guy that worries me plenty

Closer: I'm concerned

Brad Hand, Grade B-
Can be very hittable when he falls behind in counts, which he will

This is an awesome baseball team. They can hit with the best, and their first three starters could rule games, as long as they remain healthy and true to themselves. While healthy pitchers are a concern for every club, the Nationals injury history with their starters can be some reason for concern. If they can pitch, they can win.

For me, the Nationals lineup is very hard for any pitcher to navigate. Think of trying to get past Robles, Soto, Turner, Bell and Schwarber without getting torched. That's why I think the Nationals have one of the better fantasy lineups. They are similar in quality to the Braves.

So if they can hold their own against Atlanta, the Mets and the Phillies, they can pitch and hit their way to the top. But I can say that about four clubs.

NEW YORK METS
Estimated Payroll: $198M
My Estimated Win Total:  88

Lineup: Holes Exist

Brandon Nimmo, CF, BL, Grade C+
Could platoon with Kevin Pillar, hurting him

Francisco Lindor, SS, BB, Grade A
New team offers him new challenges

Michael Conforto, RF, BL, Grade B-
Nice variety of fantasy stats from solid hitter

Pete Alonso, 1B, BR, Grade B
Big time homers and RBIs with low batting average

Dominic Smith, LF, BL, Grade C+
Above average line-drive hitter in good spot

Jeff McNeil, 2B, BL, Grade C+
Versatile guy can play all over if needed

J.D. Davis, 3B, BR, Grade C
Not sold on him over a long season of at-bats

James McCann, C, Grade C
Could give you some home runs, but not much else

Rotation: Worrisome

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Grade A
Maybe the best in fantasy but a hard-luck history chasing wins

Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade C+
I'm not a fan. Inconsistent. I don't trust him

Taijuan Walker, RHP, Grade C
Injury worries over a long season

David Peterson, LHP, Grade C-
Place holder for Syndergaard or Carrasco

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, Grade C
Could stick if there is another injury

Closer

Edwin Diaz, B
Didn't he get lit up in his first Mets season in 2019?

The Mets got bad news when Carlos Carrasco went down this spring with a barking elbow. He's had it before and has recovered. BUT — my yellow caution light is out. I've seen it far too often from him. Couple that with Noah Syndergaard returning at some point from Tommy John, the Mets are very thin in starting pitching. When does Syndergaard get back? Will he be healthy? Effective?

The offense can't compete with either Atlanta or Washington, and it isn't even close.

I think the Mets missed a chance to buy another pitcher and another outfield bat with Steve Cohen's money. They'll regret it. In reality, their payroll is actually only $2M more than last year and they remain $12M under the tax threshold.

I find their pitching thin and their offense isn't that exciting.

So as this team is now designed, I think they will disappoint Mets fans. Again.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Estimated Payroll: $197M
My Estimated Win Total:   81

Lineup: Promising

Andrew McCutchen, LF, BR, Grade C
An aging skill set, I think he will slip badly this year

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, BR, Grade B-
Homers return, batting average is simply meh

Bryce Harper, RF, BL, Grade A-
I don't think he likes the attention young studs get

J.T. Realmuto, C, BR, Grade B
Returning from thumb surgery, did it hurt his mechanics?

Alec Bohm, 3B, BR, Grade B-
This guy is a terrific hitter and will continue to improve

Didi Gregorius, SS, BL, Grade C+
I've always been a Didi fan, and he has something to prove

Jean Segura, 2B, BR, Grade C+
Still can run some, but not the player he was in the past

Scott Kingery, CF, BR, Grace C
Continues to disappoint, but fantasy versatility helps

Rotation: Average, at best

Aaron Nola, RHP, Grade A-
Provides everything a fantasy owner wants in a starter

Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B
Solid option behind Nola, has good control and command

Zach Eflin, RHP, Grade C
I remember when he was a first-round MLB pick, but I have doubts

Vince Velasquez, RHP, Grade C
Has looked good this spring, but inconsistent

Matt Moore, LHP, Grade C+
I like what I've seen so far and I think he'll surprise

Closers: Committee time

Hector Neris, RHP, Grade C+
On my team, he's the guy without a doubt

Archie Bradley, RHP, Grade C-
He always tempts managers and lets them down quickly

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Grade C
I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the role at times

Bryce Harper making almost $28M a year, and until the United States walks on Mars is the reason the Phillies payroll sits where it does.

Harper wants to be in the conversation with Acuna, Soto, Betts, Tatis Jr. and Trout. I think it bugs him they get more attention. So I'm looking for him to break his bat in two hunting home runs every time he comes to the plate. He's still very good.

The rest of the Phillies lineup is woefully inconsistent. They have something to prove, but they don't have the firepower or ability of either the Nationals or Braves. They may, however, be the equal of the Mets, if not better.

I depart the Phillies train at the rotation. I think they are woefully weak for a team that wants to win the East. Beyond Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, I see mediocrity staring me in the face. That isn't enough to best either of the the top two teams.

The lack of starting pitching depth and a bullpen that I don't acutally trust over a full season leaves me to conclude that I am not very excited about this 2021 edition of Philadelphia. I also don't think Dave Dombrowski is the right guy to turn things around.

MIAMI MARLINS
Estimated Payroll: $62M
My Estimated Win Total:   70

Lineup: Weak

Starling Marte, CF, BR, Grade B-
Bright spot with above average speed and basic hitting tools

Corey Dickerson, LF, BL, Grade C
Could platoon with any one of a number of outfielders

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, BR, Grade C
An average hitter with some pop in his bat

Adam Duvall, RF, BR, Grade C
No question about his power, but that's his only calling card

Brian Anderson, 3B, BL, Grade C
Can get you some home runs, but not a game-changer

Miguel Rojas, SS, BR,  Grace C+
A steady producer capable of providing plus results

Isan Diaz, 2B, BL,  Grade C
Watch out for a platoon here with Jon Berti

Jorge Alfaro, C, BR, Grade C
Has not produced the offense as once projected for him

Rotation: A true strength

Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Grade B-
On his way to improvement and reliability at age 25

Pablo Lopez, RHP, Grade B-
Could be a real find and offer fantasy value as a starter

Elieser Hernandez,  RHP, Grade C-
Watch out for high ERA and WHIP, but promising

Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-
Still learning his craft at age 22, has what it takes

Trevor Rogers, LHP, Grade C
Young and capable, but other prospects are waiting

Closer: Unsettled for me

Anthony Bass, RHP, Grade C
Free agent sign from the Blue Jays could win the job

Yimi Garcia, RHP, Grade C
Could easily get his share of save opportunities

The Marlins future is much brighter than their present roster. With prospects pitchers such as Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and more still in development, the future is bright.

Offensively, the club will improve once first baseman Lewin Diaz, shortstops Jazz Chisholm and Jose Devers and some of the outfielders mature enough to break into the lineup.

The Marlins have drafted pitching and more pitching. But the current staff is pretty solid, with reinforcements a phone call away.

Sadly, this Marlins team will yield victories to every team I noted above, leaving them little chance to eek out enough wins to be relevant. They will play hard and try their best as an organization on the move. But they just can't compete in 2021 for anything other than a high draft slot.

HEADING HOME

For the first time in a year, I returned to major league press boxes. It was such a relief and so much fun to be back in the box watching live action.

I've been impressed with several players I have seen. Next week in this space I will share those names with you.

I'm sure you have read all about the new rules being tried out in minor league baseball. Believe me when I say we are heading for robo-umpires. 

Have a great week. Stay safe and healthy.

You can follow me on twitter @BerniePleskoff and read my work at Forbes.com