Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL East

We're closing in on Opening Day, and the excitement is building. Things will surely change as Spring Training progresses, but we handle those changes on the fly. This is the fifth of six columns briefly reviewing the pitching staffs of all 30 teams. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Many of the team pitching staff evaluations will focus on the "haves" and "have nots" of MLB. No teams ever really has enough pitching, but the Braves do appear to fall on the positive side of the ledger. Mike Soroka's health has been of some concern following his surgery for a torn Achilles that cost him most of 2020, but everything seems to be going well. He may be eased back into a full workload, but he should be a solid fantasy asset. It's no secret I am a big Soroka fan, and the optimist in me actually expects even better days ahead. The Braves staff is very good, but very young, so adding Charlie Morton should be a big boost, and they'll benefit from the veteran presence of the newly acquired proven hurler who seems to get better as he gets older. Next in line is lefty, Max Fried. He enjoyed a stellar 2019 and 2020, but I still see some things that concern me a bit going forward, so he might come at a higher price than I would be comfortable paying. I would actually prefer Ian Anderson who enjoyed a very strong breakout in the shortened 2020 season. There is still upside to look forward to. The fifth starter slot will be manned by another veteran newcomer, Drew Smyly, who missed 2017 and 2018, and was generally ineffective in 2019 before bouncing back last year. He looked good, but I'm not completely sold. The Braves still have a pretty deep pool of young arms, and a couple, like Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson are getting close to contributing in a year that will likely require depth in the rotation.

Taking a quick look at the bullpen, Mark Melancon stabilized a bullpen that was in serious distress prior to his arrival, but he is gone now via free agency. That probably leaves the ninth inning to lefty Will Smith, who I think can be a competent closer. However, I would keep an eye on both Chris Martin and, to a lesser extent, A.J. Minter, who could serve as solid set-up guys, and potentially step in if Smith falters. I like Martin as a possible sleeper for saves.

Recapping the Braves:

The arm to roster: Mike Soroka might be a bargain due to his injury recovery timeline.

He'll likely be overpriced: Max Fried just hasn't convinced me, at least not yet.

Best of the bullpen: Will Smith, but keep an eye on Chris Martin.

Miami Marlins – The Marlins are very young and appear to be progressing in an organization that is making a name for itself by developing young arms. I suppose Sandy Alcantara, who came over in the Marcell Ozuna deal a couple years ago, would be considered their No. 1, and his results have improved with his improving command. However, Sixto Sanchez was the headliner in the trade that sent star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, and his is the highest ceiling. Like Alcantara, he still needs to refine his command, but he is nearly ready to be a genuine ace, and his massive upside makes him very appealing. I'm not a big fan of Pablo Lopez, although he looks fairly competent at times. He hasn't displayed much consistency. In my opinion, both Trevor Rogers and Elieser Hernandez might prove to be better than Lopez in the long run, but the Marlins like keeping their options open with Rogers who can both start and pitch in long relief, which hurts his fantasy value. There are a few quality young arms in the system like 2020 first-round pick Max Meyer, the promising Edward Cabrera and maybe Braxton Garrett, but I am not sure any of them are legitimately ready for the show just yet.

The Marlins bullpen is clearly not a strength of the team. At this writing, I count four, maybe more, candidates for saves. At the top of my list is Dylan Floro. He has zero saves in five major league seasons, has good but not great stuff, and has a lower strikeout rate. Other than that, he's perfect. Actually Anthony Bass might be the most likely candidate to pitch the ninth on days when the Fish can carry a lead into the last frame, but he's much better suited to a set-up role. Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber and lefty Richard Bleier could all get into the mix, but none of them are very good options.

Recapping the Marlins:

The arm to roster: Sixto Sanchez has huge upside but he is learning on the job.

He'll likely be overpriced: Pablo Lopez seems to be at least a bit overvalued.

Best of the bullpen: I like Dylan Floro the best in an undermanned bullpen.

New York Mets – The NL East is a division deep in quality starting pitching, and the Mets, loaded with talent, are certainly a part of that equation. The Mets are led by Jacob deGrom, he is the ace of the staff and he'll be one of the first pitchers off the board in fantasy drafts. Next up is Marcus Stroman. A groundball machine, he looks like a great fit for the Mets, especially with the addition of Francisco Lindor. His glove will be a huge boost to all Mets pitchers. They also added Carlos Carrasco in that deal. He is a solid starter when healthy but he has had trouble staying on the mound. Like Carrasco, Taijuan Walker is more than competent, but injuries have kept him from reaching his ceiling, too. I just have a hunch this might be his year. To begin the season, it looks like a pair of adequate southpaws, Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson, could share the five spot, so the rotation is both capable and deep when everyone is healthy. Let's see, have I forgotten anyone? Oh yeah, DeGrom could eventually share the top spot in the rotation with a guy named Noah Syndergaard. It just won't be this season. Thor is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and won't be back until June or July. It will probably take the rest of the year for him to get back to something resembling full strength.

The past two seasons have been strewn with some implosions, and Edwin Diaz was often a part of it. I watched him many times, and the stuff was there, but the results didn't always follow. I just have to believe Diaz will rise above it all, and I think this could be the year. There is incredible depth here, too. They have added Trevor May who is a very accomplished set-up guy. Jeurys Familia has proven in the past that he can be a reliable closer (he lead the league with 51 saves in 2016), but he'll share the set-up innings with May, Dellin Betances (if healthy, and I'm concerned he has a very long way to go), Seth Lugo (they really need to keep him out of the rotation), Miguel Castro and lefty Aaron Loup. That spells depth if all the pieces fall into place.

Recapping the Mets:

The arm to roster: I find myself anticipating a big year from Marcus Stroman.

He'll likely be overpriced: I wish Carlos Carrasco could stay out of the trainer's room.

Best of the bullpen: Edwin Diaz returns to the performance he displayed in Seattle.

Philadelphia Phillies – Like most teams, the Phillies' rotation presents an intriguing scenario. The staff has some upside but it's not very deep, which could present challenges in this rough division. They have a genuine ace. Aaron Nola has been a favorite of mine since his college days. He is an exceptionally talented workhorse who thrives on competition, and those guys are always very appealing. He fits nicely at the top of pretty much any fantasy rotation. After years of frustrating injuries that always interrupted his progress, Zack Wheeler has now taken a regular turn every five days over the past three years. He's pitched well since putting the injuries behind him, and there's really no reason to think he won't again competently man the two spot in their rotation. Now the question marks arise. The lackluster group following the top two includes Zach Eflin (pedestrian stuff) who is likely penciled into the three slot, followed by Chase Anderson and perhaps Spencer Howard, who has some upside but might be better in the bullpen while he refines his skills. Both are No. 5 starters in MLB at best right now and unlikely to warrant a spot on any but the deepest fantasy rosters. That leaves us shopping for someone capable of stepping in as a legitimate No. 3, and there might just be a good candidate. A long time ago, Matt Moore was very high on my kids list, and his first couple years with Tampa Bay looked quite promising. Then, a long string of injuries impacted his command and overall stuff to the point it looked like his future was pretty dim. Then, he spent most of a season in Japan with the Softbank Hawks, and the Phillies saw enough to give him a major league contract. I've seen him once this spring, and let's say, I'm interested.

In 2020, the Phillies gave a whole new meaning to the term ugly. They compiled an almost unbelievable 7.06 ERA, and, if I'm not mistaken, they blew more saves than they actually converted. Not surprisingly, a complete overhaul was in order. They brought in Archie Bradley, and he should be the favorite to close. He would replace Hector Neris, who isn't bad until he pitches in the ninth. They also secured the services of veteran set-up men Jose Alvarado and Tony Watson. They also added Brandon Kintzler and Sam Coonrod to go with swingman Vince Velasquez, giving the pen a whole new look.

Recapping the Phillies:

The arm to roster: Aaron Nola, but I might be ready to take a flyer on Matt Moore.

He'll likely be overpriced: Zach Eflin often outpitches his overall stuff. Be careful.

Best of the bullpen: Archie Bradley is the best of a rebuilt bullpen.

Washington Nationals – Do you need more proof that 2020 was one of "those" years? Try these on. Max Scherzer allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time since 2011. Stephen Strasburg pitched just five innings, posting a 10.80 ERA. And, Patrick Corbin chipped in with a career-worst 1.57 WHIP. If I had told you those three things would happen, or the sun will rise in the West, it will snow in Tucson in August, and they will prove that the moon is made of Swiss cheese, you would have to think about which was more likely. Looking at Scherzer (81.5 exit velocity but a .380 BABIP) and Corbin (84.9 exit velocity but a .375 BABIP) things just don't add up. I'm ready to give all three pitchers a mulligan. On draft day, I would say, go for it. I'd love to own at least one. That trio could be the best top three in a division loaded with excellent pitching. True, I would have liked to see additions to improve team defense (it didn't happen, and may have actually gotten a bit worse) but these guys, assuming Strasburg can get and stay healthy, should miss enough bats to overcome that. Unfortunately, they'll be followed by some less spectacular arms. Jon Lester comes over from the Cubs, but he has slipped the past couple seasons and probably only fits now as an average No. 4. The favorite to claim the fifth spot is Joe Ross. He struggled in 2019, his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and opted out in 2020, so he is something of a wild card. However, the team lacks starting depth with Austin Voth and perhaps Erick Fedde, who could serve as a swingman, the only real options.

The Nats bullpen was a mess most of last season, too. They needed a boost, and they signed Brad Hand to provide that lift. His signing creates a positive domino effect. Hand will take the ninth most days, but if he needs a day off, the Nats have a very good alternative in Daniel Hudson, but his primary role will be setting up, which is where he fits best. The pen is still a little shallow, but they have another experienced set-up man in Will Harris, and I was pretty impressed with both Tanner Rainey and Kyle Finnegan who will attempt to bridge the gap to the ninth inning.

Recapping the Nationals:

The arm to own: Patrick Corbin might come at a discount, and I'm buying.

He'll likely be overpriced: I think Jon Lester is slipping a bit as he gets older.

Best of the bullpen: Brad Hand should help the pen significantly.

Next week we'll wrap up our preview with a look at the AL.