Dynasty Watch: Dynasty Football Trade Chart

This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.

How To Value Premium Players In Dynasty

One of the most common dynasty fantasy football related questions we field at RotoWire is "What can I get for player X in a trade?" This is going to vary from league to league, situation to situation. Before we dive into player liquidity and trade values it is important to examine why dynasty players want to trade premium assets.

We usually respond to the above question by asking; "why do you want to trade that player?" Dynasty managers do not believe they can compete for a championship in the current year. They do not want the player they are trying to trade to leak value due to age. This is a common hole in dynasty player's games. An anecdotal example is one of our long-time subscribers recently traded Dak Prescott in a superflex league with Dalvin Cook and Mike Evans. When asked why, he said his roster was not ready to compete. This dynasty player just traded three top-50 players! He was more likely to compete by acquiring more assets, than selling off veterans for picks. 

We get it. "Rebuilding" by collecting rookie picks is fun. But it remains a suboptimal means to the ultimate goal ... winning a championship.

The Age Apex

We don't mean to pick on this person, since this is a common mindset for dynasty players. Dynasty is better thought of in 2-3-year windows rather than a five-year timeframe. Think about how bad we are as an industry predicting exactly what will happen in the upcoming season? Imagine thinking we can predict what will happen two or four seasons from now with accuracy? 

Circling back to the core question, what can you get for player X?" Usually, dynasty players are looking to cash out on top-12 RBs who are at least 27 years old or WRs who are 28 years old. That is the age apex where the market value starts to decrease. 

Dynasty vs. Redraft ADP

Players like Dalvin Cook and Mike Evans are the best examples. Their redraft ADP, the actual value in the current league year, is dramatically different than their dynasty startup draft ADP or market value. Dalvin Cook is RB4 in current 2022 drafts. A locked-in first-round pick. In dynasty, his ADP is around RB10. Six spots may not seem like a lot, but at the top of the rankings that could mean a two-round difference in cost. Mike Evans has an even bigger chasm in value. His redraft ADP is WR9. His dynasty startup value is around WR25. Simply stated, both of these players are undervalued by the dynasty market ... by a lot. The fear of a player aging out on your roster is a powerful market driver, in which you can gain an edge. 

Dynasty players are too quick to pivot off true difference makers. There is an edge to acquiring assets like this in the offseason. If you are a team that does want to trade these highly productive players with lower than expected market value, it is best to wait until they have a big game in the coming season. From May through August, dynasty players value rookies and the unknown more. In-season sobriety reigns supreme, and the all-time producers recuperate their proper market value.

Dynasty Trade Chart

Below is a chart that includes the top-60 players by average draft position. The chart gives you examples of actual trades that have been executed in real leagues. You can use this chart as a guide. For example, we have Alvin Kamara getting traded for Antonio Gibson plus a 2023 first-round pick. You don't have to include Gibson in that trade. You can find a player you value similar to get the trade done. Most of you will get better deals executed than the guide illustrates. Use the chart purely as a guide, not as a "bible." We have also included 32 QBs in a superflex (start two QBs) context.

Comment below on any trades you have made or want to discuss. You should also use the comment section to inquire about any players you are thinking about trading even if not on the chart. Good luck in the trade market. It's tough out there. 

Video Podcast: How To Win Trades, Advice and Tactics

Top-60 Players (Single-QB League)

Top-32 QBs in Superflex Leagues