Dynasty Watch: Dynasty Football Trade Chart

Dynasty Watch: Dynasty Football Trade Chart

This article is part of our Dynasty Watch series.

How To Value Premium Players In Dynasty

One of the most common dynasty fantasy football related questions we field at RotoWire is "What can I get for player X in a trade?" This is going to vary from league to league, situation to situation. Before we dive into player liquidity and trade values it is important to examine why dynasty players want to trade premium assets.

We usually respond to the above question by asking; "why do you want to trade that player?" Dynasty managers do not believe they can compete for a championship in the current year. They do not want the player they are trying to trade to leak value due to age. This is a common hole in dynasty player's games. An anecdotal example is one of our long-time subscribers recently traded Dak Prescott in a superflex league with Dalvin Cook and Mike Evans. When asked why, he said his roster was not ready to compete. This dynasty player just traded three top-50 players! He was more likely to compete by acquiring more assets, than selling off veterans for picks. 

We get it. "Rebuilding" by collecting rookie picks is fun. But it remains a suboptimal means to the ultimate goal ... winning a championship.

The Age Apex

We don't mean to pick on this person, since this is a common mindset for dynasty players. Dynasty is better thought of in 2-3-year windows rather than a five-year timeframe. Think about how bad we are as an industry predicting exactly what will happen in the upcoming season? Imagine thinking we can predict what will happen two or four seasons from now with accuracy? 

Circling back to the core question, what can you get for player X?" Usually, dynasty players are looking to cash out on top-12 RBs who are at least 27 years old or WRs who are 28 years old. That is the age apex where the market value starts to decrease. 

Dynasty vs. Redraft ADP

Players like Dalvin Cook and Mike Evans are the best examples. Their redraft ADP, the actual value in the current league year, is dramatically different than their dynasty startup draft ADP or market value. Dalvin Cook is RB4 in current 2022 drafts. A locked-in first-round pick. In dynasty, his ADP is around RB10. Six spots may not seem like a lot, but at the top of the rankings that could mean a two-round difference in cost. Mike Evans has an even bigger chasm in value. His redraft ADP is WR9. His dynasty startup value is around WR25. Simply stated, both of these players are undervalued by the dynasty market ... by a lot. The fear of a player aging out on your roster is a powerful market driver, in which you can gain an edge. 

Dynasty players are too quick to pivot off true difference makers. There is an edge to acquiring assets like this in the offseason. If you are a team that does want to trade these highly productive players with lower than expected market value, it is best to wait until they have a big game in the coming season. From May through August, dynasty players value rookies and the unknown more. In-season sobriety reigns supreme, and the all-time producers recuperate their proper market value.

Dynasty Trade Chart

Below is a chart that includes the top-60 players by average draft position. The chart gives you examples of actual trades that have been executed in real leagues. You can use this chart as a guide. For example, we have Alvin Kamara getting traded for Antonio Gibson plus a 2023 first-round pick. You don't have to include Gibson in that trade. You can find a player you value similar to get the trade done. Most of you will get better deals executed than the guide illustrates. Use the chart purely as a guide, not as a "bible." We have also included 32 QBs in a superflex (start two QBs) context.

Comment below on any trades you have made or want to discuss. You should also use the comment section to inquire about any players you are thinking about trading even if not on the chart. Good luck in the trade market. It's tough out there. 

Video Podcast: How To Win Trades, Advice and Tactics

Top-60 Players (Single-QB League)

ADP

Pos Rank

Name

Team

Expected Market Return
1

RB1

Jonathan Taylor

INDDalvin Cook Plus 2 x 1s
2

WR1

Ja'Marr Chase

CINA.J. Brown + High First
3

WR2

Justin Jefferson

MINCooper Kupp + 1st + 2nd
4

RB2

Najee Harris

PIT1 x '23 first + Austin Ekeler
5

RB3

Christian McCaffrey

CAR2022 1.01 or Breece Hall
6

WR3

Cooper Kupp

LARAmon-Ra St. Brown, Juju + '22 First
7

RB4

Javonte Williams

DENDerrick Henry + 2023 First
8

RB5

D'Andre Swift

DETDalvin Cook + Joe Mixon (Give Away a 2nd)
9

RB6

Austin Ekeler

LACCam Akers + 2023 First
10

RB9

Dalvin Cook

MINTee Higgins + 2023 First
11

RB10

Derrick Henry

TENJavonte Williams (Give Away a '22 First)
12

WR4

CeeDee Lamb

DALDrake London, Chris Olave + 2nd
13

RB8

Joe Mixon

CINMichael Pittman
14

TE1

Kyle Pitts

ATLT.J. Hockenson + 1st + QB Upgrade
15

WR7

Davante Adams

LVJaylen Waddle
16

QB1

Josh Allen

BUFDak Prescott + 2 Firsts
17

WR6

Deebo Samuel

SFTravis Kelce + 2nd or Terry McLaurin + 2nd
18

RB7

Breece Hall

NYJLeonard Fournette + Barkley + 2nd
19

RB11

Alvin Kamara

NOAntonio Gibson + '23 First
20

WR5

A.J. Brown

PHIAdd a '22 1st to AJB to get Ja'Marr Chase
21

RB12

Nick Chubb

CLEStefon Diggs + Michael Carter
22

WR9

Stefon Diggs

BUFAdd a first to SD to get Top 5 WR
23

QB2

Patrick Mahomes

KCTop 7 RB, Top 15 WR, Upgrade TE
24

WR10

Tyreek Hill

MIAGarrett Wilson + '23 First
25

TE2

Mark Andrews

BALDo not trade
26

QB3

Justin Herbert

LACDerek Carr plus a '23 first
27

WR8

Jaylen Waddle

MIAAdd a pick to get Top 5 WR
28

WR11

DK Metcalf

SEAMid '22 first + '23 2nd
29

RB15

Cam Akers

LARJames Cook+ 2nd
30

TE3

Travis Kelce

KCDalton Schultz + '22 First
31

RB13

Saquon Barkley

NYG2 x '22 Firsts
32

WR12

Tee Higgins

CINHold
33

QB4

Joe Burrow

CIN1.07 in 2022
34

RB14

Antonio Gibson

WASAdd a pick to upgrade
35

WR14

Diontae Johnson

PITTerry McLaurin + mid '22 first
36

RB17

J.K. Dobbins

BALDrake London
37

TE4

George Kittle

SFAdd a '23 first to get Kyle Pitts
38

RB20

Aaron Jones

GBElijah Mitchell + Kareem Hunt
39

RB19

David Montgomery

CHIMiles Sanders plus a mid '22 first
40

RB16

Kenneth Walker

SEADJ Moore
41

WR13

Drake London

ATLMike Evans
42

WR18

Terry McLaurin

WAS22 1st + '23 2nd
43

QB6

Lamar Jackson

BALKenny Pickett + '23 First + '23 2nd
44

RB18

Travis Etienne

JAXSaquon Barkley + 2nd
45

QB5

Kyler Murray

ARIAdd Pick to get Top 3 QB
46

WR15

DJ Moore

CARTop 3 '22 Rookie Pick
47

TE5

Darren Waller

LV2022 1st
48

WR17

Michael Pittman

INDBuilding Block
49

RB22

Leonard Fournette

TBLate 2022 First + 3rd
50

WR22

Mike Evans

TBDrake London+Jameson Williams
51

WR16

Treylon Burks

TENTerry McLaurin
52

RB23

Ezekiel Elliott

DAL2 x 2nds or 1 x 1st
53

RB21

Josh Jacobs

LVMid 22 1st
54

WR25

Keenan Allen

LACMid '22 first + 2nd
55

WR19

Garrett Wilson

NYJAllen Robinson + Michael Thomas
56

TE6

T.J. Hockenson

DETAdd Pick to get Mark Andrews
57

WR20

Chris Godwin

TBJameson Williams + Courtland Sutton
58

RB25

James Conner

ARI2023 2nd
59

WR21

Jerry Jeudy

DEN22 1st + '23 2nd
60

WR30

Amari Cooper

CLELate '22 First + Hunter Renfrow

Top-32 QBs in Superflex Leagues

 ADP

Pos Rank

Player Name

Team

Expected Market Return

1

QB1

Josh Allen

BUF

4 x 1sts plus upside QB

2

QB2

Patrick Mahomes

KC

3 x 1sts plus a Top 15 QB

3

QB3

Justin Herbert

LAC

Top 12 QB + 3 x Firsts

4

QB4

Joe Burrow

CIN

Trey Lance + Matthew Stafford

5

QB5

Kyler Murray

ARI

Trevor Lawrence + '23 1st

6

QB6

Lamar Jackson

BAL

Justin Fields + 1st + 2nd

7

QB7

Dak Prescott

DAL

Mac Jones + Top 10 RB

8

QB8

Deshaun Watson

CLE

Add Pick to Aaron Rodgers to get DW

9

QB9

Russell Wilson

DEN

Tua + 1st + Top 25 Player

10

QB10

Jalen Hurts

PHI

2 x '23 1sts

11

QB11

Trey Lance

SF

CeeDee Lamb + Davis Mills

12

QB12

Matthew Stafford

LAR

Mac Jones + Jerry Jeudy

13

QB13

Trevor Lawrence

JAX

Aaron Rodgers+ Gabriel Davis + 2nd

14

QB14

Justin Fields

CHI

Kenny Pickett + 2nd

15

QB15

Aaron Rodgers

GB

Top 3 pick in 2023

16

QB16

Derek Carr

LV

Add 2023 1st for Watson

17

QB17

Tua Tagovailoa

MIA

Kenny Pickett + Top 25 WR

18

QB18

Mac Jones

NE

Nick Chubb or Antonio Gibson

19

QB19

Zach Wilson

NYJ

2 x 1sts + 2nd

20

QB20

Kenny Pickett

PIT

Jerry Jeudy + Ryan Tannehill

21

QB21

Kirk Cousins

MIN

Top 15 RB + Kenny Pickett

22

QB22

Tom Brady

TB

Leonard Fournette + Dallas Goedert + 2nd

23

QB23

Ryan Tannehill

TEN

Davis Mills + '22 2nd

24

QB24

Davis Mills

HOU

Desmond Ridder + Marcus Mariota

25

QB25

Jameis Winston

NO

Josh Jacobs

26

QB26

Malik Willis

TEN

'22 2nd

27

QB27

Matt Ryan

IND

Late '22 1st

28

QB28

Desmond Ridder

ATL

'22 2nd

29

QB29

Carson Wentz

WAS

'23 2nd

30

QB30

Daniel Jones

NYG

2 x '22 2nd

31

QB31

Matt Corral

CAR

'22 2nd

32

QB32

Jared Goff

DET

'22 2nd

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alan Seslowsky
Alan's passion for fantasy sports, depth of player analysis, and curiosity about the details are the pillars of his broadcasting style. He is a three time champion of the NFFC's "Beat Chris Liss" high stakes contest. In addition to RotoWire, Alan has contributed analysis and commentary for DFS Army, Dynasty Depot and RosterWatch.
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