Ranking The Rookies: 2021 Tiers Vol. 2.0

Ranking The Rookies: 2021 Tiers Vol. 2.0

The top-400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2021. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect in whom you are investing.

Sorry for the delay on Vol. 2.0, I had to finish the divisional prospect articles first. Since Vol. 1.0, there has been a lot happening, and the spring action we're seeing is the first time we've gotten looks at many of these players in game action in a year.

TIER ONE - Semi-Established Five-Category Hitters

1. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

In Vol. 1.0, I had Sixto Sanchez and Ian Anderson alone in the top tier, but considering I have zero interest in either of those pitchers at their ADP but like the price on Arozarena and Hayes, I'm switching things up. We know Hayes will play every day and have a nice spot in the lineup, and we know Arozarena could go 20/20 if he stays in the lineup against most same-handed pitchers. Andres Gimenez would be in this tier if he were still a prospect. I have these guys much closer than

The top-400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2021. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect in whom you are investing.

Sorry for the delay on Vol. 2.0, I had to finish the divisional prospect articles first. Since Vol. 1.0, there has been a lot happening, and the spring action we're seeing is the first time we've gotten looks at many of these players in game action in a year.

TIER ONE - Semi-Established Five-Category Hitters

1. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

In Vol. 1.0, I had Sixto Sanchez and Ian Anderson alone in the top tier, but considering I have zero interest in either of those pitchers at their ADP but like the price on Arozarena and Hayes, I'm switching things up. We know Hayes will play every day and have a nice spot in the lineup, and we know Arozarena could go 20/20 if he stays in the lineup against most same-handed pitchers. Andres Gimenez would be in this tier if he were still a prospect. I have these guys much closer than ADP. Over the last 10 days in NFBC Draft Champions leagues, Arozarena's ADP is 56 while Hayes' is 135. They're both top-100 guys on my board.

TIER TWO - Top-40 Starting Pitchers

3. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins

4. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta

Nothing has changed here. Anderson has looked good this spring and the Marlins are easing Sanchez into things. Both pitchers will have their workload managed this season, but Sanchez has better pure stuff. That said, I don't have any shares of either pitcher in a redraft league this year and think they're both being overdrafted to some degree based on the fact that I don't expect either guy to eclipse 150 innings.

TIER THREE - Hitters With Impact Potential

5. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

6. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox

7. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins

8. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF/DH, Orioles

9. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners 

10. Bobby Witt, SS/3B/2B, Royals

I've been ending up with Carlson, Vaughn, Kirilloff and Witt in some leagues. The first four guys have pretty stable skill sets, and with the exception of Carlson, they won't help with stolen bases. Kelenic and Witt are top-four overall prospects who are talented enough to swing leagues if they reach their short-term ceilings, but they could also very reasonably struggle to hit for a high average in their first taste of the majors. Jo Adell would be in this tier if he were eligible.

TIER FOUR - Mixed-League Pitchers

11. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins

12. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland

13. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

14. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners

Here's the recent ADP: Rogers (357), McKenzie (214), Skubal (310) and Gilbert (408). I'd jump Rogers several rounds ahead of ADP, but I'm more interested in Skubal and Gilbert at ADP. McKenzie should be fine, but I don't think he'll throw enough innings to justify the current cost.

TIER FIVE - Flawed Mixed-League Hitters

15. Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Red Sox

16. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox

17. Leody Taveras, OF, Rangers

Dalbec is starting to look like Miguel Sano 2.0, which is a productive player, albeit one that I rarely attempt to build around due to the batting average risk. Madrigal is only interesting to me if he's leading off, otherwise he's a two-category (AVG, SB) guy. Taveras looks to be ticketed for the bottom of a bad Rangers lineup, but he'll steal 20-plus bases with double-digit home runs if he can hold an everyday job all season.

TIER SIX - Mixed-League Catchers

18. Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays

19. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins

20. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds

21. Jonah Heim, C, Rangers

It's no guarantee that Kirk makes the Opening Day roster, but he'd be a top-15 catcher for me if he is playing 3-4 days per week. The other three have potential — Jeffers and Stephenson have 15-plus homer upside and Heim could hit for a solid average, but they're all pretty risky.

TIER SEVEN - Relievers

22. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland

23. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

24. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox

I'm not not going out of my way to roster any of these relievers, but Clase has an avenue to saves and Crochet and Kopech are talented enough to be valuable even if they're not getting saves.

TIER EIGHT - Pitchers For Watch Lists/SP Streamers

25. Deivi Garcia, RHP, Yankees

26. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Athletics

27. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres

28. Dane Dunning, RHP, Rangers

29. A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics

30. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

31. Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

32. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

33. Ryan Weathers, LHP, Padres

34. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers

35. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays

36. Luis Patino, RHP, Rays

37. Jackson Kowar, RHP, Royals

38. Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

39. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Blue Jays

40. Chris Rodriguez, RHP, Angels

41. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees

42. Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox

43. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros

44. Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Cubs

45. Keegan Akin, RHP, Orioles

46. Dean Kremer, RHP, Orioles

47. Josh Fleming, LHP, Rays

48. Jose De Leon, RHP, Reds

Some of these guys will get drafted in mixed leagues, but I'm not very interested in drafting any of them. The ones who go undrafted are guys worth monitoring, whether they're in the majors, the minors or on the injured list. The guys with the lower ceilings like Dunning, Akin, Kremer and Fleming are basically just streaming options for me.

TIER NINE - Hitters For Watch Lists

49. Bobby Bradley, DH/1B, Cleveland

50. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, Red Sox

51. Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants

52. Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, Diamondbacks

53. Taylor Trammell, OF, Mariners

54. Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, Marlins

55. Jonathan India, 3B/2B, Reds

56. Kyle Isbel, OF, Royals

57. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers

58. JJ Bleday, OF, Marlins

59. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles

60. Wander Franco, 2B/SS/3B, Rays

61. Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox

62. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF/DH, Dodgers

63. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels

64. Trevor Larnach, OF/DH, Twins

65. Josh Lowe, OF, Rays

66. Joey Bart, C, Giants

67. Nolan Jones, OF/3B/1B, Cleveland

68. Vidal Brujan, 2B/OF, Rays

69. Drew Waters, OF, Atlanta

70. Taylor Walls, SS/2B/3B, Rays

71. Tyler Freeman, 2B/SS, Cleveland

72. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

Some of these guys could open the year in the majors, and they could be worth adding in April if they're playing and performing. Most of the players in this tier will open the year at extended spring training and will head to Triple-A in May, where they will be worth monitoring in case a promotion appears to be on tap.

TIER TEN - Hitters For Deep Leagues

73. Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates

74. Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers

75. Anderson Tejeda, 2B/SS, Rangers

76. Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta

77. Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins

78. Yonathan Daza, OF, Rockies

79. Isaac Paredes, 3B, Tigers

80. Colton Welker, 1B/DH, Rockies

81. Luis Campusano, DH/C, Padres

82. William Contreras, C, Atlanta

83. Ka'ai Tom, OF, Athletics

84. Daniel Johnson, OF, Cleveland

85. Sam Huff, C, Rangers

86. Kevin Padlo, 3B/1B, Rays

87. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers

88. Jake Fraley, OF, Mariners

89. Brent Rooker, OF, Twins

90. Luis Barrera, OF, Athletics

91. Ryan Vilade, SS/3B/OF, Rockies

92. Owen Miller, 2B/3B, Cleveland

93. Sheldon Neuse, 3B/2B/DH, Dodgers

94. Taylor Jones, 1B, Astros

95. Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners

96. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers

97. Sherten Apostel, 1B/3B, Rangers

98. Andy Young, 2B, Diamondbacks

99. Jaylin Davis, OF, Giants

100. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Orioles

101. Khalil Lee, OF, Mets

102. Chas McCormick, OF, Astros

Most of these guys are borderline rosterable in 50-round draft and holds, but there's a chance a few of them could become useful in deeper leagues at some point this summer.

TIER ELEVEN - Pitchers For Watch Lists Pt. 2

103. Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers

104. Julian Merryweather, RHP, Blue Jays

105. Daniel Lynch, LHP, Royals

106. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels

107. Corbin Martin, RHP, Diamondbacks

108. Cory Abbott, RHP, Cubs

109. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners

110. Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays

111. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Marlins

112. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins

113. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, Diamondbacks

Some of these guys are injured, some have no clear path to a rotation spot, some are relievers, and some may not even be ready to debut this year.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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