Baltimore at L.A. Rams (+3), 46.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Perched three games up on the reeling Steelers in the AFC North and with a decisive win in hand over the mighty Patriots in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference, things look pretty sweet in Raven-land right about now. Their schedule over the final month is fairly soft too, so how they fare on this NFC West swing against the Rams and Niners could well decide their path through the playoffs. Lamar Jackson remains a human cheat code, completing better than 70 percent of his passes in three straight games since Baltimore's bye and rushing for at least 60 yards in seven straight as he steams towards a new NFL rushing yards record for a QB, and until some enterprising defensive coordinator figures out how to contain him, this offense (the Ravens have scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and 30-plus in four straight) isn't going to slow down. Is Wade Phillips that coordinator? Mmmm, probably not, although if anybody can find a way to get their hands on Jackson consistently, it's Aaron Donald. The Rams actually haven't given up a lot of damage on the ground to opposition quarterbacks this year, but they also haven't faced any particularly scrambly ones (a hobbled Cam Newton in Week 1 doesn't count). The good news is if this does become a track meet, Jared Goff might have his trio of top
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (+3), 46.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Perched three games up on the reeling Steelers in the AFC North and with a decisive win in hand over the mighty Patriots in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference, things look pretty sweet in Raven-land right about now. Their schedule over the final month is fairly soft too, so how they fare on this NFC West swing against the Rams and Niners could well decide their path through the playoffs. Lamar Jackson remains a human cheat code, completing better than 70 percent of his passes in three straight games since Baltimore's bye and rushing for at least 60 yards in seven straight as he steams towards a new NFL rushing yards record for a QB, and until some enterprising defensive coordinator figures out how to contain him, this offense (the Ravens have scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and 30-plus in four straight) isn't going to slow down. Is Wade Phillips that coordinator? Mmmm, probably not, although if anybody can find a way to get their hands on Jackson consistently, it's Aaron Donald. The Rams actually haven't given up a lot of damage on the ground to opposition quarterbacks this year, but they also haven't faced any particularly scrambly ones (a hobbled Cam Newton in Week 1 doesn't count). The good news is if this does become a track meet, Jared Goff might have his trio of top WRs all in the lineup at the same, with Robert Woods rejoining the team after attending to a family issue and Brandin Cooks getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Of course, the QB himself will have to pull out of the death spiral that's seen him post an 0:3 TD:INT over the last two games. A loss here could put them in a huge hole even in the wild-card hunt, but playing with a sense of desperation might be just what L.A. needs.
The Skinny
BAL injuries: LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle)
LAR injuries: RB Malcolm Brown (questionable, personal), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, illness), RT Rob Havenstein (doubtful, knee)
BAL DFS chalk: none
LAR DFS chalk: none
BAL DFS tournament plays: none
LAR DFS tournament plays: none
Key stat: LAR are 15th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 60.0 percent (21-for-35) of RZ possessions; BAL is t-6th in red-zone defense at 48.4 percent (15-for-31)
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Mark Ingram picks up 70 combined yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Marquise Brown and Seth Roberts while running for 80 yards and a score of his own. Todd Gurley racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 240 yards and a TD to Cooks. Ravens, 31-20
Denver (+4) at Buffalo, 37.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
While this certainly hasn't been a good season for the Broncos, the team motto scrawled on the blackboard in the locker room might as well be "hey, things could be worse." Vic Fangio's defense has mostly been solid, Courtland Sutton is emerging as a legit No. 1 WR, and ... well, that's about it, but that still puts Denver miles above some other clubs on the rebuild scale. The big question for the remainder of the season is who will be throwing passes to Sutton – or rather, when Drew Lock will take over under center. Brandon Allen does have a win under his belt, but a sub-50 percent completion rate in his two starts isn't going to cut it. A banged-up offensive line may be part of the reason why the Broncos are dragging their feet about activating Lock from IR. At 7-3, the Bills are comfortably in position for only their second playoff appearance this millennium, provided they don't collapse down the stretch. Taking advantage of games like this should get them there. As befitting his status as Lamar Jackson's Mini-Me, Josh Allen has quietly been improving as a passer while still making plays with his legs — he has an 8:0 TD:INT the last five games, and four rushing TDs in the last three. Denver features the toughest secondary he'll have faced since getting bamboozled by New England in Week 4, though, so it may be on Devin Singletary to keep things humming.
The Skinny
DEN injuries: WR Tim Patrick (questionable, shoulder), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, ankle), C Connor McGovern (questionable, back), RG Ron Leary (questionable, shoulder), RT Ja'Wuan James (questionable, knee)
BUF injuries: none
DEN DFS chalk: none
BUF DFS chalk: none
DEN DFS tournament plays: none
BUF DFS tournament plays: none
Key stat: DEN is 30th in third-down offense at 28.5 percent; BUF is sixth in third-down defense at 34.6 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, 13 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow
The Scoop
Royce Freeman leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards. Brandon Allen throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Sutton. Singletary picks up 80 combined yards and a score. Josh Allen throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to John Brown. Bills, 20-13
N.Y. Giants (+6) at Chicago, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Hmm, I wonder what Daniel Jones worked on during the Giants' bye? The rookie QB has done some good things since taking over from Eli Manning, but his ball security has been atrocious — even putting his INTs aside, he's lost six of 10 fumbles in the last four games alone. By contrast, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, two quarterbacks Jones better get used to being compared to, have each lost zero of two fumbles all year. Even Jameis Winston is like, "Dude, that's a lot of turnovers." The Giants don't have enough else going for them, especially on the other side of the ball, to be giving away possessions that often. They've coughed up an average of 32 points and more than 375 yards of offense over their six-game losing streak, and that includes a game in which they held Murray to 104 passing yards. Facing Mitchell Trubisky should be a pick-me-up for the Giants defense, but that won't guarantee a win unless Jones can hang onto the ball. As far as the Bears go, they've lost five of their last six because of Trubisky's ineptitude, but they'll also have trouble turning things around if the defense can't find that extra gear. Khalil Mack, for instance, has only one sack and zero forced fumbles over that six-game stretch. Odds are, at least one of these QBs should help the other defense find their identity again.
The Skinny
NYG injuries: TE Evan Engram (out, foot)
CHI injuries: TE Trey Burton (IR, calf), TE Adam Shaheen (out, foot), LB Danny Trevathan (out, elbow)
NYG DFS chalk: none
CHI DFS chalk: Allen Robinson (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
NYG DFS tournament plays: none
CHI DFS tournament plays: Trubisky (NYG 31st in YPA allowed), David Montgomery / Tarik Cohen (NYG t-28th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Anthony Miller (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Bears DST (NYG 31st in giveaways)
Key stat: NYG are 15th in third-down offense at 39.8 percent; CHI is eighth in third-down defense at 35.1 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Saquon Barkley zips for 100 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Jones throws for 230 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Roquan Smith returns to the house. Montgomery picks up 90 combined yards and a score. Trubisky throws for 240 yards and a TD to Miller. Bears, 24-13
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+6.5), 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Steelers' injuries continue to pile up, with receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson being the latest casualties after the Browns went head-hunting last week, and the suspensions the team incurred after the game got ugly don't help either. A game against the winless Bengals shouldn't require all hands on deck Pittsburgh hasn't lost to Cincy since 2015 — especially with the defense relatively healthy. Bengals' extremely temporary quarterback Ryan Finley has a 47.5 percent completion rate and 4.6 YPA through two starts, and there's basically no reason for him to be above Andy Dalton on the depth chart other than to reduce the chances the team stumbles into a win despite itself. As long as Finley is under center, though, the offense is likely to be a wasteland despite Joe Mixon's best efforts, and if the other team scores two touchdowns, it might as well be 20.
The Skinny
PIT injuries: RB James Conner (out, shoulder), WR Smith-Schuster (out, concussion/knee), C Maurkice Pouncey (out, suspension)
CIN injuries: WR A.J. Green (out, ankle), WR Auden Tate (questionable, concussion)
PIT DFS chalk: Jaylen Samuels (CIN 30th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), James Washington (CIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)
CIN DFS chalk: none
PIT DFS tournament plays: Mason Rudolph (CIN 32nd in YPA allowed), Benny Snell (see Samuels), Vance McDonald (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Steelers DST (second in takeaways, CIN 30th in points per game, t-28th in giveaways)
CIN DFS tournament plays: Alex Erickson (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
Key stat: PIT is 24th in third-down offense at 34.5 percent; CIN is 27th in third-down defense at 44.6 percent
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-1 PIT including postseason, average score 25-16 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points. PIT has won nine straight meetings, including a 27-3 victory in Week 4.
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Samuels puts together 70 combined yards, while Benny Snell runs for 60 yards and a TD. Rudolph throws for a season-high 260 yards and touchdowns to McDonald and Washington. Mixon scrapes together 70 yards. Finley throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Tyler Boyd for a score. Steelers, 21-10
Miami (+10.5) at Cleveland, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Dolphins' two-game rebound got snuffed out by the Bills last week, as the defense gave up its most points since Week 2. Miami may be playing better than they were at the start of the year, but the team still puts less talent on the field than anybody it'll face the rest of the wa ... hang on, the Dolphins play the Bengals in Week 16. So, less talent than almost anybody. Curiously enough, DeVante Parker is headed for a career year in the middle of this mess. Maybe he just thrives on chaos. Speaking of chaos, the Browns won the battle last week but may have lost the war when Myles Garrett got indefinitely suspended after taking a swing at Mason Rudolph with Rudolph's own helmet. Garrett says Rudolph's use of a racial slur set him off, and the absurdly over-the-top denial issued by the QB's agent doesn't exactly earn him the benefit of the doubt (all that was missing was some incoherent reference to "being denied due process in the court of public opinion" or the like), but regardless, one of them's playing this week and the other isn't. Cleveland's remarkably still in the playoff picture, sitting only two games back of the second wild-card spot in the AFC, but without their best defensive player it's going to be on Baker Mayfield to continue his recent turnaround (5:0 TD:INT over his last three games) if the Browns are going to close strong and try to squeak into the postseason.
The Skinny
MIA injuries: none
CLE injuries: DE Garrett (out, suspension), DE Olivier Vernon (out, knee), LB Joe Schobert (questionable, groin)
MIA DFS chalk: none
CLE DFS chalk: Nick Chubb (MIA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Odell Beckham (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
MIA DFS tournament plays: none
CLE DFS tournament plays: Mayfield (MIA 28th in YPA allowed, 29th in passing TDs allowed), Kareem Hunt (see Chubb), Browns DST (MIA 31st in points per game, 30th in sack percentage allowed, t-28th in giveaways)
Key stat: MIA is 25th in third-down offense at 33.1 percent; CLE is t-3rd in third-down defense at 32.5 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, 13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Patrick Laird leads the MIA backfield with 70 scrimmage yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for 270 yards and three TDs, finding Parker, Mike Gesicki and Albert Wilson, but he also gets picked off twice. Chubb rumbles for 130 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 80 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and two TDs to Odell Beckham. Browns, 30-21
Tampa Bay (+4.5) at Atlanta, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Rumors about Jameis Winston getting benched are finally ramping up, and considering he's thrown multiple picks in four of the last five games, it's a wonder Bruce Arians has been as patient as he has. Maybe the fact that Winston has also tossed for more than 300 yards in each of those games that's allowed him to retain a sliver of job security. He's also spreading the ball out a little. It's been two whole weeks since either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin had a 100-yard game, and the Bucs' receiving yards leaders against the Saints were Cameron Brate and Scott Miller. Now Winston gets to face a resurgent Atlanta defense that's given up only 12 points over its last two games after never allowing fewer than 20 prior to their Week 9 bye. The Falcons have no hope of making the playoffs at this point — even if they run the table, the best they can do is nine wins in a conference where two second-place teams already have eight victories — but they can probably save Dan Quinn's job with a big finish. Matt Ryan looked 100 percent healthy again last week versus the Panthers, and if anyone can match the Bucs' dynamic duo on the outside, it's Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
The Skinny
TB injuries: none
ATL injuries: RB Devonta Freeman (out, foot), TE Austin Hooper (out, knee)
TB DFS chalk: none
ATL DFS chalk: Ryan (TB 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Ridley (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA against deep throws)
TB DFS tournament plays: Winston (ATL 27th in YPA allowed)
ATL DFS tournament plays: Jones (TB 30th in DVOA against deep throws), Falcons DST (TB 32nd in giveaways)
Key stat: TB is 16th in third-down offense at 39.1 percent; ATL is 28th in third-down defense on the year at 46.0 percent, but 19.2 percent (5-for-26) over the last two games
Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 ATL, average score 32-24 ATL, average margin of victory 11 points. ATL has won five straight meetings.
Weather forecast: indoors
The Scoop
Ronald Jones leads the TB backfield with 60 yards. Winston throws for 320 yards and TDs to Godwin (who tops 100 yards) and Miller but gets picked off twice, one of which Desmond Trufant returns for a score. Brian Hill grinds out 60 yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Ridley (who also surpasses 100 yards) twice and Julio once. Falcons, 35-23
Carolina (+9.5) at New Orleans, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Panthers have lost three of four to put a massive dent in their playoff hopes, largely due to Kyle Allen finally looking like a guy who went undrafted out of college rather than a real challenger to a healthy Cam Newton for the starting gig. The second-year QB has a 58.6 percent completion rate, 3:9 TD:INT and 6.3 YPA over those four games, which means Christian McCaffrey's 653 yards and five TDs over that same stretch have largely gone to waste. If you define MVP as the player whose team would suffer most without him, CMac's building a strong case — he's responsible for more than 45 percent of Carolina's scrimmage yards, and 14 of the team's 25 total TDs. The Saints can essentially clinch the division with a win, as it would put them four games up on the Panthers with five to play. While Sean Payton's squad still has a reputation as a top-shelf offensive squad, it's the defense's consistency that's really been keeping them marching toward the postseason — the Saints are one of only three teams left in the league, along with the Niners and Chargers (wait, really? Huh) not to give up 30 or more points in a game this season. Keeping the opposition within striking distance is always going to give Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara a chance to mount a comeback, and it could make them a very tough out in January.
The Skinny
CAR injuries: LT Dennis Daley (questionable, groin)
NO injuries: LG Andrus Peat (out, forearm), CB Marshon Lattimore (questionable, hamstring)
CAR DFS chalk: none
NO DFS chalk: Alvin Kamara (CAR 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)
CAR DFS tournament plays: Panthers DST (third in sack percentage)
NO DFS tournament plays: none
Key stat: CAR is 28th in third-down offense at 30.7 percent; NO is fifth in third-down defense at 33.6 percent
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-5 NO including postseason, average score 26-26, average margin of victory 11 points. NO had won four straight meetings prior to a 33-14 CAR victory in Week 17 of last year when the Saints rested their starters.
Weather forecast: indoors
The Scoop
McCaffrey chews up another 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 250 yards and a second score to Curtis Samuel. Kamara responds with 150 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Latavius Murray also bangs in a TD. Brees throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Jared Cook and Ted Ginn. Saints 34-21
Seattle (+1.5) at Philadelphia, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Seahawks come out of their bye still one game back of the Niners in the NFC West and facing arguably the toughest stretch of their schedule. Russell Wilson will look to bounce back from one of his weakest performances of the year, but it's Seattle's defense that really needs to get things figured out. They've held only three opponents to 20 points or less — the Bengals, Cardinals and a Matt Schaub-led Falcons squad — which means if Wilson doesn't play like an MVP, they're in trouble. Of course, Eagles fans long for the days when their quarterback was playing like an MVP. Carson Wentz simply hasn't looked the same this season, and an injury-ravaged receiving corps isn't an adequate excuse when Zach Ertz is standing right there. Wentz's 61.2 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA are in Mason Rudolph/Gardner Minshew territory, and Nick Foles isn't around to bail the team out any more. The Philly defense did hold the Patriots to 17 points last week (not that it mattered with the offense only scraping together 10), the third straight game it's held the opposition below 20, but that's a much taller task against Wilson than it was against Tom Brady, much less Mitchell Trubisky.
The Skinny
SEA injuries: DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee)
PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder), WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable, ankle), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, knee), RT Lane Johnson (out, concussion)
SEA DFS chalk: none
PHI DFS chalk: none
SEA DFS tournament plays: none
PHI DFS tournament plays: Howard / Miles Sanders (SEA t-28th in rushing TDs allowed)
Key stat: PHI is fifth in third-down offense at 46.0 percent; SEA is 10th in third-down defense at 35.3 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 14-15 mph, 5-15 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Chris Carson picks up 60 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Tyler Lockett and Jacob Hollister. Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Wentz throws for 220 yards and a TD to Ertz. Seahawks, 24-19
Detroit at Washington (+3.5), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
I'm glad I got that David Blough/Eminem joke in last week before Jeff Driskel accounted for three TDs against the Cowboys. The Lions' offense still misses Matthew Stafford, but Driskel's scrambling help make up a bit for his sub-60 percent completion rate and gives defenses something else to worry about. The Detroit running game even showed a little life with Bo Scarbrough and J.D. McKissic splitting the load in a traditional thunder and lightning sort of arrangement, although Ingram and Kamara they ain't. Really, though, the Washington defense seems to have enough trouble tying their cleats, much less trying to decode the other team's scheme. Coming off a game in which they surrendered 34 points and 400 yards of offense to Sam Darnold and the Jets, Washington may need Dwayne Haskins' development curve to suddenly become exponential – the rookie QB did toss his first career TD passes last week, but he took six sacks doing it, which isn't going to help calm down his happy feet in the pocket.
The Skinny
DET injuries: QB Stafford (out, back), C Frank Ragnow (out, concussion)
WAS injuries: RB Adrian Peterson (questionable, toe), RB Chris Thompson (questionable, toe), TE Vernon Davis (IR, concussion), CB Josh Norman (questionable, hamstring)
DET DFS chalk: none
WAS DFS chalk: none
DET DFS tournament plays: Marvin Jones (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), T.J. Hockenson (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Lions DST (WAS 32nd in points per game)
WAS DFS tournament plays: Dwayne Haskins (DET 30th in passing yards allowed per game)
Key stat: DET is 13th in third-down offense at 41.5 percent; WAS is 32nd in third-down defense at 49.3 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 14-16 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Scarbrough pounds out 70 yards and a touchdown, while McKissic also scores. Driskel throws for 230 yards and TDs to Jones and Hockenson. Derrius Guice leads the WAS backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Haskins throws for under 200 yards but does hit Terry McLaurin for a TD. Lions 28-17
Oakland at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Don't look now, but the Raiders are hot on the Chiefs' heels for the AFC West title. They've somewhat quietly won three straight games, and while only beating Cincinnati by a touchdown doesn't exactly scream contender, at least they won. Jon Gruden has brought the best out of Derek Carr and has his guys playing football his way throughout the rest of the roster, and while it's fair to wonder if the team would be better off right now with Khalil Mack instead of Josh Jacobs, there are still first and third-round picks coming from the 4-6 Bears in the 2020 draft to account for. Sam Darnold is also starting to play better for the Jets, though torching Washington's defense doesn't prove much more than he has a pulse. More concerning might be the continued mediocre play of Le'Veon Bell. The team's paying him an awful lot of money for a 3.2 YPC, and while a battered offensive line hasn't helped matters, Bell was supposed to be a guy who could raise the level of the unit around him, not play down to its level.
The Skinny
OAK injuries: none
NYJ injuries: WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, elbow), RT Chuma Edoga (questionable, ankle), LB C.J. Mosley (out, groin)
OAK DFS chalk: none
NYJ DFS chalk: none
OAK DFS tournament plays: Tyrell Williams (NYJ 31st in DVOA against deep throws), Raiders DST (NYJ 31st in sack percentage allowed)
NYJ DFS tournament plays: Sam Darnold (OAK 29th in YPA allowed, 30th in passing TDs allowed), Jamison Crowder (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Key stat: OAK is third in third-down offense at 47.6 percent; NYJ are 26th in third-down defense at 44.2 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 12-13 mph wind, 15-35 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Jacobs gains 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 260 yards and TDs to Williams and Hunter Renfrow. Bell picks up 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Crowder. Raiders 21-16
Jacksonville (+3) at Tennessee, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Nick Foles' return from IR didn't lead to a Jaguars win, but the veteran QB didn't look rusty in throwing for nearly 300 yards with two TDs. Unfortunately, that was the only offense the team could muster, as Leonard Fournette's end zone allergy is becoming a real problem. He's touched the ball 229 times so far, and hit pay dirt on one of them. That's... not ideal. With the defense no longer scoring points by the bushel, OC John DeFilippo really needs to find a way to get the running back going. The Titans don't have that problem. Derrick Henry has 10 TDs in 10 games as he plows his way towards a career year, and his next yard from scrimmage will give him 1,000. His consistency has allowed Ryan Tannehill to flourish, and the former Dolphin has topped a YPA of 8.5 in four of his five starts. He's still a little pick-prone, but there's a reason they got tied of his act in Miami. Tennessee's defense seemed to run out of gas before the team's bye, giving up a combined 62 points to the Panthers and Chiefs (or rather, to Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes), but they've got no MVP-caliber talents to worry about this week.
The Skinny
JAC injuries: none
TEN injuries: TE Delanie Walker (doubtful, ankle)
JAC DFS chalk: none
TEN DFS chalk: Derrick Henry (JAC 32nd in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing DVOA)
JAC DFS tournament plays: Chris Conley (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Jaguars DST (fourth in sack percentage, TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)
TEN DFS tournament plays: none
Key stat: TEN is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 72.0 percent (18-for-25) of RZ possessions; JAC is 32nd in red-zone offense at 34.5 percent (10-for-29)
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TEN, average score 21-19 TEN, average margin of victory 11 points. TEN had won four straight meetings prior to a 20-7 JAC victory in Week 3.
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Fournette gains 80 yards. Foles throws for 260 yards and TDs to D.J. Chark and Chris Conley. Henry gallops for 120 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 250 yards and scores to A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith. Titans, 27-20
Dallas (+6.5) at New England, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
The Cowboys are clinging to the top spot in the NFC East, but the only team currently with a .500 record that they've managed to beat is the Eagles, which if nothing else is punching a hole in Dak Prescott's MVP case. They'll get another chance to take down a contender here, but it won't be easy. The defense keeps coming up short at weird times — allowing 27 points to Jeff Driskel last week being the most recent example — but it hasn't needed to be brilliant with the offense delivering at least 24 points in every game but one. It's pretty clear at this point Jerry Jones made the wrong choice (if it was an either/or situation) in giving Ezekiel Elliott a big-money deal over Prescott, though — the former is still having a very good year, but he hasn't moved the needle the way Dallas' quarterback has. The Pats came out of their bye with a win of their own over Philly, but it wasn't exactly convincing, and the shadow of getting routed by the Ravens still hangs over them. Tom Brady still can't the passing game to slip into gear, and the defense's numbers remain padded by their ridiculously soft first-half schedule (combined winning percentage of their first eight opponents, counting the Jets twice: .338). If they can hold the Cowboys to two TDs or less the way they have everybody but the Ravens, the defense's argument for being legitimately elite as opposed to a strength-of-schedule mirage will look a lot stronger.
The Skinny
DAL injuries: LG Connor Williams (questionable. knee), LB Leighton Vander Esch (out, neck)
NE injuries: QB Brady (questionable, elbow), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, shoulder), WR Mohamed Sanu (questionable, ankle), WR Phillip Dorsett (questionable, concussion), RT Marcus Cannon (questionable, illness), S Patrick Chung (questionable, heel)
DAL DFS chalk: none
NE DFS chalk: none
DAL DFS tournament plays: none
NE DFS tournament plays: Patriots DST (first in points allowed per game, second in sack percentage, first in takeaways)
Key stat: DAL is first in third-down offense at 52.1 percent; NE is first in third-down defense at 19.3 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 9-13 mph wind, 35-50 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Elliott collects 80 scrimmage yards. Prescott throws for 280 yards and TDs to Amari Cooper and Blake Jarwin. Sony Michel grinds out 60 yards and a score, while James White adds 50 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Brady throws for 240 yards and a second score to N'Keal Harry, while Devin McCourty returns a Randall Cobb fumble to the house. Patriots, 28-20
Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST
The Packers are a half-game up on the Vikings in the NFC North and already hold a win over them, so a loss here wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but obviously Aaron Rodgers wants to put the upstarts in their place and re-establish Green Bay among the conference's top squads. Weirdly, the passing game has been the least important element of the team's success. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have been dangerous out of the backfield, and the offseason addition of the "Smith Brothers" (Preston Smith, formerly of Washington, and ex-Raven Za'Darius Smith) to replace Clay Matthews coming off the edge has injected 18.5 sacks and counting into the pass rush. If at some point Rodgers and a healthy Davante Adams (zero TDs through six games, although he does have three 100-yard performances) get rolling as well, look out. There's no reason to think the Niners are going to give up the top seed in the NFC easily, though. Their only loss went to overtime, and even with a battered set of skill players, the offense still piled up 36 points against the Cards last week. The defense might be fading, though, averaging 26 points against over the last three games after grudgingly allowing 11 a game through the first two months of the year. Facing Rodgers is a tough spot in which to turn things around, but if Jimmy Garoppolo can stop throwing the ball to guys in the wrong uniform, the unit could catch its collective breath and return to form.
The Skinny
GB injuries: none
SF injuries: RB Matt Breida (doubtful, ankle), WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable, ribs), WR Deebo Samuel (questionable, shoulder), TE George Kittle (questionable, knee/ankle), LT Joe Staley (out, finger), DE Dee Ford (out, hamstring)
GB DFS chalk: none
SF DFS chalk: none
GB DFS tournament plays: none
SF DFS tournament plays: 49ers DST (second in points allowed per game, first in sack percentage, third in sack percentage)
Key stat: GB is second in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 68.6 percent (24-for-35) of RZ possessions; SF is first in red-zone defense at 40.9 percent (9-for-22)
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Jones leads the GB backfield with 60 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Adams and Allen Lazard. Tevin Coleman picks up 70 yards and a score. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and a TD to a returning Kittle. 49ers 23-14
Indianapolis (+3.5) at Houston, 45.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST
If there's one thing that's a hallmark of this rivalry, it's the closeness of it. Eleven consecutive regular-season meetings, including this year's clash in Week 7, have been decided by single digits, and 10 of those by seven points or less — which is why last year's 21-7 Colts win in the playoffs was so shocking. Indy could be swapping one stud in for another this week, as Marlon Mack will be sidelined for a while with a broken hand but T.Y. Hilton could make his return. That's probably a net win. Hilton's got 10 career TDs against the Texans (and no more than five against any other club), and he's averaged more than 100 yards a game in 15 matchups against them. The Texans are licking their wounds after last week's mauling at the hands of the Ravens, and hat's off to anyone who had Gus Edwards in their "Who will be the first person to run for more than 100 yards against the Texans since 2017?" pool, but a win here puts them back on top of the AFC South. Deshaun Watson failed to produce a touchdown for the first time all season in Baltimore — he had two previous games without a TD pass but managed to run for one in each — so you know he'll be looking to re-establish his MVP bona fides, and potentially getting Will Fuller back would give the passing game a boost.
The Skinny
IND injuries: RB Mack (out, hand), WR Hilton (questionable, calf), TE Eric Ebron (questionable, ankle)
HOU injuries: WR Fuller (questionable, hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (questionable, hamstring), S Justin Reid (out, concussion)
Key stat: IND is eighth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 63.2 percent (24-for-38) of RZ possessions; HOU is 30th in red-zone defense at 65.5 percent (19-for-29)
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-4 IND including postseason, average score 23-20 IND, average margin of victory six points. IND has won the last three meetings, including a 21-7 victory in last year's Wild Card game, and five of the last six.
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Nyheim Hines leads the IND backfield with 80 combined yards, while Jonathan Williams adds 50 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for 260 yards and two TDs, one to Hilton and one to Zach Pascal, while running in a score of his own. Carlos Hyde bangs out 60 yards. Watson throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills. Colts, 24-23
Last week's record: 9-5, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 97-64-1, 76-84-2 ATS, 77-80-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 733-448-5, 546-596-44 ATS, 443-469-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
