New England (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 49.5
Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Hastily rescheduled from Sunday after Cam Newton's positive COVID test, the Patriots fortunately didn't have any other players or staff get hit as well, so the game will go on rather than being in limbo like the Titans-Steelers clash. It'll go on without Cam, though. Brian Hoyer will start under center for the Pats, which is a little like going from driving in NASCAR to driving a tour bus. Fun fact: Newton had as many rushing touchdowns in Week 1 (or Week 2, take your pick) as Hoyer's had in his entire 12-year career. The game plan may have to change a little, is what I'm saying. Leaning on the team's backfield depth, which gets James White back this week and potentially Damien Harris as well, to control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field isn't the worst idea. It's not the best one either — Mahomes doesn't need much time to do damage, and he hasn't been intimidated by the Pats' defensive reputation, posting an 8:3 TD:INT in three career games against them while averaging 310 passing yards a game. New England's defense also hasn't regained its dominant swagger to begin 2020, although they haven't been bad. "Not bad" probably isn't going to cut it against the 3-0 defending champs, though.
The Skinny
NE injuries: QB Newton (out, COVID), RB Sony Michel (out, quad), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, calf),
New England (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 49.5
Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Hastily rescheduled from Sunday after Cam Newton's positive COVID test, the Patriots fortunately didn't have any other players or staff get hit as well, so the game will go on rather than being in limbo like the Titans-Steelers clash. It'll go on without Cam, though. Brian Hoyer will start under center for the Pats, which is a little like going from driving in NASCAR to driving a tour bus. Fun fact: Newton had as many rushing touchdowns in Week 1 (or Week 2, take your pick) as Hoyer's had in his entire 12-year career. The game plan may have to change a little, is what I'm saying. Leaning on the team's backfield depth, which gets James White back this week and potentially Damien Harris as well, to control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field isn't the worst idea. It's not the best one either — Mahomes doesn't need much time to do damage, and he hasn't been intimidated by the Pats' defensive reputation, posting an 8:3 TD:INT in three career games against them while averaging 310 passing yards a game. New England's defense also hasn't regained its dominant swagger to begin 2020, although they haven't been bad. "Not bad" probably isn't going to cut it against the 3-0 defending champs, though.
The Skinny
NE injuries: QB Newton (out, COVID), RB Sony Michel (out, quad), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, calf), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf)
KC injuries: DT Chris Jones (questionable, groin)
NE DFS targets: James White $5,200 DK / $5,200 FD (KC 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $6,900 DK / $8,000 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 28th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
NE DFS fades: N'Keal Harry $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Patriots DST $3,200 DK / $4,200 FD (KC first in sack rate allowed, t-first in INT% allowed)
KC DFS fades: Travis Kelce $6,800 DK / $7,600 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 58.5 percent; NE is t-fourth in third-down defense at 37.0 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: White leads the NE backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Rex Burkhead adds 60 yards and a TD. Hoyer throws for 220 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire piles up 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and two more scores, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) and Mecole Hardman. Kansas City, 34-17
Atlanta (+7.5) at Green Bay, o/u 58.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
I am genuinely baffled as to how Dan Quinn is still head coach of the Falcons. To have your team blow another late lead one week after putting the "1" in "1-440" (as in, the all-time record of teams scoring at least 39 points with zero turnovers) ... how do you come back from that, as a team or as a coach? Atlanta is 0-3. Quinn was supposed to be a defensive guru when he came over from Seattle, but through three weeks his defense had given up more points than anybody else in the league. This is his sixth season in charge. It's not going to get better, and Matt Ryan and Julio Jones aren't going to get younger. Unlike, apparently, Aaron Rodgers. Through three games, the future Hall of Famer has his best completion percentage since 2012 and his highest YPA since 2014, and he's done it while only getting about six quarters out of Davante Adams. Even if defenses were to completely sell out to stop the pass, Aaron Jones would just erupt for another three-TD game. It's Aaron'ed if you do, Aaron'ed if you don't, but in a matchup like this, against a defense as demoralized and banged up as this one, who knows what kind of pinball numbers they could both put up.
The Skinny
ATL injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (questionable, ankle), WR Russell Gage (concussion), RT Kaleb McGary (questionable, knee), K Younghoe Koo (out, groin), DT Grady Jarrett (questionable, hip), DE Takkarist McKinley (questionable, groin), DE Dante Fowler (questionable, ankle), S Keanu Neal (out, hamstring)
GB injuries: WR Davante Adams (questionable, hamstring), WR Allen Lazard (out, abdomen), DT Kenny Clark (questionable, groin), LB Christian Kirksey (doubtful, pectoral), LB Za'Darius Smith (questionable, ankle)
ATL DFS targets: Matt Ryan $6,000 DK / $7,700 FD (GB 30th in QB rating against), Todd Gurley $5,500 DK / $6,600 FD (GB 29th in YPC allowed), Calvin Ridley $7,500 DK / $8,100 FD (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
GB DFS targets: Aaron Rodgers $7,100 DK / $8,000 FD (ATL 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QB), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ATL DFS fades: Russell Gage $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: none
Key stat: GB is 15th in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent; ATL is 28th in red-zone defense at 78.6 percent, and 32nd in RZ touchdowns allowed with 11
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 15-17 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gurley gains 90 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan throws for 230 yards and a TD to Hayden Hurst. Jones hammers out 140 yards and two scores of his own. Rodgers throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Adams (who tops 100 yards) twice and Valdes-Scantling once. Packers, 38-24
Baltimore at Washington (+13), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Ravens got away from what they do best last week, but heading into the half down 27-10 has a way of messing with your plans. Despite the setback against Kansas City, this is still one of the most dangerous offenses in the league once it gets rolling downhill, and a Washington front seven missing two key components will have a Sisyphean task slowing it down. It's also doubtful a young offense that has yet to establish its identity can keep pace with Lamar Jackson and company. Washington hasn't had much luck on the ground, ranking 27th in rushing yards and 29th in YPC, but the Dwayne Haskins-led aerial attack has been worse, ranking 30th in passing yards while Haskins is 18th in intended air yards per attempt and last (33rd among 33 qualifiers) in air yards per completion, and he has yet to complete 60 percent of his passes in any game this year. It's one thing to be inaccurate while pressuring the secondary deep, a la Jameis Winston, but Haskins has been inaccurate while dinking and dunking. Potentially take his two best yards-after-catch options off the field as well, and you start to wonder how this team is going to score any points at all.
The Skinny
BAL injuries: LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, shoulder), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, knee)
WAS injuries: WR Terry McLaurin (questionable, thigh), WR Steven Sims (out, toe), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, hip), DE Chase Young (out, groin), DT Matthew Ioannidis (IR, biceps), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (questionable, illness)
BAL DFS targets: Lamar Jackson $8,100 DK / $9,600 FD (WAS t-29th in YPC allowed to QB)
WAS DFS targets: Washington DST $2,100 DK / $3,500 FD (second in sack rate, BAL 31st in sack rate allowed)
BAL DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Antonio Gibson $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (BAL second in rushing DVOA)
Key stat: WAS is 30th in third-down conversions at 34.1 percent; BAL is 23rd in third-down defense at 47.1 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: J.K. Dobbins leads the BAL running backs with 70 combined yards and a TD, while Jackson runs for 70 yards and a score of his own. He also throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Marquise Brown. Gibson gains 60 yards, and Haskins throws for less than 200 yards. Ravens, 24-9
L.A. Chargers (+7) at Tampa Bay, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
It's been a tough start to the post-Philip Rivers era for the Bolts, as they've lost consecutive game — and, truth be told, they didn't so much win their opener as the Bengals lost it. They came close to winning in Week 3 were it not for Austin Ekeler losing the handle on a hook-and-ladder toss from Keenan Allen on their last play, but needing a trick play to beat the Panthers isn't any kind of moral victory. Rookie Justin Herbert has been forced under center ahead of schedule, but he's looked pretty good and has certainly injected ... err, sparked some life into a passing game that didn't get much done with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Coach Anthony Lynn keeps insisting Taylor will get his job back once he's fully recovered from his punctured lung, but every solid Herbert performance makes that more and more unlikely. There's no quarterback controversy brewing in Tampa Bay, of course, as Tom Brady has the Bucs on top of the NFC South, though that's more due to the defense, and the Saints' recent stumbles. Coach Bruce Arians continues to play three-card monte with his backfield for all the fantasy-GM marks who invested in it — hey, maybe this time, Ke'Shawn Vaughn will be the black queen! — but it's the passing game that remains the work in progress. Brady might need to wait until both his stud receivers are healthy before things really start to click.
The Skinny
LAC injuries: QB Tyrod Taylor (out, chest), WR Mike Williams (out, hamstring), RG Trai Turner (out, groin), RT Bryan Bulaga (out, back), DE Melvin Ingram (IR, knee), LB Nick Vigil (questionable, groin), CB Chris Harris (IR, foot), S Rayshawn Jenkins (questionable, groin)
TB injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (out, ankle), WR Chris Godwin (out, hamstring), WR Scotty Miller (questionable, hip)
LAC DFS targets: KJ Hill $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (TB 22nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
TB DFS targets: O.J. Howard $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (LAC 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
LAC DFS fades: Austin Ekeler $7,100 DK / $6,900 FD (TB second in YPC allowed), Keenan Allen $6,500 DK / $6,900 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1), Jalen Guyton $3,400 DK / $4,800 FD (TB fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS fades: none
Key stat: LAC are 22nd in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent; TB is t-sixth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 40-55 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Ekeler leads the LAC backfield with 80 combined yards. Herbert throws for 240 yards and a TD to Hill. Ronald Jones picks up 90 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Mike Evans and Howard. Buccaneers, 24-16
Seattle at Miami (+6.5), o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The NFC West is ridiculous. Russell Wilson has put together one of the most dazzling starts to a season in NFL history to lead his team to 3-0, and the Seahawks are only one game up on the pack because nobody in the division is below .500. Talk about your slim margins for error. In theory, Seattle is facing the longest possible road trip that doesn't involve an overseas contest, but who even knows what kind of factor that is in 2020 relative to all the other chaos that can swamp a team. Of more concern for the Hawks is their battered secondary, but having the team's top two RBs hurt just gives Russ more excuses to cook. The Dolphins got an extra few days to celebrate their first win, and Ryan Fitzpatrick appears to be on one of his heaters, completing 73.1 percent of his passes with a 4:0 TD:INT in the last two games. That's all the good news. For the bad news, just look below at Miami's futility keeping the other team out of the end zone from in close compared to Wilson's deadly accuracy. Maybe Fitzmagic can conjure up a wild shootout win, but keeping Seattle to less than 30 points is going to be impossible if they get picked apart again in the red zone.
The Skinny
SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (questionable, knee), RB Carlos Hyde (questionable, shoulder), RG Damien Lewis (questionable, ankle), S Jamal Adams (out, groin), CB Shaquill Griffin (questionable, shoulder), CB Quinton Dunbar (out, knee)
MIA injuries: CB Byron Jones (doubtful, groin)
SEA DFS targets: Russell Wilson $7,800 DK / $9,000 FD (MIA 32nd in YPA allowed), Travis Homer $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (MIA 31st in rushing DVOA, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
MIA DFS targets: Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,400 DK / $7,100 FD (SEA 31st in YPA allowed), Preston Williams $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (SEA 25th in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)
SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf $6,800 DK / $6,900 FD (MIA third in DVOA vs. WR2)
MIA DFS fades: Myles Gaskin $5,000 DK / $5,400 FD (SEA first in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at a perfect 9-for-9 (100 percent); MIA is 32nd in red-zone defense at 87.5 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, 11-12 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Homer leads the SEA backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Wilson runs in a score of his own and throws for 330 yards and two TDs, finding Tyler Lockett and David Moore. Gaskin scampers for 70 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and two scores to DeVante Parker and Williams but also tosses a pick-six to Bobby Wagner to crush any hope of a comeback. Seahawks, 41-17
Minnesota (+4.5) at Houston, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Who would have thought, looking at the initial schedule, that this would be a battle of winless squads? The Vikings' defense has maintained such a solid reputation in recent years, it's somewhat hard to fathom just how bad they've been to begin 2020. Coming into this week, they were the only team in the league in the bottom seven in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed, and only a Falcons defense that's been back on the bus for the start of their fourth quarters has given up more points per game. At least Minnesota was an entertaining loser in Week 3 — the emergence of Justin Jefferson meant Kirk Cousins didn't have to try and force every pass to Adam Thielen, and everybody thrived as a result. That's some good momentum to have before facing a Texans defense that's managed to find a category to be worse than the Vikings in, as Houston is the only team left in the league without a takeaway. I've seen a lot of excuses made for their poor start in terms of the quality of their opposition, but it's not like any of their three losses were particularly competitive — sure, they only lost by a TD last week against the Steelers, but even when they were up 14-3 early in the second quarter it seemed only a matter of time before the tide turned. I know I sound like a broken record, but aside from Deshaun Watson, this team doesn't have a difference maker on either side of the ball, and it shows. Maybe they don't need another one this week, but Watson won't get them back in contention in the AFC South on his own.
The Skinny
MIN injuries: CB Mike Hughes (out, neck)
HOU injuries: none
MIN DFS targets: Kirk Cousins $5,600 DK / $6,800 FD (HOU 29th in QB rating against), Kyle Rudolph $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Vikings DST $2,800 DK / $3,300 FD (HOU 32nd in sack rate allowed)
HOU DFS targets: Deshaun Watson $6,600 DK / $7,800 FD (MIN 30th in YPA allowed), Will Fuller $5,900 DK / $6,100 FD (MIN 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws), Randall Cobb $4,800 DK / $5,400 FD (MIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Texans DST $2,500 DK / $3,700 FD (MIN 32nd in INT% allowed)
MIN DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: none
Key stat: MIN is 27th in third-down conversions at 36.0 percent; HOU is 18th in third-down defense at 44.4 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Dalvin Cook bangs out 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Thielen (who surpasses 100 yards) twice and Rudolph once. David Johnson responds with 130 scrimmage yards and a score, while Watson throws for 340 yards and TDs to Will Fuller and Randall Cobb. Texans, 30-28
New Orleans at Detroit (+4), o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Much like the excuses made for the Texans, the Saints' slow start on defense can be written off as a product of a tough early schedule. The unit did well enough against the Bucs in Tom Brady's debut, and not containing either the Raiders in their Vegas opener, or Aaron Rodgers in prime time, is nothing to be ashamed of. Another bad showing, however, and questions are going to be asked, even if the secondary comes into this one at well below full strength. The Lions' passing game might be a handful even for a healthy set of DBs. Kenny Golladay is back, T.J. Hockenson seems like a breakout waiting to happen, and the mess coach Matt Patricia has made of his backfield might lead to Matthew Stafford tossing up 40 times a game instead of 30 on a more regular basis. This is one shootout in which Drew Brees could have a hard time keeping pace.
The Skinny
NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (out, ankle), TE Jared Cook (out, groin), LG Andrus Peat (out. ankle), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, hamstring), CB Janoris Jenkins (out, shoulder)
DET injuries: CB Desmond Trufant (questionable, hamstring)
NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $8,000 DK / $8,800 FD (DET 31st in YPC allowed)
DET DFS targets: Marvin Jones $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (NO 24th in DVOA vs. WR2), Danny Amendola $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: none
Key stat: DET is 27th in red-zone conversions at 46.2 percent; NO is t-30th in red-zone defense at 83.3 percent
Weather forecast: indoor
The Scoop: Kamara races for 140 combined yards and two TDs. Brees throws for 270 yards and a score to Emmanuel Sanders. Adrian Peterson runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 320 yards and three TDs, finding Golladay, Jones and Hockenson. Lions, 31-30
Cleveland (+4.5) at Dallas, o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Browns have bounced back nicely after their nightmarish Week 1, and coach Kevin Stefanski seems to be getting the dawg house in order. He's done it by leaning heavily on his backfield — Baker Mayfield has attempted exactly 23 passes in each of the last two games, a positively prehistoric numbers by today's standards, but as long as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and both averaging more than five yards a carry, it's hard to argue with the results. That strategy may not work quite as well against Dallas. The Cowboys are seventh in YPC allowed (3.8) and have been much more vulnerable through the air, 25th in YPA allowed and last in the league in air yards per attempt allowed. Odell Beckham has yet to face them while not wearing a Giants uniform, but if he's ever going to rediscover that form, this might be the week. On the other hand, pounding the rock might be the best way to keep Dak Prescott off the field. The NFL leader in passing yards has been slinging the ball around like his paycheck depended on it — after becoming the first QB in history to throw for more than 400 yards and run for three touchdowns in Week 2, he then become the second QB in history to throw for 450 or more yards in back-to-back games last week in Seattle (Jameis Winston was the first in 2019). That Dallas is 1-2 despite those massive numbers tells you how bad the rest of the team has been at times, but that record's still good enough for a share of the division lead in the NFC Least. Whoops, I meant East. There's still talent on this defense despite a couple of key players on IR, but the unit hasn't gelled yet under new coordinator Mike Nolan. If Prescott can keep things together for now, a big second-half run for this team is entirely plausible.
The Skinny
CLE injuries: RB Hunt (questionable, groin), LG Joel Bitonio (questionable, back), DE Olivier Vernon (questionable, abdomen), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, groin), CB Greedy Williams (out, shoulder)
DAL injuries: LT Tyron Smith (questionable, neck), CB Chidobe Awuzie (IR, hamstring), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, shoulder)
CLE DFS targets: Baker Mayfield $5,800 DK / $7,000 FD (DAL 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in TD% allowed), Jarvis Landry $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
DAL DFS targets: none
CLE DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: Michael Gallup $6,200 DK / $5,900 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Key stat: DAL is t-seventh in red-zone conversions at 72.7 percent; CLE is 27th in red-zone defense at 76.9 percent
Weather forecast: retractable roof
The Scoop Chubb rambles for 90 yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Landry and Beckham, but also loses a fumble on a sack that turns into a DeMarcus Lawrence touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott gains 80 yards. Prescott throws for 310 yards and three TDs, one to Dalton Schultz and two to CeeDee Lamb, while Amari Cooper tops 100 yards. Cowboys, 28-27
Jacksonville (+3) at Cincinnati, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The public can be so fickle. Minshew Mania might be going the way of Lisztomania after his dud of a performance against the Dolphins. Instead the spotlight has been on rookie running back James Robinson, who's hit for 90-plus scrimmage yards in all three games while scoring three TDs. Given the shaky nature of the Jags' defense, though, Minshew's probably going to have to keep airing it out regardless of the results. Maybe he can tease a revenge game out of Tyler Eifert or something. Burrow Mania doesn't have the same ring to it, but we're probably going to have to come up with something to describe the outpouring of fanning and stanning that's about to be headed the way of the Bengals' signal caller. Joe Burrow has played like a rookie at times, sure, but back-to-back 300-yard games and a 5:1 TD:INT on the year are impressive numbers for any QB regardless of how much experience they have. A.J. Green has been a near non-factor, but it hasn't mattered as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins (or should that be TeeDee Higgins?) have more than picked up the slack. As long as their secondary keeps delivering solid performances, Burrow's first win will come sooner or later.
The Skinny
JAC injuries: C Brandon Linder (out, knee), K Stephen Hauschka (questionable, knee)
CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, chest), DT Geno Atkins (out, shoulder), CB Mackensie Alexander (doubtful, ribs)
JAC DFS targets: James Robinson $6,500 DK / $6,600 FD (CIN 31st in rushing yards allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed)
CIN DFS targets: Joe Burrow $6,300 DK / $7,400 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in QB rating against, 29th in YPA allowed), Drew Sample $3,500 DK / $4,700 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
JAC DFS fades: Gardner Minshew $5,900 DK / $7,400 FD (CIN fourth in QB rating against), DJ Chark $6,000 DK / $6,800 FD (CIN third in DVOA vs. WR1), Tyler Eifert $3,500 DK / $4,800 FD (CIN fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
CIN DFS fades: none
Key stat: CIN is 26th in third-down conversions at 37.8 percent; JAC is 28th in third-down defense at 50.0 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy. temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-25 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Robinson zips for 110 combined yards and a score. Minshew throws for 230 yards and a TD to Keelan Cole. Mixon gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding Higgins, Sample and Giovani Bernard. Bengals, 31-19
Indianapolis at Chicago (+2.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
We were so focused on who Philip Rivers would anoint as the next Danny Woodhead, we might have missed him finding his new Antonio Gates. Mo Alie-Cox, an athletic former college basketball player who checks in at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds (Gates was 6-4, 255), erupted for an 8-161-1 line on just nine targets over the last two games, and even with Jack Doyle and offseason free-agent pickup Trey Burton both now healthy, MAC might be laying the foundation for plenty of future highlights and leaving the Colts' other tight ends in his (eye) shadow. Something something lip gloss. (Look, everyone else is going to try and make Mid-American Conference jokes about those initials, I had to stake out my own turf on it.) Indy has invested a lot of time in Alie-Cox's development — he was signed as an undrafted free agent way back in 2017 — and it seems to finally be paying off, as he's earning high marks for his blocking as well as his receiving skills. Given the patchwork state of the team's wideout corps, more work for all the TEs, but especially Alie-Cox, seems entirely plausible. The Bears had their own changing of the guard at a slightly more crucial position last week, as Mitchell Trubisky may have played himself into coach Matt Nagy's doghouse for the last time. Nick Foles' comeback win might have owed more to the opposition than his own performance (I mean, it's what the Falcons do, apparently), but it still bought him a massive amount of goodwill from both his coach and from a Chicago fanbase that doesn't want to see another strong season from the defense get wasted. Foles isn't the long-term answer, but then, neither is Trubisky.
The Skinny
IND injuries: WR Michael Pittman (IR, leg)
CHI injuries: RB Tarik Cohen (IR, knee), LB Khalil Mack (questionable, knee)
IND DFS targets: Colts DST $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (third in sack rate, first in INT%)
CHI DFS targets: Darnell Mooney $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (IND 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
IND DFS fades: Philip Rivers $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (CHI second in QB rating against, first in TD% allowed), T.Y. Hilton $5,300 DK / $5,900 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)
CHI DFS fades: Nick Foles $5,700 DK / $7,100 FD (IND first in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against), Allen Robinson $6,700 DK / $7,000 FD (IND fourth in DVOA vs. WR1), Jimmy Graham $3,800 DK / $5,300 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: IND is 32nd in third-down conversions at 30.3 percent; CHI is second in third-down defense at 31.0 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 16 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Jonathan Taylor runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Rivers throws for 250 yards. David Montgomery picks up 80 combined yards and a score. Foles throws for 230 yards and TDs to Robinson and Anthony Miller. Bears, 21-19
Arizona at Carolina (+3.5), o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Kyler Murray's luck ran out against the Lions, as his mistakes finally outweighed his big plays. He's run for a TD in every game this season, but also thrown at least one pick in every game, and the Cards' up-tempo offense won't help much if he keeps giving the rock to the opposition. He also might want to try getting someone other than DeAndre Hopkins involved consistently, though if Hopkins ends up inactive due to an ankle issue, Murray won't have much choice. The Panthers stole one from the Chargers last week, and coach Matt Rhule deserves credit for getting a roster almost completely bereft of talent to keep battling and believing in itself. Teddy Bridgewater's been exactly the Drew Brees knockoff he was expected to be, completing 74 percent of his passes, while Mike Davis has kept the running game going in Christian McCaffrey's absence. The odds are very good Bridgewater will win the turnover battle between the two QBs; the question is whether the rest of the team can do something with those extra chances.
The Skinny
ARI injuries: WR Hopkins (questionable, ankle), WR Christian Kirk (questionable, groin), C Mason Cole (questionable, hamstring), S Budda Baker (out, thumb)
CAR injuries: LT Russell Okung (questionable, groin), LG Dennis Daley (questionable, ankle), LB Tahir Whitehead (questionable, thigh)
ARI DFS targets: Kenyan Drake $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Cardinals DST $3,600 DK / $3,800 FD (fifth in sack rate)
CAR DFS targets: Mike Davis $5,700 DK / $6,300 FD (ARI 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Robby Anderson $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD (ARI 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ARI DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Curtis Samuel $4,800 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR3)
Key stat: CAR is t-13th in third-down conversions at 44.4 percent; ARI is first in third-down defense at 28.6 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Drake breaks out with 150 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Murray runs for another TD and throws for 260 yards and two more scores, hitting Andy Isabella and Larry Fitzgerald, but he also tosses a pick-six to Tre Boston. Davis racks up 110 combined yards and a TD. Bridgewater throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns to Anderson and D.J. Moore (who tops 100 yards). Cardinals, 35-34
N.Y. Giants (+13) at L.A. Rams, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
So, umm, I'm looking at the schedules, and I'm having a hard time seeing where either the Giants or the Jets get their first win. They both play host to the Cardinals (NYJ in Week 5, NYG in Week 14), so maybe one of those, and divisional games against the likes of the Dolphins or the Name Redacteds can always get wacky, but it's entirely possible they'll head into their mutual Week 11 bye both at 0-10, at which point the back page of the Daily News is going to have ditched the puns for Les Miz lyrics — because, let's face it, there will be a lot of angry men in New York at that point. As for Big Blue specifically, Devonta Freeman's debut with the Giants last week went even worse than expected, and Daniel Jones has struggled, albeit against a tough early schedule. As more key players go down with lower-body injuries that absolutely, positively have nothing to do with that new turf at MetLife Stadium, it's going to get that much more difficult for the Giants to climb out of their hole. The Rams, on the other hand, are looking more like their high-octane selves, hanging 32 points on a stout Bills defense in Buffalo, even if it wasn't quite enough against Josh Allen. Jared Goff has a 9.6 YPA, Darrell Henderson is locking down the No. 1 RB role ... it's 2018 all over again. Maybe Sean McVay isn't the next Chip Kelly after all.
The Skinny
NYG injuries: S Jabrill Peppers (out, ankle), S Julian Love (questionable, knee)
LAR injuries: RB Cam Akers, (out, ribs)
NYG DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Darrell Henderson $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (NYG 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Josh Reynolds $4,100 DK / $4,600 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
NYG DFS fades: Evan Engram $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS fades: none
Key stat: LAR are second in third-down conversions at 56.4 percent; NYG are 32nd in third-down defense at 58.1 percent
Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Freeman leads the NYG backfield with 60 yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Golden Tate and Damion Ratley, but gets picked off twice. Henderson piles up 140 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, while Malcolm Brown also punches in a short score. Goff throws for 320 yards and two more TDs, hitting Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee. Rams, 37-14
Buffalo at Las Vegas (+3), o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Welp. The Bills are suddenly the only undefeated team left in the AFC who hasn't had their Week 4 game postponed by COVID, which feels like a bad omen, especially when you see stories like this. I'm sure nothing bad can happen to the team in Vegas though, right? Josh Allen's been a surprise early season MVP candidate, and while his fumblitis remains an issue — he's put three balls on the carpet in three games this year, and lost nine of 25 fumbles in only 31 career games — if he keeps throwing for more than 300 yards and multiple TDs every week, he can probably get away with it. The Raiders have looked solid, even if they didn't put up much of a fight in Foxboro against the Patriots, and Derek Carr has been more than OK, completing 74 percent of his passes with a 6:0 TD:INT, downright Breesian numbers. That he's done it without much in the way of receiving help makes his efforts even more remarkable, but other teams will have taken note of what happened when the Pats blanketed Darren Waller. Somebody else needs to step up for this offense, and this team, to elevate themselves above just all right.
The Skinny
BUF injuries: RB Zack Moss (questionable, toe)
LV injuries: WR Henry Ruggs (doubtful, hamstring), WR Bryan Edwards (out, ankle), RT Trent Brown (doubtful, calf), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (questionable, pectoral), S Johnathan Abram (questionable, shoulder)
BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $5,900 DK / $6,000 FD (LV 32nd in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
LV DFS targets: Darren Waller $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD (BUF 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)
BUF DFS fades: Cole Beasley $4,700 DK / $5,100 FD (LV second in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS fades: none
Key stat: LV is fourth in third-down conversions at 51.4 percent; BUF is 19th in third-down defense at 45.5 percent
Weather forecast: indoor
The Scoop: Singletary bangs out 90 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to John Brown. Josh Jacobs rumbles for 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Waller and Nelson Agholor. Raiders, 24-23
Philadelphia (+7) at San Francisco, o/u 45.0
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
I saw some snide comments tossed Doug Pederson's way after last week's tie when he didn't attempt a desperation field goal on Philly's last possession in overtime, but I can't really blame him. The odds of Jake Elliott leaving it short, and then Joe Burrow doing something memorable, seemed higher than the odds of Elliott making a kick that would have been a few yards longer than his career best of 61. Regardless, the Eagles are still winless, and deservedly so. Their offense has been stagnant, and their defense has been vulnerable, which isn't a great combination. The absurd numbers of injuries to their wide receivers and tight ends is certainly a factor, but the real story has been the collapse of an offensive line used to reserving a spot near the top of the overall rankings every year. The unit just lost another starter in Jason Peters after he delivered a fair impersonation of a turnstile against the Bengals, so that might be addition by subtraction at left tackle. They aren't going to get any sympathy from the Niners on the injury front, though. Despite a blizzard of strains and tears all over the roster, they're still 2-1 and in the thick of the NFC West race as coach Kyle Shanahan elevates the "next man up" philosophy to an art form. New QB? No problem. Rotating cast of RBs? No problem. One DB after another breaking down? You guessed it, no problem. Maybe at some point all those injuries do become a problem, but it probably won't be at home against a team nearly as mangled as they are.
The Skinny
PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (out, foot), WR DeSean Jackson (out, hamstring), WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (doubtful, calf), TE Dallas Goedert (IR, ankle), LT Jason Peters (IR, toe), CB Avonte Maddox (out. ankle)
SF injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (out, ankle), RB Raheem Mostert (out, knee), TE Jordan Reed (IR, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, quad), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (out, hamstring), CB Emmanuel Moseley (out, concussion)
PHI DFS targets: Eagles DST $2,600 DK / $4,200 FD (fourth in sack rate)
SF DFS targets: Brandon Aiyuk $5,000 DK / $5,100 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), George Kittle $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
PHI DFS fades: Carson Wentz $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD (SF third in QB rating against, first in YPA allowed, second in TD% allowed), Zach Ertz (SF first in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: none
Key stat: PHI is t-20th in red-zone conversions at 57.1 percent; SF is t-sixth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Miles Sanders picks up 70 yards and a TD. Carson Wentz throws for 230 yards and a score to John Hightower but also tosses a pick-six to Jason Verrett. Jerick McKinnon runs for 80 yards and a touchdown. Nick Mullens throws for 280 yards and two TDs, both to Kittle (who tops 100 yards). 49ers, 34-17
Denver at N.Y. Jets (+1), o/u 39.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Oh yay, just what everyone wants to watch on a Thursday night, a battle of 0-3 teams. I'd say one of these squads will have to come away with a win despite themselves, but the Eagles and Bengals demonstrated quite ably last week how to avoid that scenario. Both the Broncos and Jets are missing a lot of keys players, and Denver will be turning to its third QB of the season in Brett Rypien (and potentially its fourth in Blake Bortles if things get really ugly). Rypien put together a decent showing in his NFL debut during garbage time against Tampa Bay, but the undrafted rookie out of Boise State may not have much more than good genes going for him. At least he has more than one healthy target he can trust. Sam Darnold might get Jamison Crowder back for this one, but the pickings get awfully slim after that, and a backfield led by Frank Gore probably won't offer much relief. It's kind of amazing Adam Gase still has a job given the Jets' poor start (their minus-57 point differential is more than two converted TDs worse than the team in 31st place, the Giants) but hey, Dan Quinn hasn't been fired yet either, and I wonder if front offices just don't want the hassle of replacing someone during the year given the added COVID complications.
The Skinny
DEN injuries: QB Drew Lock (out, shoulder), RB Phillip Lindsay (questionable, toe), DE Jurrell Casey (IR, biceps)
NYJ injuries: WR Breshad Perriman (out, ankle), WR Crowder (questionable, hamstring), WR Chris Hogan (questionable, ribs), LT Mekhi Becton (questionable, shoulder), RT George Fant (questionable, concussion)
DEN DFS targets: Brett Rypien $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA), Jerry Jeudy $5,300 DK / $5,600 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), KJ Hamler $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Noah Fant $5,800 DK / $5,900 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
NYJ DFS targets: Braxton Berrios $4,600 DK / $5,900 FD (DEN 23rd in DVOA vs. WR2)
DEN DFS fades: Melvin Gordon $6,900 DK / $7,100 FD (NYJ third in rushing DVOA)
NYJ DFS fades: none
Key stat: NYJ are 31st in third-down conversions at 32.4 percent; DEN is 10th in third-down defense at 38.6 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gordon gains 70 combined yards. Rypien throws for 210 yards and a TD to Jeudy. Gore grinds out 50 yards. Darnold throws for a season-high 230 yards and touchdowns to Berrios and Chris Herndon, but gets sacked four times and loses a key fumble on one of them. Broncos, 16-14
Last week's record:8-7-1, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 30-17-1, 23-24-1 ATS, 20-28 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 823-499-6, 616-661-51 ATS, 513-539-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
