ADP Analysis: July ADP Comparison Between DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters

ADP Analysis: July ADP Comparison Between DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

With Jets training camp well underway and others starting up this week, it's time for the latest versions of my monthly ADP articles. Last week I looked at how best-ball ADPs had changed between June 20 and July 20, including the impact of recent developments involving Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins. There wasn't a ton of NFL news during that time between offseason programs and training camp, but some of it involved big-name players and other ADP shifts occurred for more subtle reasons. In other words, plenty to discuss, even after one of the slowest parts of the NFL news cycle all year.

Now we'll compare ADPs between the three sites (DK, UD, DR) – rather than changes over time – to get an idea of general draft patterns on each platform and identify some players that tend to be significantly cheaper or more expensive on a given site. I think it's interesting data even for fantasy players who draft exclusively on a single platform, though it's undoubtedly more helpful for those using two or more.

The goal here is to figure out where it's cheapest and most expensive to draft certain players, on average, be it due to positional trends or simply an individual whose ADP is highly varied between the three sites.

If you just want to see the numbers, there's a chart at the bottom of this page that shows ADPs from each of the three aforementioned sites, along with the difference between a player's ADP on one site and his average from the other two. 

Differences mean much less in the later rounds, especially because Underdog drafts are 24 picks shorter than those on DK/Drafters. I've shortened the list of players to 225 this week, in part because differences after that mostly are just about differences in accounting for undrafted players on each site.

Another note of caution: scoring and roster differences between the sites often don't explain the ADP gaps we see and sometimes are even counterintuitive (e.g. a guy who should be more valuable in half-PPR than he is in full PPR nonetheless goes later on UD than on DK and Drafters).

Roster/scoring differences to note before we started:

  1. Underdog is half PPR; DraftKings and Drafters are full PPR.
  2. DK awards three-point bonuses at 100 rushing/receiving yards or 300 passing yards.
  3. Drafters subtracts two points for an INT or lost fumble. DK subtracts one point. UD subtracts one for an INT or two for a lost fumble. 
  4. UD's default is 18 rounds. On DK and Drafters, it's 20.
  5. DK and UD use a playoff system, which amplifies the importance of Weeks 15-17. Drafters' biggest tourneys are simply based on total points throughout the season.

Now, let's look at the key ADP trends as of late July...

General ADP Trends

From a bird's-eye view, inter-site trends haven't changed much since May (or June). The key points?

  1. QBs and TEs still tend to go earliest on DraftKings, at nearly every stage of drafts. 
  2. Results from Underdog and Drafters are still much more similar to each other than those from DraftKings. 
  3. Users on Underdog and Drafters are more aggressive taking WRs, at nearly every stage.

  

Relative Values on Each Site

Underdog

Relatively Underpriced on UD

I usually pick at least two or three RBs through the first six rounds on Underdog, as they tend to go later (and WRs earlier) even though it's only half PPR, not full. Potential value stacks here include Lawrence-Kirk-Engram and Cousins-Osborn.

    

Relatively Overpriced on UD

      

DraftKings 

Relatively Underpriced on DK

Herbert and Jackson still go slightly earlier on DK than the other two sites, but below you'll see that the difference is much smaller for those two and Patrick Mahomes (-2.9) than it is for the other top quarterbacks. Also note that many of the WRs who will catch passes from those guys are on the list above, while a couple others (OBJ and Kadarius) are on the overpriced list below. ADPs on DK favor a Mahomes-Moore-Rice stack, a Herbert-Johnston stack or a Jackson-Bateman-Flowers stack.

Other than that, my biggest takeaway here is the same as in previous months — DK drafts often present good value on WRs in Rounds 5-8 and good value on RBs in Rounds 9-13. There's also plenty of WR value after Round 8, of course, with many young receivers in particular going about a round later on DK than the other two sites. Other stacks that tend to be cheapest here include Richardson-Pierce and Watson-Moore.

   

Relatively Overpriced on DK

Relative preference for TEs/QBs over WRs seems to be even more of a thing with young players. People on Underdog and especially Drafters take young WRs aggressively, but when it comes to young players at other positions — especially QB/TE — DraftKings' users are the most aggressive. 

In this case, the people on DK might have it right. I understand why low-end QBs and TEs have little value in Underdog's 18-round format, but I'm not sure why Drafters' users are so low on rookies like Mayer (ADP 220.1) and Stroud (190.8) relative to late-round veterans. Whatever the case, they tend to be available a round or two later on DK.

   

Drafters

Relatively Underpriced on Drafters

Allen-Kincaid and Fields-Kmet stand out as value stacks here. For whatever reason, TE2 and TE3 types tend to come off the board a bit slower on Drafters compared to the other two sites. 

        

Relatively Overpriced on Drafters

          

  AVG ADPUD 7/20UD ΔDK 7/20DK ΔDR 7/20DR Δ
1Justin JeffersonWR1.11.1-0.051.20.11.10.0
2Ja'Marr ChaseWR2.12.10.002.20.22.0-0.2
3Christian McCaffreyRB3.73.80.203.2-0.74.00.5
4Cooper KuppWR4.14.20.104.60.73.6-0.8
5Tyreek HillWR5.04.6-0.655.50.75.00.0
6Travis KelceTE5.96.40.755.3-0.96.00.2
7Austin EkelerRB7.47.60.357.2-0.27.3-0.1
8Stefon DiggsWR8.17.8-0.458.40.58.10.0
9A.J. BrownWR9.29.1-0.159.40.39.1-0.2
10Bijan RobinsonRB10.19.9-0.2510.60.89.7-0.6
11CeeDee LambWR11.110.9-0.2511.40.510.9-0.3
12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR12.813.61.2512.5-0.412.2-0.9
13Davante AdamsWR13.614.10.7513.70.113.0-0.9
14Nick ChubbRB14.314.2-0.1513.9-0.614.80.8
15Garrett WilsonWR14.313.1-1.8515.41.614.50.3
16Jaylen WaddleWR16.816.3-0.7518.01.816.1-1.1
17Jonathan TaylorRB18.717.3-2.0520.32.518.4-0.4
18Saquon BarkleyRB19.320.21.3519.60.518.1-1.8
19Patrick MahomesQB20.721.20.7018.8-2.922.22.2
20Tony PollardRB20.920.6-0.4021.81.420.2-1.0
21Chris OlaveWR21.419.3-3.1024.14.120.7-1.0
22Derrick HenryRB21.722.41.0019.8-2.923.01.9
23DeVonta SmithWR22.021.5-0.8025.14.619.5-3.8
24Jalen HurtsQB22.525.54.4517.4-7.724.73.3
25Tee HigginsWR24.023.5-0.7025.82.822.6-2.1
26Josh AllenQB26.827.91.6523.0-5.729.54.1
27DK MetcalfWR28.228.20.0030.02.726.4-2.7
28Rhamondre StevensonRB28.226.8-2.1529.01.228.91.0
29Josh JacobsRB28.629.71.6028.60.027.6-1.6
30Mark AndrewsTE29.929.5-0.6029.8-0.130.40.8
31Breece HallRB31.730.4-1.9033.32.531.3-0.5
32Keenan AllenWR32.335.75.1032.30.028.9-5.1
33Calvin RidleyWR33.032-1.5534.01.533.10.1
34Lamar JacksonQB34.534.60.1033.5-1.635.51.5
35Deebo SamuelWR35.034.6-0.6036.62.433.8-1.8
36Amari CooperWR35.233.3-2.8038.04.334.2-1.5
37Jahmyr GibbsRB36.5382.3035.1-2.136.3-0.3
38Jerry JeudyWR39.139.40.4540.52.137.4-2.6
39Najee HarrisRB40.038.2-2.7041.92.939.9-0.1
40DeAndre HopkinsWR41.943.82.8042.40.739.6-3.5
41Travis EtienneRB42.141.7-0.6539.2-4.445.55.1
42Joe BurrowQB42.645.34.0036.6-9.146.05.1
43Christian WatsonWR44.140.9-4.7549.07.442.3-2.7
44Joe MixonRB45.046.11.6041.7-5.047.33.4
45Christian KirkWR45.849.96.1545.6-0.341.9-5.9
46Mike WilliamsWR46.545.6-1.3047.71.946.1-0.6
47Terry McLaurinWR46.744-4.1052.07.944.2-3.8
48Drake LondonWR47.343.3-6.0054.611.044.0-5.0
49Justin FieldsQB48.849.51.0545.0-5.751.94.7
50T.J. HockensonTE49.2524.2046.3-4.449.30.1
51DJ MooreWR49.347.8-2.2051.83.848.2-1.6
52Aaron JonesRB52.153.82.5050.4-2.652.20.1
53Kenneth WalkerRB52.452.90.7549.4-4.554.93.8
54Justin HerbertQB53.454.61.7551.3-3.254.41.5
55Brandon AiyukWR55.351.2-6.1058.95.555.70.7
56Diontae JohnsonWR56.456.1-0.5061.57.651.7-7.1
57Alexander MattisonRB57.9603.1054.8-4.759.01.6
58Chris GodwinWR58.158.91.2061.34.854.1-6.0
59J.K. DobbinsRB59.756.9-4.2062.03.560.20.8
60George KittleTE59.961.21.9056.5-5.262.13.3
61Marquise BrownWR61.459.5-2.8565.35.859.4-3.0
62Tyler LockettWR62.963.61.1064.62.660.4-3.7
63Cam AkersRB63.166.14.5058.7-6.664.52.1
64Trevor LawrenceQB63.867.14.9060.4-5.264.00.3
65Miles SandersRB66.765.4-2.0066.4-0.568.42.5
66Mike EvansWR68.067.9-0.2070.63.865.6-3.7
67Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR68.762.5-9.2575.710.667.8-1.3
68Michael PittmanWR69.067.3-2.5072.85.866.8-3.3
69Kadarius ToneyWR69.871.83.0067.0-4.270.61.2
70Kyle PittsTE70.469-2.1072.43.069.8-0.9
71Dameon PierceRB70.670.1-0.7569.9-1.071.81.8
72Dallas GoedertTE73.174.82.5068.7-6.675.94.2
73D'Andre SwiftRB73.678.26.9065.4-12.377.25.4
74Gabe DavisWR74.274.91.1074.1-0.173.5-1.0
75Jordan AddisonWR75.170.9-6.3578.14.476.41.9
76Jahan DotsonWR76.073.3-4.0084.312.570.3-8.5
77George PickensWR77.776.4-2.0080.54.276.3-2.2
78Treylon BurksWR77.978.10.3086.613.169.0-13.4
79Darren WallerTE78.680.32.5574.7-5.880.83.3
80James ConnerRB80.284.25.9575.1-7.781.41.8
81Rachaad WhiteRB80.682.32.6078.6-3.080.80.4
82Quentin JohnstonWR82.479.5-4.3588.79.579.0-5.1
83David MontgomeryRB82.878.4-6.6087.46.982.6-0.3
84Deshaun WatsonQB83.883.90.1583.7-0.183.80.0
85Brandin CooksWR84.283.7-0.7586.73.882.2-3.0
86Isiah PachecoRB86.187.31.8584.3-2.686.60.8
87Dalvin CookRB87.791.15.1080.7-10.591.35.4
88Javonte WilliamsRB90.090.10.2090.71.189.1-1.3
89Elijah MooreWR90.787.1-5.4097.09.588.0-4.1
90Tua TagovailoaQB91.792.30.9086.0-8.696.87.6
91Alvin KamaraRB92.594.42.8083.7-13.399.510.5
92Rashod BatemanWR92.788.1-6.90103.616.486.4-9.4
93Courtland SuttonWR93.596.64.6594.41.489.5-6.0
94Evan EngramTE93.597.66.1586.6-10.496.34.2
95James CookRB93.895.11.9093.2-1.093.2-1.0
96Zay FlowersWR94.090.6-5.15100.69.890.9-4.7
97Michael ThomasWR94.393.7-0.9595.51.893.8-0.8
98Antonio GibsonRB99.698.9-1.10104.57.395.5-6.2
99Dak PrescottQB99.7106.39.8592.2-11.3100.71.5
100AJ DillonRB103.0102.2-1.15106.95.999.8-4.8
101Samaje PerineRB103.8106.64.15103.3-0.8101.6-3.3
102Kirk CousinsQB104.0112.813.2596.3-11.5102.8-1.8
103Odell BeckhamWR105.6111.18.2599.5-9.2106.20.9
104Zach CharbonnetRB105.8101.8-5.95112.19.5103.4-3.5
105Anthony RichardsonQB105.9104.2-2.55107.01.7106.50.9
106David NjokuTE106.1106.91.20102.5-5.4108.94.2
107Jameson WilliamsWR106.997.2-14.60113.49.7110.24.9
108Skyy MooreWR108.3101.4-10.40123.923.499.7-13.0
109Daniel JonesQB109.2114.27.55106.1-4.6107.2-3.0
110Allen LazardWR109.6110.81.85108.7-1.3109.2-0.5
111Pat FreiermuthTE110.3107.7-3.95110.30.0113.04.0
112Brian RobinsonRB110.8111.91.70104.5-9.4115.97.7
113Tyler BoydWR111.5103.5-12.05116.87.9114.34.1
114Geno SmithQB112.1115.65.20108.7-5.1112.1-0.1
115Rashaad PennyRB115.8110.1-8.50122.810.6114.4-2.0
116Romeo DoubsWR118.8120.62.70124.48.4111.4-11.1
117Nico CollinsWR118.8118.1-1.10122.96.1115.5-5.0
118Devon AchaneRB118.9118.1-1.25120.82.8117.9-1.5
119Zay JonesWR119.4121.53.20115.0-6.6121.63.3
120Damien HarrisRB119.8117.1-4.00129.414.5112.8-10.5
121Khalil HerbertRB120.2119-1.75118.5-2.5123.04.3
122Jerick McKinnonRB121.7125.15.05114.2-11.3125.96.3
123Jared GoffQB123.2131.212.05116.1-10.6122.2-1.4
124Aaron RodgersQB123.4125.73.45113.2-15.3131.311.9
125JuJu Smith-SchusterWR123.7116.3-11.10128.16.6126.74.5
126Jamaal WilliamsRB125.2127.63.55117.9-11.0130.27.4
127Jakobi MeyersWR125.6125.4-0.25131.69.0119.7-8.8
128Rondale MooreWR125.6128.94.95126.00.6121.9-5.6
129Russell WilsonQB126.8134.211.05123.0-5.8123.3-5.3
130Elijah MitchellRB127.3123.5-5.65131.05.6127.30.0
131Dalton SchultzTE128.1138.415.50121.4-10.0124.4-5.5
132Greg DulcichTE134.0130.8-4.75131.5-3.7139.68.4
133Chigoziem OkonkwoTE134.5131.1-5.10136.73.3135.71.8
134Darnell MooneyWR134.5127.7-10.20144.815.5131.0-5.3
135Dalton KincaidTE134.7134.1-0.90126.0-13.1144.014.0
136Michael GallupWR136.3135.1-1.85141.47.6132.5-5.8
137Jaylen WarrenRB136.3134.9-2.15140.56.3133.6-4.1
138K.J. OsbornWR139.5145.69.20135.4-6.1137.4-3.1
139Tank BigsbyRB139.6138.9-1.05142.34.1137.6-3.0
140Tyler HigbeeTE140.6144.45.70138.5-3.2138.9-2.5
141Adam ThielenWR142.5142.90.55139.2-5.0145.54.4
142Derek CarrQB143.5149.69.15135.1-12.6145.83.5
143Rashee RiceWR144.2145.11.40151.010.3136.4-11.7
144Van JeffersonWR145.9137.4-12.75160.622.1139.7-9.3
145Tyler AllgeierRB146.2145.2-1.55146.1-0.2147.41.8
146Gerald EverettTE147.6149.73.15144.2-5.1148.92.0
147Jonathan MingoWR149.0141.7-10.90156.411.2148.8-0.3
148Cole KmetTE150.4149.8-0.95143.5-10.4158.011.4
149Kendre MillerRB150.6143.5-10.60163.619.6144.6-9.0
150Matthew StaffordQB151.5153.42.90145.3-9.3155.76.3
151Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR153.0151.1-2.80151.2-2.7156.65.5
152Jordan LoveQB155.2163.211.95149.5-8.6153.0-3.3
153Devin SingletaryRB156.0155.1-1.40163.911.8149.1-10.4
154DJ CharkWR156.2158.43.30163.010.2147.2-13.5
155Kyler MurrayQB156.9152.1-7.25146.2-16.1172.523.4
156Irv SmithTE157.1156.3-1.25154.8-3.5160.34.8
157Donovan Peoples-JonesWR157.6160.54.40157.80.4154.4-4.8
158Isaiah HodginsWR158.2174.724.70149.4-13.3150.6-11.5
159Roschon JohnsonRB158.3151.3-10.55166.211.8157.5-1.3
160Alec PierceWR159.3154.1-7.80171.017.6152.8-9.8
161Sam LaPortaTE161.0165.46.55152.3-13.1165.46.5
162Kenny PickettQB162.2169.410.85155.4-10.2161.7-0.7
163Kenneth GainwellRB162.2165.75.30167.88.5153.0-13.8
164D'Onta ForemanRB162.8165.64.15152.4-15.7170.511.5
165Taysom HillTE164.5157.6-10.40159.2-8.0176.818.4
166Rashid ShaheedWR165.9160.8-7.65174.713.2162.2-5.6
167Brock PurdyQB165.9171.27.95161.2-7.1165.3-0.9
168Jerome FordRB167.3164.7-3.90173.79.6163.5-5.7
169Raheem MostertRB167.4171.96.75156.5-16.4173.89.6
170Marvin MimsWR169.1158.8-15.45178.313.8170.21.6
171Curtis SamuelWR170.4172.63.25168.5-2.9170.2-0.4
172Juwan JohnsonTE171.9173.82.90169.4-3.7172.40.8
173Jayden ReedWR172.3169.6-4.10182.815.7164.6-11.6
174Tyjae SpearsRB173.1171.2-2.80175.23.2172.8-0.4
175Bryce YoungQB173.4180.410.45163.1-15.5176.85.1
176Parris CampbellWR175.8178.13.40184.513.0164.9-16.4
177Ezekiel ElliottRB177.9177.2-1.00177.8-0.1178.61.1
178Dawson KnoxTE178.6179.51.35175.5-4.7180.83.3
179Tim PatrickWR178.8168.2-15.90190.517.6177.7-1.7
180Chuba HubbardRB179.7185.28.30186.610.4167.2-18.7
181Tyquan ThorntonWR180.1175.1-7.45190.014.9175.1-7.5
182Jeff WilsonRB182.2180.8-2.15180.5-2.6185.44.8
183Hunter RenfrowWR184.0187.35.00181.0-4.4183.6-0.6
184Mike GesickiTE184.4186.53.20179.8-6.8186.83.7
185C.J. StroudQB185.919310.65173.9-18.0190.87.4
186Sam HowellQB186.8196.714.85180.3-9.8183.4-5.1
187John MetchieWR187.9183-7.35193.07.7187.7-0.3
188Khalil ShakirWR187.9183.5-6.65199.016.6181.3-9.9
189Gus EdwardsRB189.4187.1-3.45190.71.9190.41.5
190DeVante ParkerWR192.6188.8-5.65198.89.4190.1-3.7
191Tyler ConklinTE194.0190.6-5.15192.9-1.7198.66.8
192Leonard FournetteRB194.3197.14.20203.413.7182.4-17.9
193Ty ChandlerRB195.0195.50.70201.69.8188.0-10.6
194Jalin HyattWR195.3197.63.45189.4-8.8198.95.4
195Chase BrownRB196.5195.5-1.45195.5-1.4198.42.9
196Hayden HurstTE197.4197.4-0.05194.9-3.8200.03.8
197Mac JonesQB197.8206.312.80189.4-12.6197.6-0.3
198Cordarrelle PattersonRB199.2202.34.60189.5-14.6205.910.0
199Darius SlaytonWR200.4201.61.75206.79.4193.0-11.2
200Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB200.6202.83.30199.9-1.0199.1-2.3
201Desmond RidderQB202.0206.36.40195.4-10.0204.43.5
202Ryan TannehillQB203.0203.40.65198.8-6.3206.75.6
203Richie JamesWR203.2211.812.85197.2-9.1200.7-3.8
204Robert WoodsWR205.1204.1-1.55213.312.3198.0-10.7
205Michael MayerTE206.4210.76.50188.3-27.1220.120.6
206Zamir WhiteRB206.4201.5-7.40211.17.0206.70.4
207Trey McBrideTE206.5199.3-10.85215.513.5204.8-2.6
208Isaiah LikelyTE206.7202.7-5.95202.9-5.7214.411.6
209Jimmy GaroppoloQB206.8211.77.40198.8-12.0209.84.6
210Pierre StrongRB206.8210.35.25211.77.3198.4-12.6
211Jake FergusonTE208.4207.9-0.70208.1-0.4209.11.1
212Mecole HardmanWR208.5207.3-1.85211.13.8207.2-2.0
213Wan'Dale RobinsonWR209.6201.2-12.60216.510.4211.12.3
214Luke MusgraveTE209.6206.6-4.50208.6-1.5213.66.0
215Terrace MarshallWR209.9206.9-4.55221.417.2201.5-12.7
216Joshua PalmerWR210.1212.73.85205.9-6.3211.82.5
217Kareem HuntRB211.5209.9-2.45212.41.3212.31.2
218Chase ClaypoolWR215.1210.6-6.75218.75.4216.01.4
219Baker MayfieldQB215.8214.7-1.70212.0-5.8220.87.5
220Noah FantTE216.0212.4-5.45213.8-3.3221.98.8
221Marvin JonesWR217.2211.7-8.25219.33.2220.65.1
222Josh DownsWR218.2212.6-8.45222.86.9219.31.6
223Allen RobinsonWR219.0213.9-7.65225.49.6217.7-2.0
224Deuce VaughnRB219.2215.4-5.75217.7-2.3224.68.0
225Greg DortchWR219.3215.1-6.35216.5-4.3226.410.6

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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