Farm Futures: Ranking the Rookies 3.0

The first version of this article originally appeared in the 2020 RotoWire Baseball Magazine. Version 2.0 was released March 2. This third version has been massively overhauled to reflect the latest news and the shortened season.

The top 400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2020. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect you are investing in.

TIER ONE - Impact Hitters

1. Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

2. Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers

3. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

Robert moves ahead of Lux due to Lux's absence from camp, which we have to assume is coronavirus-related until we hear otherwise. I'm keeping this tier together because all three have impact potential, and I'd rate them similarly on a per plate appearance basis, but Robert is the clear top guy at the moment because he is the best bet to lead this group in plate appearances —I'm chasing plate appearances above all else with position players this year. Carlson could open the year as an everyday player, which would make him one of the best bargains in drafts, but it's also possible they manipulate his service time by keeping him at satellite camp for seven days to gain an extra year of team control. Carlson and Lux are helped slightly by the designated hitter coming to the National League, not because they will see much, if any, time at DH, but because it's an extra spot for guys like Tyler O'Neill, Max Muncy and Justin Turner.

TIER TWO - Mixed-League Pitchers

4. A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics

5. Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

6. Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers

7. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

8. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates

9. Kyle Wright, RHP, Braves

10. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Athletics

11. Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros

12. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees

The top two guys in this tier from just a week ago — Luzardo and Urquidy — either have reportedly tested positive for coronavirus (Luzardo) or likely have the virus due to the fact they have not reported to camp (Urquidy). It's obviously worse for a pitcher to be out with the virus right now than a hitter, because it will affect a pitcher's ability to get stretched out in time for the start of the season. Puk, May, Keller and Wright are locks (in my opinion) to open the year in the majors, while Schmidt is a toss up and Pearson is highly likely to have his service time manipulated. Even if May or Wright don't open the year in the rotation, they are in good situations to earn wins as long relievers/swing men. There has been nothing but positive momentum for Schmidt, and I think if manager Aaron Boone had his way, the team's top pitching prospect (by a mile at this point) would open the year in the majors and perhaps in the rotation. He has firmly entered endgame territory for me in 15-team mixed leagues. 

TIER THREE - Mixed-League Hitters

13. Sean Murphy, C, Athletics

14. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles

15. Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies

16. Evan White, 1B, Mariners

17. Nick Solak, UTIL, Rangers

18. Carter Kieboom, 3B/2B, Nationals

19. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox

20. Jake Fraley, OF, Mariners

With the exception of Madrigal, all of these guys will open the year in the majors and most will open the year as everyday players. Madrigal should be up and playing every day at second base after a week to 10 days. I'm starting to come around to the idea of Evan White being a solid late-round target. He's the No. 31 overall prospect in baseball and will be playing every day, so while we don't know how he will handle jumping from Double-A to the majors, it's possible he will hit the ground running. Hilliard has the highest ceiling in this tier due to his home park and power/speed combination, but it will be very risky starting a player with an uncertain playing time outlook in weekly leagues during a season where you need to maximize plate appearances. 

TIER FOUR - Pitchers For Watch Lists

21. Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays

22. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox

23. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres

24. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers

25. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins

26. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

With Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos yet to report to camp, McKay has a chance to open the year in the rotation, but I don't think he will be deployed like a typical starter all season. His best avenue to fantasy relevance would be to follow an opener so that he can qualify for wins. Kopech is a complete wild card, as he is out indefinitely with a "personal matter" and may not have opened in the rotation anyway. Gore probably needed to bang the door down in camp to open the year in the majors, and it sounds like he will have to wait for an injury or two ahead of him at this point. Manning has been the talk of Tigers camp so far, and reading between the lines, he's clearly ahead of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal (absent from camp) in terms of which Tigers pitching prospect could debut early this season. Sanchez has the important distinction of being on the 40-man roster already, so while he won't open the year in the rotation, he could be one of the first options to step in should injuries strike. Whitley is not on the 40-man roster and has not been mentioned (yet) as a rotation option early in the season — Austin Pruitt and Framber Valdez would theoretically be the fill-ins if Urquidy and Josh James aren't ready. However, he's also the most talented pitching prospect in the game, and whenever it all clicks, he will be a monster, so I'm not taking anything off the table.

TIER FIVE - Hitters For Watch Lists

27. Alec Bohm, 3B/1B, Phillies

28. Jo Adell, OF, Angels

29. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/3B/SS, Rockies

30. Daulton Varsho, C/OF, Diamondbacks

31. Cristian Pache, OF, Braves

32. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

Bohm should take over at first base with Rhys Hoskins shifting to designated hitter at some point, but there is no guarantee it will be right after the Phillies gain an extra year of control, and I'm pessimistic about Bohm hitting for average and power, especially in his first big-league season. Adell should make his MLB debut this season, but it could be in a part-time role. His strikeout rates at Triple-A (32.6%) and in spring training (50%) portend a low batting average, at least in 2020. Rodgers should make the 30-man roster, but he projects to be a bench player, at least initially. It sounds like expanded rosters could expedite Varsho's MLB debut, largely due to his positional versatility. I'm skeptical about how much he would play on the contending Diamondbacks, but if he hits, he'll earn more playing time, obviously. Rodgers, Pache and Hayes are the only players in this tier on 40-man rosters, which is an important variable. With Nick Markakis opting out, we could see Pache in the majors sooner than anticipated because the Braves know that his defense will translate, at the very least. Hayes should debut this season sooner or later, but like with all the hitters in this tier, positive fantasy production is not guaranteed.

TIER SIX - Relievers and Likely Relievers

33. James Karinchak, RHP, Indians

34. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles

35. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros

Karinchak will be the setup man in Cleveland on Opening Day and should be startable in 15-team leagues even if Brad Hand is healthy. Harvey could get the majority of Baltimore's saves, but that might amount to less than one per week. Abreu is intriguing because he could be a multi-inning reliever or even a starter, depending on how healthy the rest of the Astros' starters are Opening Day. I like him best in a multi-inning relief role that could translate to wins and the occasional save.

TIER SEVEN - Deep-League Pitchers

36. Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Angels

37. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners

38. Logan Webb, RHP, Giants

39. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Dodgers

40. Randy Dobnak, RHP, Twins

Sandoval, Sheffield and Webb should all open the year in the rotation, but unless you're in an AL or NL only league, I would only start them in favorable matchups or in two-start weeks if I'm desperate for innings/wins. Gonsolin and Dobnak probably won't open the year in the rotation, but their team context is appealing enough that they would immediately peak my interest if they are moved to the rotation and they could still provide value by compiling wins as long relievers.

TIER EIGHT - Deep-League Hitters

41. Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners

42. Mauricio Dubon, 2B, Giants

43. Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Cubs

44. Abraham Toro, 3B/1B/2B, Astros

45. Edwin Rios, 1B/3B/OF, Dodgers

46. Reese McGuire, C, Blue Jays

47. Ryan Mountcastle, OF/1B, Orioles

48. Jake Cronenworth, 2B/SS/3B, Padres

49. Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS, Padres

I don't expect Lewis, Dubon or Mateo to be productive hitters this season. That said, it's only 60 games, so anything can happen, and Lewis and Dubon should play almost every day. Mateo won't play every day, but could still steal 8-10 bases this season in a part-time role. Hoerner would need everyday at-bats to be interesting, given his lack of impact power or speed. Toro and Rios are two of my personal favorites, but they probably won't start more than three days per week, barring injuries ahead of them. McGuire is just a low-end C2 in deep mixers. Mountcastle might as well debut this year, but it probably won't be until after a week or two and I don't think his production will move the needle much. Cronenworth is a better hitter than Mateo and may be a better overall player than any other Padres option at the keystone, but it's unclear if he will be given more than a utility role this season.

TIER NINE - Hitters For Watch Lists II

50. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners

51. Joey Bart, C, Giants

52. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/DH, Twins

53. Drew Waters, OF, Braves

54. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels

55. Taylor Trammell, OF, Padres

56. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins

57. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox

58. Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates

59. Trevor Larnach, OF/DH, Twins

60. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

61. Wander Franco, 2B/SS, Rays

62. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Marlins

63. Nolan Jones, 3B, Indians

64. Josh Lowe, OF, Rays

None of the players in this tier are a lock to make their MLB debuts in 2020, but they are all on 60-man rosters, so nothing is impossible. In the coronavirus era, we could see any team's MLB depth tested beyond anything we've seen before. All of these prospects are talented enough to have success right away against big-league pitching, and some of them (Kelenic, Kirilloff, Rodriguez, Franco) are not only talented enough to have success, but talented enough to swing leagues if they somehow see significant playing time this season.

TIER TEN - Relievers and Likely Relievers II

65. Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Dodgers

66. Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Diamondbacks

67. Sam Delaplane, RHP, Mariners

Graterol probably won't provide much fantasy value in 2020, but he's my pick to be the heir apparent to Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning. I don't see Ginkel as a long-term closer, but he could get saves in 2020 if something happens to Archie Bradley. Delaplane could be the Mariners' closer of the future and could make his big-league debut this summer.

TIER ELEVEN - Pitchers For Watch Lists II

68. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

69. Luis Patino, RHP, Padres

70. Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers

71. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

72. Cristian Javier, RHP, Astros

73. James Kaprielian, RHP, Athletics

74. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels

75. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves

76. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves

77. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Athletics

78. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays

79. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners

None of these pitchers are locks to pitch in the majors this year, but undoubtedly some of them will. Gray and McClanahan are good bets to be broken in as relievers initially, but they have long-term upside as starters. The ones on contending teams need injuries ahead of them to get a shot, and it is unclear how the ones on rebuilding teams will be handled.

TIER TWELVE - Deep-League Hitters II

80. Daniel Johnson, OF, Nationals

81. Kevin Cron, 3B/1B, Diamondbacks

82. Randy Arozarena, OF, Cardinals

83. Edward Olivares, OF, Padres

84. Kevin Padlo, 3B/1B/2B, Rays

85. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF, Dodgers

86. DJ Peters, OF, Dodgers

87. Andy Young, 2B/3B/SS, Diamondbacks

88. Bobby Dalbec, 3B/1B, Red Sox

89. Sheldon Neuse, 2B/3B, Athletics

90. Zack Collins, DH, White Sox

91. Jaylin Davis, OF, Giants

92. Willi Castro, SS, Tigers

93. Bobby Bradley, 1B, Indians

94. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds

95. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers

96. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers

97. Andres Gimenez, SS/2B, Mets

98. Justin Williams, OF, Cardinals

99. Isaac Paredes, 3B/2B/SS, Tigers

100. Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Twins

101. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Marlins

102. Taylor Jones, 1B, Astros

103. Wyatt Mathisen, 3B/1B/2B, Diamondbacks

This is a hodgepodge of hitters who are either not very good, firmly blocked, not big-league ready, or some combination of the three. Johnson, Padlo, McKinstry, Peters, Williams, Jones are the ones I most want to see get a shot, but they are all pretty buried on the depth chart at the moment.

TIER THIRTEEN - Deep-League Pitchers II

104. Brady Singer, RHP, Royals

105. David Peterson, LHP, Mets

106. Devin Smeltzer, LHP, Twins

107. Joe Palumbo, LHP, Rangers

108. Anthony Kay, LHP, Blue Jays

109. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Twins

110. Justin Dunn, RHP, Mariners

With the possible exception of Peterson and Palumbo if they looked promising in a previous MLB start, I wouldn't feel good about starting any of these pitchers against the worst teams in baseball. If just having innings is of value to you, then that's where these guys factor in.