This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
A piece published in The Athletic last week showed fly balls aren't traveling as far as usual. Here's some specific Statcast data:
Year | AEV (mph) | HardHit% | BABIP | Ave Distance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 92.3 | 44.9% | 0.125 | 319.1 |
2022 | 91.9 | 43.2% | 0.125 | 315.7 |
2023 | 92.2 | 44.3% | 0.118 | 317.4 |
2024 | 92.1 | 43.7% | 0.117 | 315.6 |
2025 | 92.7 | 45.8% | 0.114 | 314.9 |
Batters are hitting fly balls harder than the past several seasons, but they aren't getting the same carry. This could be due to the colder-than-usual conditions, yet there's also evidence the seams are wider and that could influence drag (i.e. wind resistance).
Home runs are predictably down. The main takeaway for fantasy purposes is until carry picks up, don't be as fearful streaming in homer-friendly ballparks or worry about high fly ball rates.
This is the time I usually request that rotation questions be addressed to the Probable Pitchers discussion, but it's no longer available so I'll accept rotation queries. And if I don't know the answer, I'll hit up the crew setting them for their input. I'll always know the answer to ranking questions, so please continue to drop those below.
As always, these are preliminary; the final version will be posted around 1 AM ET Monday morning.
Week of June 16 - 22
Mixed League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |||
2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |||
3 | Kris Bubic | KC | @TEX, @SD | Walks edging up | ||
4 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH |
A piece published in The Athletic last week showed fly balls aren't traveling as far as usual. Here's some specific Statcast data:
Year | AEV (mph) | HardHit% | BABIP | Ave Distance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 92.3 | 44.9% | 0.125 | 319.1 |
2022 | 91.9 | 43.2% | 0.125 | 315.7 |
2023 | 92.2 | 44.3% | 0.118 | 317.4 |
2024 | 92.1 | 43.7% | 0.117 | 315.6 |
2025 | 92.7 | 45.8% | 0.114 | 314.9 |
Batters are hitting fly balls harder than the past several seasons, but they aren't getting the same carry. This could be due to the colder-than-usual conditions, yet there's also evidence the seams are wider and that could influence drag (i.e. wind resistance).
Home runs are predictably down. The main takeaway for fantasy purposes is until carry picks up, don't be as fearful streaming in homer-friendly ballparks or worry about high fly ball rates.
This is the time I usually request that rotation questions be addressed to the Probable Pitchers discussion, but it's no longer available so I'll accept rotation queries. And if I don't know the answer, I'll hit up the crew setting them for their input. I'll always know the answer to ranking questions, so please continue to drop those below.
As always, these are preliminary; the final version will be posted around 1 AM ET Monday morning.
Week of June 16 - 22
Mixed League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |||
2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |||
3 | Kris Bubic | KC | @TEX, @SD | Walks edging up | ||
4 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH | |||
5 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | MIN, @STL | A little over his skis, but breakthrough is for real | ||
6 | Dylan Cease | SD | @LAD, KC | |||
7 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @SEA | |||
8 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIA | |||
9 | Max Fried | NYY | BAL | |||
10 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | LAA, BAL | Deserves to be on the All-Star team | ||
11 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | BOS, @CHC | |||
12 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | BAL, DET | |||
13 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | NYM | |||
14 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | KC | |||
15 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | @PIT | |||
16 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | BAL | |||
17 | Joe Ryan | MIN | MIL | |||
18 | Robbie Ray | SF | CLE, BOS | We're getting the Dr. Jekyll version | ||
19 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | NYM | |||
20 | Shane Smith | CWS | STL, @TOR | Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in mop-up, not challenging for ROY | ||
21 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | SEA | |||
22 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |||
23 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | Padres roughed him up a bit last week | ||
24 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | LAA | |||
25 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CIN | This is about the time he went on his stellar run last season | ||
26 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @CIN | I admit, I was wr… I was wro… I was wrong | ||
27 | Zach Eflin | BAL | @TB, @NYY | |||
28 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | ARI, CWS | |||
29 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |||
30 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | @PIT | Regression kicking in | ||
31 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | ARI | |||
32 | David Peterson | NYM | @ATL, @PHI | Solid ranking considering tough road pair | ||
33 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @LAA | |||
34 | Spencer Strider | ATL | @MIA | |||
35 | Ben Brown | CHC | MIL | Changeup usage up to between 8-10 percent | ||
36 | Logan Webb | SF | BOS | |||
37 | Lance McCullers | HOU | @ATH, @LAA | |||
38 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @MIA | |||
39 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | MIL | |||
40 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL | |||
41 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | |||
42 | Bryan Woo | SEA | BOS | |||
43 | Seth Lugo | KC | @TEX | |||
44 | David Festa | MIN | @CIN, MIL | Enough hype, let's see some results | 41% | |
45 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | @MIA, NYM | Great call by 56 percent of managers starting him in NFBC last week | ||
46 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | MIN | |||
47 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @TOR | 30% | ||
48 | Andre Pallante | STL | CIN | 4% | ||
49 | Nick Pivetta | SD | KC | Still solid, but has returned to earth | ||
50 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATH | |||
51 | Grant Holmes | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |||
52 | Sonny Gray | STL | @CWS | |||
53 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @MIA | |||
54 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | MIL | |||
55 | Miles Mikolas | STL | CIN | 8% | ||
56 | Cade Horton | CHC | SEA | 0% | 0% | |
57 | Landen Roupp | SF | BOS | |||
58 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SF | |||
59 | Casey Mize | DET | PIT, @TB | Nice pair to snap out of funk | ||
60 | Jose Soriano | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |||
61 | Adrian Houser | CWS | @TOR | 0% | 0% | |
62 | Taj Bradley | TB | BAL | |||
63 | Jose Berrios | TOR | CWS | |||
64 | Noah Cameron | KC | @SD | 0% | 0% | |
65 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PHI, ATL | Great test to learn if recent uptick was from facing PIT and COL | ||
66 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | CLE | |||
67 | Zack Littell | TB | BAL, DET | |||
68 | Jack Leiter | TEX | KC, @PIT | |||
69 | Mitch Keller | PIT | TEX | |||
70 | Aaron Civale | CWS | @TOR | New team, same mediocrity | 21% | |
71 | Dustin May | LAD | WAS | |||
72 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |||
73 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | WAS | 0% | 0% | |
74 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @TOR, @COL | |||
75 | Ben Casparius | LAD | SD, WAS | 36% | ||
76 | Walker Buehler | BOS | @SEA | |||
77 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | PHI | |||
78 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @TOR | 33% | ||
79 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | @SEA, @SF | 47% | ||
80 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | LAA | 0% | 0% | |
81 | Shane Baz | TB | DET | |||
82 | Luis Severino | ATH | HOU | |||
83 | Michael Soroka | WAS | COL, @LAD | 44% | ||
84 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | KC | 6% | ||
85 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @LAD | |||
86 | Luis Castillo | SEA | BOS | |||
87 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @TB | |||
88 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @TB, @NYY | 5% | ||
89 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | COL | 13% | ||
90 | Clay Holmes | NYM | @ATL | |||
91 | Erick Fedde | STL | @CWS | 49% | ||
92 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIN | |||
93 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @DET, TEX | 10% | ||
94 | Trevor Williams | WAS | COL | 0% | 9% | |
95 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||||
96 | Mitch Spence | ATH | HOU | 0% | 14% | |
97 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @SF | |||
98 | George Kirby | SEA | @CHC | |||
99 | Jose Quintana | MIL | @MIN | 22% | ||
100 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | CLE | |||
101 | Bowden Francis | TOR | CWS | 25% | 42% | |
102 | Keider Montero | DET | PIT | 0% | 5% | |
103 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CWS, CIN | |||
104 | Jake Irvin | WAS | COL, @LAD | 33% | ||
105 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CHC | |||
106 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||||
107 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | HOU | |||
108 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | @ATH | |||
109 | Chad Patrick | MIL | @CHC, @MIN | |||
110 | Griffin Canning | NYM | @PHI | |||
111 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | SD | 3% | ||
112 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | @SF | 0% | 0% | |
113 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | MIL | 4% | 25% | |
114 | Charlie Morton | BAL | @TB | 17% | ||
115 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | @SD | 27% | ||
116 | Brady Singer | CIN | @STL | |||
117 | Colton Gordon | HOU | @ATH | 0% | 0% | |
118 | Sean Burke | CWS | STL | 5% | ||
119 | Will Warren | NYY | LAA, BAL | |||
120 | Colin Rea | CHC | SEA | 22% | ||
121 | Mick Abel | PHI | @MIA, NYM | 0% | 0% | |
122 | Wade Miley | CIN | @STL | 0% | 0% | |
123 | Eury Perez | MIA | ATL | 4% | 4% | |
124 | Davis Martin | CWS | STL | 2% | 32% | |
125 | Logan Allen | CLE | @SF | 3% | 30% | |
126 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @TB | 0% | 0% | |
127 | Bryce Elder | ATL | NYM | |||
128 | Quinn Priester | MIL | @MIN | 4% | ||
129 | Brandon Walter | HOU | @LAA | 0% | 0% | |
130 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | @SF, @ATH | 0% | 0% | |
131 | Justin Verlander | SF | CLE | 24% | ||
132 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | @ATH | 6% | 46% | |
133 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @CHC | 0% | 0% | |
134 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | HOU, CLE | 3% | 26% | |
135 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @LAD | 13% | ||
136 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | @NYY, HOU | 0% | 0% | |
137 | Kyle Freeland | COL | @WAS, ARI | 0% | 4% | |
138 | Valente Bellozo | MIA | PHI | 0% | 0% | |
139 | JP Sears | ATH | HOU, CLE | 21% | ||
140 | Chase Dollander | COL | @WAS | 5% | 19% | |
141 | Eric Lauer | TOR | ARI | 0% | 0% | |
142 | German Marquez | COL | @WAS | 0% | 0% | |
143 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | PHI | 3% | 19% | |
144 | Mike Burrows | PIT | TEX | 0% | 0% | |
145 | Paul Blackburn | NYM | @ATL | 0% | 0% | |
146 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @NYY | 0% | 2% | |
147 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @CHC | 0% | 35% | |
148 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @LAD, KC | 3% | 26% | |
149 | Janson Junk | MIA | ATL | 0% | 0% | |
150 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | 46% | ||
151 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @DET | |||
152 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @NYY | 29% | ||
153 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @LAD | 0% | 0% | |
154 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | @WAS, ARI | 0% | 0% | |
155 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | 0% | 0% | |
156 | Matt Sauer | LAD | SD | 0% | 0% |
American League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |
2 | Kris Bubic | KC | @TEX, @SD | Walks edging up |
3 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH | |
4 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @SEA | |
5 | Max Fried | NYY | BAL | |
6 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | LAA, BAL | Deserves to be on the All-Star team |
7 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | BOS, @CHC | |
8 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | BAL, DET | |
9 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | KC | |
10 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | @PIT | |
11 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | BAL | |
12 | Joe Ryan | MIN | MIL | |
13 | Shane Smith | CWS | STL, @TOR | Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in mop-up, not challenging for ROY |
14 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |
15 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | LAA | |
16 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CIN | This is about the time he went on his stellar run last season |
17 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @CIN | I admit, I was wr… I was wro… I was wrong |
18 | Zach Eflin | BAL | @TB, @NYY | |
19 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | ARI, CWS | |
20 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | @PIT | Regression kicking in |
21 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | ARI | |
22 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @LAA | |
23 | Lance McCullers | HOU | @ATH, @LAA | |
24 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | |
25 | Bryan Woo | SEA | BOS | |
26 | Seth Lugo | KC | @TEX | |
27 | David Festa | MIN | @CIN, MIL | Enough hype, let's see some results |
28 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATH | |
29 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SF | |
30 | Casey Mize | DET | PIT, @TB | Nice pair to snap out of funk |
31 | Jose Soriano | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
32 | Adrian Houser | CWS | @TOR | |
33 | Taj Bradley | TB | BAL | |
34 | Jose Berrios | TOR | CWS | |
35 | Noah Cameron | KC | @SD | |
36 | Zack Littell | TB | BAL, DET | |
37 | Jack Leiter | TEX | KC, @PIT | |
38 | Aaron Civale | CWS | @TOR | New team, same mediocrity |
39 | Walker Buehler | BOS | @SEA | |
40 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | @SEA, @SF | |
41 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | LAA | |
42 | Shane Baz | TB | DET | |
43 | Luis Severino | ATH | HOU | |
44 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | KC | |
45 | Luis Castillo | SEA | BOS | |
46 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @TB | |
47 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @TB, @NYY | |
48 | Mitch Spence | ATH | HOU | |
49 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @SF | |
50 | George Kirby | SEA | @CHC | |
51 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | CLE | |
52 | Bowden Francis | TOR | CWS | |
53 | Keider Montero | DET | PIT | |
54 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | HOU | |
55 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | @ATH | |
56 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | @SF | |
57 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | MIL | |
58 | Charlie Morton | BAL | @TB | |
59 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | @SD | |
60 | Colton Gordon | HOU | @ATH | |
61 | Sean Burke | CWS | STL | |
62 | Will Warren | NYY | LAA, BAL | |
63 | AL Reliever | |||
64 | Davis Martin | CWS | STL | |
65 | Logan Allen | CLE | @SF | |
66 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @TB | |
67 | Brandon Walter | HOU | @LAA | |
68 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | @SF, @ATH | |
69 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | @ATH | |
70 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
71 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
72 | JP Sears | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
73 | Eric Lauer | TOR | ARI | |
74 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @NYY | |
75 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @CHC | |
76 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | |
77 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @NYY |
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |
2 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | MIN, @STL | A little over his skis, but break though is for real |
3 | Dylan Cease | SD | @LAD, KC | |
4 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIA | |
5 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | NYM | |
6 | Robbie Ray | SF | CLE, BOS | We're getting the Dr. Jekyll version |
7 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | NYM | |
8 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | SEA | |
9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | Padres roughed him up a bit last week |
10 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |
11 | David Peterson | NYM | @ATL, @PHI | Solid ranking considering tough road pair |
12 | Spencer Strider | ATL | @MIA | |
13 | Ben Brown | CHC | MIL | Changeup usage up to between 8-10 percent |
14 | Logan Webb | SF | BOS | |
15 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @MIA | |
16 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | MIL | |
17 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL | |
18 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | @MIA, NYM | Great call by 56 percent of managers starting him in NFBC last week |
19 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | MIN | |
20 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @TOR | |
21 | Andre Pallante | STL | CIN | |
22 | Nick Pivetta | SD | KC | Still solid, but has returned to earth |
23 | Grant Holmes | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |
24 | Sonny Gray | STL | @CWS | |
25 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @MIA | |
26 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | MIL | |
27 | Miles Mikolas | STL | CIN | |
28 | Cade Horton | CHC | SEA | |
29 | Landen Roupp | SF | BOS | |
30 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PHI, ATL | Great test to learn if recent uptick was from facing PIT and COL |
31 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | CLE | |
32 | Mitch Keller | PIT | TEX | |
33 | Dustin May | LAD | WAS | |
34 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |
35 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | WAS | |
36 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @TOR, @COL | |
37 | Ben Casparius | LAD | SD, WAS | |
38 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | PHI | |
39 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @TOR | |
40 | Michael Soroka | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
41 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @LAD | |
42 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | COL | |
43 | Clay Holmes | NYM | @ATL | |
44 | Erick Fedde | STL | @CWS | |
45 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIN | |
46 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @DET, TEX | |
47 | Trevor Williams | WAS | COL | |
48 | Jose Quintana | MIL | @MIN | |
49 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CWS, CIN | |
50 | Jake Irvin | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
51 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CHC | |
52 | Chad Patrick | MIL | @CHC, @MIN | |
53 | Griffin Canning | NYM | @PHI | |
54 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | SD | |
55 | Brady Singer | CIN | @STL | |
56 | NL Reliever | |||
57 | Colin Rea | CHC | SEA | |
58 | Mick Abel | PHI | @MIA, NYM | |
59 | Wade Miley | CIN | @STL | |
60 | Eury Perez | MIA | ATL | |
61 | Bryce Elder | ATL | NYM | |
62 | Quinn Priester | MIL | @MIN | |
63 | Justin Verlander | SF | CLE | |
64 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @CHC | |
65 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @LAD | |
66 | Kyle Freeland | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
67 | Valente Bellozo | MIA | PHI | |
68 | Chase Dollander | COL | @WAS | |
69 | German Marquez | COL | @WAS | |
70 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | PHI | |
71 | Mike Burrows | PIT | TEX | |
72 | Paul Blackburn | NYM | @ATL | |
73 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @LAD, KC | |
74 | Janson Junk | MIA | ATL | |
75 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @DET | |
76 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @LAD | |
77 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
78 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | |
79 | Matt Sauer | LAD | SD |