THURSDAY NIGHT
Dallas (+8) at Philadelphia, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Maybe one day, the Cowboys will have a smooth offseason, or at least someone in charge who doesn't wear three hats as an owner/GM/dictator. The Micah Parsons trade was a dumb one from a "trying to win football games" perspective, and while you can maybe excuse it from a salary cap perspective, that just puts the onus on Dak Prescott's absurd contract, and years-long negotiating failures that also had the team paying more than it needed to for the likes of CeeDee Lamb. Even so, other franchises seem to figure out ways to keep kicking the salary-cap can down the road while their competitive window is open. Instead, Dallas decided that getting rid of an elite pass rusher on a Hall of Fame track was the best option. Uh huh. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer has a long, but remarkably undistinguished, track record as an OC, and while the term "nepo baby" doesn't get used much in the NFL, he might be the poster boy for it. He did oversee a couple top running attacks with the Jets and Seahawks, to be fair, and without benefit of an elite RB in either backfield (those were the Chris Carson days in Seattle, post-Marshawn Lynch), but Schottenheimer heads into 2025 expecting Javonte Williams and his 3.6 yards per carry since his knee injury to be a viable option, which is asking a lot. A healthy Dak Prescott
THURSDAY NIGHT
Dallas (+8) at Philadelphia, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Maybe one day, the Cowboys will have a smooth offseason, or at least someone in charge who doesn't wear three hats as an owner/GM/dictator. The Micah Parsons trade was a dumb one from a "trying to win football games" perspective, and while you can maybe excuse it from a salary cap perspective, that just puts the onus on Dak Prescott's absurd contract, and years-long negotiating failures that also had the team paying more than it needed to for the likes of CeeDee Lamb. Even so, other franchises seem to figure out ways to keep kicking the salary-cap can down the road while their competitive window is open. Instead, Dallas decided that getting rid of an elite pass rusher on a Hall of Fame track was the best option. Uh huh. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer has a long, but remarkably undistinguished, track record as an OC, and while the term "nepo baby" doesn't get used much in the NFL, he might be the poster boy for it. He did oversee a couple top running attacks with the Jets and Seahawks, to be fair, and without benefit of an elite RB in either backfield (those were the Chris Carson days in Seattle, post-Marshawn Lynch), but Schottenheimer heads into 2025 expecting Javonte Williams and his 3.6 yards per carry since his knee injury to be a viable option, which is asking a lot. A healthy Dak Prescott should still be about to generate some offense, and George Pickens gives him a true downfield weapon to complement Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson, but new DC Matt Eberflus isn't known for scheming up a strong pass rush to replace Parsons. Instead, his units tend to boast high tackle totals from his linebackers, but he may not have the personnel in the middle he needs to make things click unless DeMarvion Overshown proves he can overcome a second serious knee injury. It's a mostly mismatched roster all around in Dallas aside from the passing game, which doesn't bode well for 2025.
The defending champs, on the other hand, remain a well-oiled machine under Howie Roseman, even as they dealt with the usual talent drain that comes from success in the NFL. Vic Fangio returns as DC, but last year's OC Kellen Moore left for a head-coaching gig in New Orleans and was replaced by Kevin Patullo, who's been in the organization since 2021 as the passing game coordinator. Mekhi Becton left a hole at right guard that could be filled by 2023 third-round pick Tyler Steen, and Lane Johnson is a year older, but the Eagles' O-line is still one of the better units in the league. The biggest turnover was in the secondary, though, as a bunch of aging veterans got cleared out to open up snaps for younger players like Cooper DeJean and Kelee Ringo. The offense's skill players, on the other hand, are basically unchanged other than on the margins. Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are as formidable a quartet as the league has to offer, and while there are obvious concerns about regression or injury for Saquon after his absurd 2024 workload, the Brotherly Shove is at least still legal. While you can come up with reasons why they won't get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in the last four years, it's also very easy to imagine them just rolling right through the NFC once again.
Key Info
DAL injury report: LB DeMarvion Overshown (PUP, knee)
PHI injury report: LB Nakobe Dean (PUP, knee)
Slight Lean: WR CeeDee Lamb (PHI 24th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG Lean: RB Saquon Barkley (DAL 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2024)
STRONG Lean: QB Jalen Hurts (DAL 32nd in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2024)
Slight Fade: WR A.J. Brown (DAL ninth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG Fade: WR George Pickens (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR2, second in deep throw DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
NFL weather report: 30-40 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 26-26, average margin of victory 18 points. This NFC East rivalry has a history of blowouts — the last three games, and six of the last 10, have been decided by 20 points or more, including a combined 75-13 mauling across both games of Philly's sweep in 2024.
The Scoop: Williams manages 60 yards in his Cowboys debut, while KaVontae Turpin scores on a jet sweep. Prescott throws for 230 yards and a TD to Lamb. Barkley thunders for 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Hurts also adds a score on the ground while throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Smith. Eagles 34-20
FRIDAY NIGHT
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (+3) in Sao Paulo, o/u 45.5
Friday, 8 p.m. EDT
There's no empirical evidence of a Super Bowl hangover, but February's loss to the Eagles did feel like it might have been the end of an era for Kansas City. The team has represented the AFC in five of the last six Super Bowls, winning three, but the offense is a shell of what it was — KC led the league with 6.4 yards per play in 2022; last year that mark had tumbled to 5.1, ranking a lowly 23rd — and Travis Kelce appears close to riding off into the sunset to marry a showgirl. DC Steve Spagnuolo and a defense led by Nick Bolton, George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie and Chris Jones are now the engine of the team, with Patrick Mahomes still capable of great things, just maybe not as often. The AFC West is getting more competitive too, and while I won't go so far as to say their 10-season streak of division titles is in serious jeopardy yet, it wouldn't be a huge shock if the winner didn't get determined until the final week or two rather than being a romp. Having Xavier Worthy turn out to be Tyreek Hill 2.0, with Rashee Rice (once he's finally allowed back on the field) being the replacement for Kelce as Mahomes' most dangerous weapon, would go a long way toward making those sorts of concerns seem silly.
One of the teams trying to topple Andy Reid's crew is the one coached by Jim Harbaugh. (Side note: how ridiculously stacked is the coaching pedigree in the AFC West now? Reid, Harbaugh, Sean Payton and Pete Carroll all have winning percentages above .600 in the NFL and have a combined five Super Bowls rings, with five other conference championships, on their resumes.) The Chargers won 11 games last year, their highest total since 2018, but a poor showing in the wild-card round against the Texans kept Harbaugh tinkering with the roster ahead of his second season in charge. Gone is the Ravens retread backfield of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, with OC Greg Roman now having former Steeler lead back Najee Harris and 2025 22nd overall pick Omarion Hampton to lead the run-heavy offense. Justin Herbert is coming off a season in which he threw only three interceptions on 504 attempts in 17 regular-season games, and his receiving corps got both younger and older, as Keenan Allen came back home this offseason to support last year's rookie sensation Ladd McConkey, while 2025 second-round pick Tre' Harris and fifth-round pick KeAndre Lambert-Smith fight for Quentin Johnston's spot. It's a potentially strong passing game, if it didn't have a firm ceiling due to Roman's scheme. The loss of Rashawn Slater could hurt the unit's overall efficiency, but maybe no roster was better equipped to handle the loss of an All-Pro left tackle as Joe Alt simply flipped over from right tackle, and adequate veteran Trey Pipkins got plugged in at RT. Harbaugh's defense led the league in fewest points allowed — a ranking more due to a slower pace of play than the team's good, but not great, No. 13 rankings in yards per play and total turnovers — and a ground-and-pound philosophy with occasional splash plays is a formula for consistent success. Whether it's enough to dethrone KC is a very different question.
One final note on this one, since the game's in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Kansas City is 3-0 in international games, including a 24-17 win over the Bolts in Mexico City in 2019. The Chargers are 1-2, with their only win coming back in 2018 (20-19 over the Titans in London.)
Key Info
KC injury report: WR Rashee Rice (out, suspension)
LAC injury report: LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee)
STRONG Lean: WR Hollywood Brown (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
Slight Lean: WR Ladd McConkey (KC 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG Fade: RB Isiah Pacheco (LAC first in passing DVOA vs. RB, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2024)
Slight Fade: RB Omarion Hampton (KC third in passing DVOA vs. RB, seventh in YPC allowed in 2024)
NFL weather report: none
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 24-22 KC, average margin of victory six points. KC has won seven consecutive meetings, and seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a single score.
The Scoop: Pacheco grinds out 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Worthy, Brown and Kelce. Hampton manages 80 combined yards in his pro debut. Herbert throws for 260 yards and two TDs, one each to McConkey and Tyler Conklin, while a JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble leads to a Daiyan Henley score. Cameron Dicker boots the game-winning FG late in the fourth quarter. Chargers 27-24
2024 record: 183-89 (.673), 141-128-3 ATS (.524), 144-126-2 o/u (.533)
